Statistical Analysis of Tropical Volcanic Events ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Statistical Analysis of Tropical Volcanic Events LAST UPDATE: 5/2003 (Original Receipt by WDC Paleo, includes April 2003 updates not in GRL) CONTRIBUTORS: Caspar Ammann, NCAR and Philippe Naveau, University of Colorado IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2003-033 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Ammann, C.M. and P. Naveau, 2003, Statistical Analysis of Tropical Volcanic Events, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2003-033. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Ammann, C.M. and P. Naveau, 2003, Statistical analysis of tropical explosive volcanism occurrences over the last 6 centuries, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, No. 5, 1210, doi:10.1029/2002GL016388, 2003 GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Global PERIOD OF RECORD: 1400 - 1998 AD FUNDING SOURCES: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation, C.M.A. through grants from NSF and the Department of Energy to R.S. Bradley at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and P.N. through the Geophysical Statistics Project. ABSTRACT: Explosive volcanic eruptions are very violent events, each with clearly individual characteristics. Instead of looking at specific eruptions, we focus here on the long term record of tropical explosive volcanism. To assess the distribution of volcanic occurrences over several centuries we employ sulfate measurements from polar ice cores. From these measurements, we compile a binary time series of sulfate deposition events that left a signature at both poles. Because of the binary nature of this problem, a series of logistic statistical models are compared to best represent the data. These models demonstrate the existence of a strong multi-decadal variation in the occurrence of sulfur rich tropical eruptions. More precisely, a combination of a trend and a cycle explains best the evolution of eruption history. To corroborate this result with a record independent of the ice cores, we confirm these long-term variations with the most recent Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). DESCRIPTION: A large number of well-dated ice cores were compiled, and sulfate spikes present in cores from both hemispheres are interpreted to indicate climatically important eruptions in the tropics (30°N–30°S). (Please see ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/climate_forcing/volcanic_aerosols/ammann2003_eruptions.pdf for listing of individual eruptions) DATA: Binary time series of sulfate deposition events. 0= no tropical eruption 1= tropical eruption producing sulfate signature in ice cores in both hemispheres Year Eruption 1400 0 1401 0 1402 0 1403 0 1404 0 1405 0 1406 0 1407 0 1408 0 1409 0 1410 0 1411 0 1412 0 1413 0 1414 0 1415 0 1416 0 1417 0 1418 0 1419 0 1420 0 1421 0 1422 0 1423 0 1424 0 1425 0 1426 0 1427 0 1428 0 1429 0 1430 0 1431 0 1432 0 1433 0 1434 0 1435 0 1436 0 1437 0 1438 0 1439 0 1440 0 1441 0 1442 0 1443 1 1444 0 1445 0 1446 0 1447 0 1448 0 1449 0 1450 0 1451 0 1452 1 1453 0 1454 0 1455 0 1456 0 1457 0 1458 0 1459 1 1460 0 1461 0 1462 0 1463 1 1464 0 1465 0 1466 0 1467 0 1468 0 1469 0 1470 0 1471 0 1472 0 1473 0 1474 0 1475 0 1476 0 1477 0 1478 0 1479 0 1480 0 1481 0 1482 0 1483 0 1484 0 1485 0 1486 0 1487 0 1488 0 1489 0 1490 1 1491 0 1492 0 1493 0 1494 0 1495 0 1496 0 1497 0 1498 0 1499 0 1500 0 1501 0 1502 0 1503 0 1504 1 1505 0 1506 0 1507 0 1508 0 1509 0 1510 0 1511 0 1512 1 1513 0 1514 0 1515 0 1516 0 1517 0 1518 0 1519 0 1520 0 1521 0 1522 1 1523 0 1524 0 1525 0 1526 0 1527 0 1528 0 1529 0 1530 0 1531 0 1532 0 1533 0 1534 0 1535 0 1536 0 1537 0 1538 0 1539 0 1540 0 1541 0 1542 0 1543 0 1544 0 1545 0 1546 0 1547 0 1548 0 1549 0 1550 0 1551 0 1552 0 1553 0 1554 1 1555 0 1556 0 1557 0 1558 0 1559 0 1560 0 1561 0 1562 0 1563 0 1564 0 1565 0 1566 0 1567 0 1568 1 1569 0 1570 0 1571 1 1572 0 1573 0 1574 0 1575 0 1576 0 1577 0 1578 0 1579 0 1580 0 1581 0 1582 0 1583 0 1584 0 1585 0 1586 1 1587 0 1588 0 1589 0 1590 0 1591 0 1592 0 1593 0 1594 0 1595 1 1596 0 1597 0 1598 0 1599 0 1600 1 1601 0 1602 0 1603 0 1604 0 1605 1 1606 0 1607 0 1608 0 1609 0 1610 0 1611 0 1612 0 1613 0 1614 0 1615 0 1616 0 1617 0 1618 0 1619 1 1620 0 1621 0 1622 1 1623 0 1624 0 1625 0 1626 0 1627 0 1628 0 1629 0 1630 0 1631 0 1632 0 1633 0 1634 0 1635 0 1636 0 1637 0 1638 0 1639 0 1640 0 1641 1 1642 0 1643 0 1644 0 1645 0 1646 0 1647 0 1648 0 1649 0 1650 0 1651 0 1652 0 1653 0 1654 0 1655 0 1656 0 1657 0 1658 0 1659 0 1660 1 1661 0 1662 0 1663 0 1664 0 1665 1 1666 0 1667 0 1668 0 1669 0 1670 0 1671 0 1672 0 1673 0 1674 1 1675 0 1676 0 1677 0 1678 0 1679 0 1680 1 1681 0 1682 0 1683 0 1684 0 1685 0 1686 0 1687 0 1688 0 1689 0 1690 0 1691 0 1692 0 1693 1 1694 0 1695 0 1696 0 1697 0 1698 0 1699 0 1700 0 1701 0 1702 0 1703 0 1704 0 1705 0 1706 0 1707 0 1708 0 1709 0 1710 0 1711 0 1712 1 1713 0 1714 0 1715 0 1716 0 1717 0 1718 0 1719 0 1720 0 1721 1 1722 0 1723 0 1724 0 1725 0 1726 0 1727 0 1728 1 1729 0 1730 0 1731 0 1732 0 1733 0 1734 0 1735 0 1736 0 1737 1 1738 0 1739 0 1740 0 1741 0 1742 0 1743 0 1744 1 1745 0 1746 0 1747 0 1748 0 1749 1 1750 0 1751 0 1752 1 1753 0 1754 0 1755 0 1756 0 1757 0 1758 0 1759 0 1760 1 1761 0 1762 0 1763 0 1764 0 1765 0 1766 0 1767 0 1768 0 1769 0 1770 0 1771 0 1772 0 1773 0 1774 1 1775 0 1776 0 1777 0 1778 0 1779 0 1780 0 1781 0 1782 0 1783 0 1784 0 1785 0 1786 0 1787 0 1788 0 1789 1 1790 0 1791 0 1792 0 1793 0 1794 1 1795 0 1796 0 1797 0 1798 0 1799 0 1800 0 1801 0 1802 0 1803 0 1804 0 1805 0 1806 0 1807 0 1808 1 1809 0 1810 0 1811 0 1812 0 1813 1 1814 0 1815 1 1816 0 1817 0 1818 0 1819 0 1820 0 1821 0 1822 0 1823 1 1824 0 1825 0 1826 0 1827 0 1828 0 1829 0 1830 0 1831 1 1832 0 1833 0 1834 0 1835 1 1836 0 1837 0 1838 0 1839 0 1840 0 1841 0 1842 0 1843 0 1844 0 1845 0 1846 0 1847 0 1848 0 1849 0 1850 0 1851 0 1852 0 1853 0 1854 0 1855 0 1856 0 1857 0 1858 0 1859 0 1860 0 1861 1 1862 0 1863 0 1864 0 1865 0 1866 0 1867 0 1868 0 1869 0 1870 0 1871 0 1872 0 1873 0 1874 0 1875 0 1876 0 1877 0 1878 0 1879 0 1880 1 1881 0 1882 0 1883 1 1884 0 1885 0 1886 0 1887 0 1888 0 1889 0 1890 1 1891 0 1892 0 1893 0 1894 0 1895 0 1896 0 1897 0 1898 0 1899 0 1900 0 1901 0 1902 1 1903 1 1904 0 1905 0 1906 0 1907 0 1908 0 1909 0 1910 0 1911 1 1912 0 1913 0 1914 0 1915 0 1916 0 1917 0 1918 0 1919 0 1920 0 1921 0 1922 0 1923 0 1924 0 1925 0 1926 0 1927 0 1928 1 1929 0 1930 0 1931 0 1932 0 1933 0 1934 0 1935 0 1936 0 1937 0 1938 0 1939 0 1940 0 1941 0 1942 0 1943 0 1944 0 1945 0 1946 0 1947 0 1948 0 1949 0 1950 0 1951 0 1952 0 1953 1 1954 0 1955 0 1956 0 1957 0 1958 0 1959 0 1960 0 1961 0 1962 0 1963 1 1964 0 1965 0 1966 0 1967 0 1968 1 1969 0 1970 0 1971 0 1972 0 1973 0 1974 1 1975 0 1976 0 1977 0 1978 0 1979 0 1980 0 1981 0 1982 1 1983 0 1984 0 1985 0 1986 0 1987 0 1988 0 1989 0 1990 0 1991 1 1992 0 1993 0 1994 0 1995 0 1996 0 1997 0 1998 0