Multiproxy El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Event Reconstructions ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE ORIGINAL REFERENCE WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Multiproxy El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Event Reconstructions LAST UPDATE: 3/2009 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTOR: Joëlle L. Gergis, University of Melbourne, Australia. IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2009-020 WDC PALEO CONTRIBUTION SERIES CITATION: Gergis, J.L. and A.M. Fowler. 2009. Multiproxy El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Event Reconstructions IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2009-020. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Gergis, J.L. and A.M. Fowler. 2009. A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change. Climatic Change 92:343–387. DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9476-z ABSTRACT: Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Niño (La Niña) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Niña event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Western and Eastern Pacific PERIOD OF RECORD: 1525 AD - 2002 AD FUNDING SOURCES: AMF was supported by the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund (Contract UOA108). DESCRIPTION: Multi-proxy El Niño and La Niña event reconstructions, 1525-2002 AD, from Table 9 of Gergis and Fowler 2009. Tree-ring, coral, ice core and documentary records used are detailed in Table 1 in Gergis and Fowler 2009. DATA: 1. Gergis and Fowler 2009 El Niño event reconstructions Column 1: El Niño event, Calendar Year (AD) Column 2: Proxy Ratio - number of proxy records indicating ENSO response, relative to all proxy records available for the year Column 3: Mean Skill of all proxies used to reconstruct an ENSO event year Column 4: Quality Adjusted magnitude. Takes replication into account Column 5: Magnitude Classification. E-Extreme VS=Very Strong S=Strong M=Moderate W=Weak El Niño PR MS MQ MC 2002 1/1, 0.74 0.74 E 1997 1/3, 0.76 0.25 W 1992 3/5, 0.73 0.44 VS 1991 3/5, 0.7 0.42 VS 1987 3/6, 0.73 0.37 VS 1985 2/7, 0.78 0.22 W 1983 6/9, 0.72 0.48 E 1982 6/10, 0.78 0.46 E 1980 4/10, 0.7 0.28 M 1979 4/11, 0.79 0.29 M 1977 3/11, 0.74 0.20; W 1976 5/11, 0.71 0.32 M 1973 3/11, 0.74 0.2 W 1972 5/11, 0.76 0.35 M 1969 5/11, 0.73 0.33 S 1968 5/11, 0.76 0.34 S 1967 3/11, 0.7 0.19 W 1966 4/11, 0.8 0.29 M 1965 5/11, 0.76 0.35 S 1964 5/11, 0.71 0.32 S 1959 3/11, 0.75 0.2 W 1958 4/11, 0.74 0.27 M 1957 5/11, 0.71 0.32 S 1952 3/11, 0.8 0.22 W 1951 4/11, 0.79 0.29 M 1949 3/11, 0.75 0.2 W 1947 3/11, 0.71 0.19 W 1944 5/11, 0.72 0.33 S 1942 7/11, 0.72 0.46 E 1941 7/11, 0.76 0.48 E 1940 6/11, 0.72 0.39 VS 1939 4/11, 0.77 0.28 M 1938 4/11, 0.72 0.26 M 1937 3/11, 0.7 0.19 W 1935 3/11, 0.72 0.26 W 1933 3/11, 0.73 0.2 W 1931 5/11, 0.75 0.34 S 1930 4/11, 0.74 0.27 M 1926 8/11, 0.74 0.54 E 1925 5/11, 0.78 0.35 S 1924 3/11, 0.73 0.2 W 1920 3/11, 0.82 0.22 W 1919 5/11, 0.75 0.34 S 1918 5/11, 0.79 0.36 VS 1915 6/11, 0.8 0.43 VS 1914 6/11, 0.74 0.4 VS 1913 6/11, 0.79 0.43 VS 1912 6/11, 0.74 0.4 VS 1911 4/11, 0.79 0.29 M 1906 3/11, 0.73 0.2 W 1905 7/11, 0.76 0.48 E 1904 3/11, 0.83 0.22 W 1903 3/11, 0.7 0.19 W 1902 6/11, 0.76 0.41 VS 1901 4/11, 0.82 0.3 S 1900 6/11, 0.75 0.41 VS 1899 4/11, 0.82 0.3 S 1897 5/11, 0.77 0.3 S 1896 4/11, 0.76 0.27 M 1891 6/11, 0.77 0.42 VS 1889 3/11, 0.77 0.21 W 1888 6/11, 0.73 0.4 VS 1885 5/11, 0.77 0.35 S 1884 3/11, 0.73 0.2 W 1881 4/11, 0.74 0.27 M 1878 4/11, 0.72 0.26 M 1877 5/11, 0.8 0.37 VS 1876 3/11, 0.79 0.21 W 1874 3/11, 0.73 0.2 W 1868 5/11, 0.79 0.36 VS 1866 5/11, 0.79 0.36 VS 1865 4/11, 0.8 0.29 M 1864 3/11, 0.83 0.22 W 1860 3/11, 0.84 0.23 W 1858 4/11, 0.73 0.27 M 1857 4/11, 0.71 0.26 M 1856 4/11, 0.74 0.27 M 1853 5/11, 0.82 0.37 VS 1852 3/11, 0.76 0.21 W 1848 3/11, 0.74 0.2 W 1847 3/11, 0.74 0.2 W 1846 3/11, 0.75 0.2 W 1845 6/11, 0.75 0.41 VS 1844 4/11, 0.79 0.29 M 1838 3/11, 0.8 0.22 W 1837 4/11, 0.82 0.3 S 1833 5/11, 0.78 0.35 S 1832 3/11, 0.8 0.22 W 1829 3/11, 0.74 0.2 W 1824 4/11, 0.79 0.29 M 1817 4/10, 0.75 0.3 S 1816 3/10, 0.78 0.23 W 1815 3/10, 0.77 0.23 W 1814 3/10, 0.78 0.23 W 1812 4/10, 0.82 0.33 S 1807 4/10, 0.75 0.3 S 1806 5/10, 0.79 0.4 VS 1804 3/10, 0.78 0.23 W 1803 4/10, 0.82 0.33 S 1799 5/11, 0.76 0.34 S 1798 3/11, 0.74 0.2 W 1794 4/11, 0.74 0.27 M 1793 4/11, 0.74 0.27 M 1792 3/11, 0.72 0.2 W 1791 6/11, 0.78 0.42 VS 1784 3/11, 0.72 0.2 W 1783 4/11, 0.8 0.29 M 1782 3/11, 0.8 0.22 W 1777 3/11, 0.76 0.21 W 1770 5/11, 0.79 0.36 VS 1769 4/11, 0.79 0.29 M 1768 3/11, 0.75 0.2 W 1766 3/11, 0.76 0.21 W 1754 3/11, 0.75 0.2 W 1748 4/11, 0.77 0.28 M 1747 4/11, 0.81 0.29 M 1746 3/11, 0.83 0.22 W 1744 3/11, 0.83 0.22 W 1738 3/11, 0.71 0.19 W 1737 7/11, 0.79 0.5 E 1734 3/11, 0.78 0.21 W 1729 3/11, 0.73 0.2 W 1728 5/11, 0.78 0.35 S 1726 3/10, 0.75 0.23 W 1724 3/10, 0.77 0.23 W 1723 6/10, 0.76 0.46 E 1722 4/10, 0.73 0.29 M 1721 3/10, 0.76 0.23 W 1720 3/10, 0.77 0.23 W 1719 4/9, 0.75 0.33 S 1718 5/9, 0.79 0.44 E 1714 3/10, 0.74 0.22 W 1713 4/10, 0.74 0.3 M 1712 3/10, 0.76 0.23 W 1710 3/10, 0.75 0.23 W 1709 3/10, 0.8 0.24 W 1707 3/10, 0.78 0.23 W 1700 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1695 3/9, 0.73 0.24 W 1694 4/9, 0.72 0.32 S 1692 3/9, 0.73 0.24 W 1687 5/9, 0.79 0.43 VS 1684 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1669 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1665 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1661 4/9, 0.79 0.35 S 1660 5/9, 0.79 0.44 VS 1659 3/9, 0.84 0.28 M 1652 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1651 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1650 6/9, 0.79 0.52 E 1648 3/9, 0.82 0.27 M 1646 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1642 3/9, 0.74 0.24 W 1641 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1639 3/9, 0.72 0.24 W 1638 3/9, 0.77 0.26 W 1635 4/9, 0.72 0.32 M 1630 3/9, 0.83 0.28 M 1621 3/9, 0.76 0.25 W 1620 3/9, 0.73 0.24 W 1619 4/9, 0.77 0.34 S 1618 5/9, 0.79 0.44 VS 1614 3/10, 0.83 0.25 W 1609 3/9, 0.75 0.25 W 1608 5/9, 0.76 0.42 VS 1607 5/9, 0.73 0.41 VS 1601 3/9, 0.78 0.26 M 1597 3/9, 0.8 0.27 M 1596 5/9, 0.77 0.34 S 1594 4/9, 0.77 0.34 S 1591 4/9, 0.74 0.33 S 1585 4/8, 0.74 0.37 VS 1584 3/8, 0.7 0.26 M 1583 3/8, 0.72 0.27 M 1574 4/8, 0.74 0.37 VS 1567 3/8, 0.78 0.28 M 1565 4/8, 0.75 0.38 VS 1563 3/8, 0.75 0.28 M 1559 4/8, 0.75 0.38 VS 1558 3/8, 0.78 0.29 M 1556 4/8, 0.75 0.4 VS 1554 4/8, 0.79 0.3 S 1544 4/8, 0.75 0.38 VS 1540 3/8, 0.83 0.31 S 1539 3/8, 0.74 0.28 M 1527 3/8, 0.73 0.27 M 1526 4/8, 0.72 0.36 VS 1525 4/8, 0.72 0.36 VS 2. Gergis and Fowler 2009 La Niña event reconstructions Column 1: La Niña event, Calendar Year (AD) Column 2: Proxy Ratio - number of proxy records indicating ENSO response relative to all proxy records available for the year Column 3: Mean Skill of all proxies used to reconstruct an ENSO event year Column 4: Quality Adjusted magnitude. Takes replication into account Column 5: Magnitude Classification. E-Extreme VS=Very Strong S=Strong M=Moderate W=Weak La Niña PR MS MQ MC 2000 1/2, 0.73 0.37 S 1998 3/4, 0.68 0.51 E 1996 2/5, 0.72 0.29 M 1995 3/6, 0.72 0.33 S 1990 4/7, 0.69 0.39 VS 1989 5/7, 0.69 0.49 VS 1988 3/7, 0.67 0.29 M 1986 3/7, 0.68 0.29 M 1985 3/8, 0.63 0.24 W 1984 4/10, 0.67 0.27 M 1975 5/9, 0.66 0.36 S 1974 9/11, 0.68 0.56 E 1973 4/11, 0.67 0.24 W 1972 4/11, 0.68 0.25 W 1971 7/11, 0.67 0.43 VS 1970 5/11, 0.65 0.3 M 1968 4/11, 0.67 0.24 W 1963 4/11, 0.68 0.25 W 1962 4/11, 0.67 0.25 W 1960 4/11, 0.67 0.25 W 1959 4/11, 0.69 0.25 W 1958 5/11, 0.66 0.3 M 1957 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1956 7/11, 0.68 0.43 VS 1955 6/11, 0.67 0.36 S 1953 9/11, 0.68 0.56 E 1951 5/11, 0.68 0.31 M 1950 8/11, 0.69 0.5 E 1946 6/11, 0.69 0.38 S 1945 4/11, 0.69 0.25 W 1943 4/11, 0.66 0.24 W 1934 3/11, 0.69 0.25 W 1932 4/11, 0.67 0.24 W 1923 5/11, 0.68 0.31 W 1922 6/11, 0.69 0.38 S 1921 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1918 6/11, 0.69 0.38 S 1917 7/11, 0.67 0.43 VS 1916 6/11, 0.68 0.32 S 1910 8/11, 0.68 0.44 VS 1909 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1908 6/11, 0.68 0.32 S 1907 5/11, 0.67 0.31 M 1904 5/11, 0.68 0.26 W 1896 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1894 8/11, 0.7 0.51 E 1893 7/11, 0.69 0.39 VS 1892 7/11, 0.68 0.38 S 1891 4/11, 0.69 0.25 W 1890 6/11, 0.67 0.36 S 1887 7/11, 0.68 0.38 VS 1886 5/11, 0.67 0.3 M 1880 7/11, 0.69 0.38 VS 1879 9/11, 0.69 0.51 E 1878 4/11, 0.67 0.24 W 1875 6/11, 0.68 0.32 S 1874 5/11, 0.71 0.32 S 1873 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1872 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1871 6/11, 0.72 0.39 VS 1870 7/11, 0.69 0.39 VS 1868 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1867 6/11, 0.69 0.38 S 1866 5/11, 0.67 0.31 M 1864 4/11, 0.71 0.26 W 1863 7/11, 0.68 0.44 VS 1862 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1861 8/11, 0.69 0.5 VS 1860 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1857 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1851 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1850 4/11, 0.67 0.24 W 1849 5/11, 0.68 0.31 M 1848 4/11, 0.69 0.25 W 1847 6/11, 0.69 0.38 S 1843 5/11, 0.7 0.26 W 1841 4/11, 0.68 0.25 W 1840 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1825 5/11, 0.68 0.31 M 1823 4/10, 0.71 0.28 M 1820 5/10, 0.7 0.35 S 1819 5/10, 0.69 0.35 S 1813 4/10, 0.71 0.29 M 1811 5/10, 0.69 0.34 S 1810 5/10, 0.69 0.34 S 1809 5/10, 0.72 0.36 S 1808 7/10, 0.69 0.48 VS 1805 7/20, 0.69 0.49 VS 1802 7/10, 0.68 0.48 VS 1801 6/10, 0.69 0.42 VS 1798 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1797 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1795 4/11, 0.69 0.25 W 1790 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1789 4/11, 0.71 0.26 W 1788 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1787 6/11, 0.69 0.37 S 1786 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1785 4/11, 0.72 0.26 W 1782 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1780 5/11, 0.71 0.32 S 1779 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1778 4/11, 0.7 0.26 W 1776 4/11, 0.72 0.26 W 1773 4/11, 0.71 0.26 W 1772 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1765 6/11, 0.69 0.37 S 1763 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1761 5/11, 0.69 0.32 M 1758 4/11, 0.68 0.25 W 1757 6/11, 0.69 0.37 M 1756 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1755 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1754 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1753 6/11, 0.69 0.38 S 1752 7/11. 0.69 0.44 VS 1751 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1750 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1748 4/11, 0.7 0.26 W 1747 4/11, 0.72 0.26 W 1745 5/11, 0.71 0.32 S 1743 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1742 8/11, 0.7 0.51 E 1741 5/11, 0.7 0.32 S 1740 7/11, 0.7 0.45 VS 1739 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1736 4/11, 0.72 0.26 W 1735 4/11, 0.72 0.26 W 1733 6/11, 0.7 0.38 VS 1732 5/11, 0.69 0.31 M 1731 5/11, 0.68 0.31 M 1730 4/11, 0.7 0.25 W 1725 4/10, 0.68 0.27 M 1724 4/10, 0.69 0.28 M 1716 5/10, 0.7 0.35 S 1715 5/10, 0.69 0.35 S 1709 4/10, 0.69 0.28 M 1708 5/10, 0.68 0.34 S 1702 4/10, 0.69 0.28 M 1701 4/10, 0.7 0.28. M 1696 5/9, 0.71 0.39 VS 1690 4/9, 0.69 0.31 M 1686 4/9, 0.7 0.31 M 1685 4/9, 0.72 0.32 S 1678 4/9, 0.7 0.31 M 1676 4/9, 0.72 0.32 S 1675 4/9, 0.69 0.3 M 1668 4/9, 0.69 0.31 M 1663 5/9, 0.69 0.39 VS 1658 4/9, 0.7 0.31 M 1654 5/8, 0.71 0.44 VS 1649 3/8, 0.7 0.26 W 1648 3/8, 0.72 0.27 W 1645 6/8, 0.69 0.52 E 1644 4/8, 0.69 0.34 S 1642 4/8, 0.7 0.35 S 1641 5/8, 0.7 0.44 VS 1639 3/8, 0.71 0.27 M 1638 3/8, 0.72 0.27 M 1637 4/8, 0.71 0.35 S 1635 3/8, 0.7 0.27 W 1632 7/8, 0.69 0.61 E 1631 5/8, 0.7 0.44 VS 1630 4/8, 0.68 0.34 S 1629 4/8, 0.69 0.35 S 1628 3/8, 0.69 0.26 W 1627 3/8, 0.69 0.26 W 1626 5/8, 0.69 0.43 VS 1625 3/8, 0.72 0.27 M 1624 5/8, 0.71 0.45 VS 1623 5/8, 0.71 0.44 VS 1622 4/8, 0.69 0.34 S 1612 4/9, 0.7 0.31 M 1611 4/9, 0.7 0.35 S 1605 3/7, 0.69 0.3 M 1604 3/7, 0.69 0.3 M 1603 3/7, 0.68 0.29 M 1602 3/7, 0.68 0.29 M 1601 3/7, 0.7 0.3 M 1600 4/7, 0.7 0.4 VS 1597 3/7, 0.71 0.3 M 1593 3/7, 0.72 0.41 VS 1592 4/7, 0.71 0.4 VS 1590 3/7, 0.72 0.31 M 1584 4/6, 0.71 0.47 VS 1583 3/6, 0.71 0.36 S 1581 3/6, 0.69 0.35 S 1580 3/6, 0.69 0.35 S 1579 3/6, 0.71 0.36 S 1578 3/6, 0.71 0.36 S 1577 3/6, 0.7 0.35 S 1576 3/6, 0.71 0.36 S 1573 4/6, 0.7 0.58 E 1572 5/6, 0.7 0.58 E 1571 3/6, 0.69 0.35 S 1566 3/6, 0.7 0.35 S 1561 3/6, 0.71 0.35 S 1560 4/6, 0.7 0.23 VS 1549 3/6, 0.69 0.35 S 1548 3/6, 0.71 0.47 VS 1546 3/6, 0.7 0.35 S 1544 3/6, 0.7 0.35 S 1542 3/6, 0.72 0.36 S 1541 3/6, 0.71 0.36 VS 1540 3/6, 0.69 0.34 S 1538 3/6, 0.72 0.36 S 1535 3/6, 0.7 0.35 S 1533 6/6, 0.7 0.7 E 1532 4/6, 0.7 0.47 VS 1531 4/6, 0.7 0.47 VS 1528 5/6, 0.7 0.58 E