Coral-based Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Coral-based Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 10/2006 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTORS: Rob Wilson, University of Edinburgh. IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2006-093 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Wilson, R., et al. 2006. Coral-based Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2006-093. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Wilson, R., A. Tudhope, P. Brohan, K. Briffa, T. Osborn, and S. Tett. 2006. Two-hundred-fifty years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C10007, doi:10.1029/2005JC003188. ABSTRACT: Recent large-scale palaeoclimate reconstructions of past temperature have been essentially biased to the extratropics owing to a paucity of proxy data in tropical regions. Herein we describe the first coral-based reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the whole of the tropics (30N–30S). It was developed from 14 disparate coral records located in the Indian and Pacific oceans. Over the most replicated period, the reconstruction explains 57% of the tropical SST variance. However, the strength of this signal weakens markedly as the number of coral records decreases. The reconstruction is robust between 1850 and 1993, but some fidelity is indicated back as far as the mid 18th century. These results suggest that ambiguities in the low frequency domain of d18O measurements can be partially overcome by pooling together multiple time series from different locations around the tropics. Agreement with simulations from two general circulation models indicates that the late 20th century is likely the warmest period in the tropics for the last 250 years, and that this recent warming can only be explained by anthropogenic forcing. The high frequency variability is dominated by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. The reconstruction, owing to the small number of coral records, is unfortunately restricted both in time and space. Therefore we hope that this study will spur the palaeoclimate community to develop new and longer proxy series to improve the current meager data-base of temperature sensitive series in the tropics. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Tropics (30N–30S) PERIOD OF RECORD: 1751 - 1997 AD FUNDING SOURCES: European Union (grant EVK2-CT-2002-00160, SO&P); the two Hadley Centre authors were also funded by the Public Meteorological Service Research and Development Contract. DESCRIPTION: A total of 16 coral records, located in the Pacific and Indian oceans, that correlated at the 95% confidence limit with local 1 x 1 degree gridded annual (January–December) SST's were used to produce a large-scale mean tropical (30N–30S) SST reconstruction. 14 of the records are available from the NOAA/WDC Paleoclimatology website; 2 are unpublished. DATA: Coral-based Tropical (30N–30S) Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Year HadSST Coral SST recon 1751 -0.13 1752 -0.27 1753 -0.35 1754 -0.38 1755 -0.44 1756 -0.35 1757 -0.33 1758 -0.39 1759 -0.27 1760 -0.27 1761 -0.35 1762 -0.2 1763 -0.23 1764 -0.24 1765 -0.38 1766 -0.25 1767 -0.13 1768 -0.24 1769 -0.43 1770 -0.15 1771 -0.16 1772 -0.2 1773 -0.27 1774 -0.26 1775 -0.27 1776 -0.3 1777 -0.28 1778 -0.25 1779 -0.32 1780 -0.28 1781 -0.2 1782 -0.33 1783 -0.36 1784 -0.21 1785 -0.23 1786 -0.19 1787 -0.27 1788 -0.3 1789 -0.29 1790 -0.29 1791 -0.23 1792 -0.05 1793 -0.19 1794 -0.22 1795 -0.25 1796 -0.19 1797 -0.22 1798 -0.18 1799 -0.17 1800 -0.22 1801 -0.52 1802 -0.41 1803 -0.34 1804 -0.19 1805 -0.29 1806 -0.49 1807 -0.43 1808 -0.37 1809 -0.34 1810 -0.49 1811 -0.55 1812 -0.39 1813 -0.36 1814 -0.42 1815 -0.4 1816 -0.42 1817 -0.41 1818 -0.39 1819 -0.39 1820 -0.3 1821 -0.38 1822 -0.31 1823 -0.19 1824 -0.19 1825 -0.29 1826 -0.37 1827 -0.33 1828 -0.23 1829 -0.32 1830 -0.17 1831 -0.15 1832 -0.31 1833 -0.4 1834 -0.37 1835 -0.34 1836 -0.44 1837 -0.42 1838 -0.22 1839 -0.4 1840 -0.21 1841 -0.42 1842 -0.33 1843 -0.38 1844 -0.29 1845 -0.23 1846 -0.31 1847 -0.37 1848 -0.37 1849 -0.33 1850 -0.26 1851 -0.12 1852 -0.26 1853 -0.29 1854 -0.29 1855 -0.22 1856 -0.24 1857 -0.34 1858 -0.34 1859 -0.36 1860 -0.32 1861 -0.29 1862 -0.29 1863 -0.22 1864 -0.19 1865 -0.05 1866 -0.16 1867 -0.17 1868 -0.11 1869 -0.27 1870 -0.28 -0.26 1871 -0.25 -0.25 1872 -0.29 -0.23 1873 -0.34 -0.16 1874 -0.45 -0.18 1875 -0.29 -0.25 1876 -0.37 -0.2 1877 0.02 -0.07 1878 0.09 -0.04 1879 -0.25 -0.14 1880 -0.27 -0.25 1881 -0.13 -0.24 1882 -0.26 -0.37 1883 -0.24 -0.46 1884 -0.21 -0.39 1885 -0.17 -0.21 1886 -0.2 -0.31 1887 -0.32 -0.4 1888 -0.1 -0.12 1889 -0.09 -0.16 1890 -0.47 -0.35 1891 -0.22 -0.3 1892 -0.35 -0.33 1893 -0.39 -0.32 1894 -0.42 -0.33 1895 -0.18 -0.24 1896 -0.03 -0.14 1897 0 -0.22 1898 -0.25 -0.33 1899 -0.11 -0.24 1900 0.01 -0.17 1901 -0.13 -0.25 1902 -0.12 -0.14 1903 -0.27 -0.2 1904 -0.33 -0.23 1905 -0.16 -0.13 1906 -0.19 -0.18 1907 -0.34 -0.21 1908 -0.39 -0.29 1909 -0.38 -0.28 1910 -0.44 -0.39 1911 -0.4 -0.29 1912 -0.18 -0.12 1913 -0.29 -0.24 1914 -0.19 -0.12 1915 -0.04 -0.05 1916 -0.34 -0.28 1917 -0.42 -0.36 1918 -0.3 -0.19 1919 -0.12 -0.07 1920 -0.19 -0.17 1921 -0.24 -0.21 1922 -0.32 -0.26 1923 -0.29 -0.19 1924 -0.22 -0.25 1925 -0.2 -0.21 1926 0.06 -0.12 1927 -0.11 -0.21 1928 -0.14 -0.18 1929 -0.18 -0.2 1930 -0.06 -0.09 1931 0.06 -0.04 1932 -0.14 -0.12 1933 -0.19 -0.21 1934 -0.18 -0.17 1935 -0.14 -0.14 1936 -0.05 -0.09 1937 0.04 -0.09 1938 -0.05 -0.12 1939 -0.09 -0.04 1940 0.09 -0.05 1941 0.25 0.08 1942 -0.05 0.02 1943 -0.07 -0.15 1944 0.14 -0.18 1945 0.07 -0.14 1946 -0.12 -0.09 1947 -0.13 -0.13 1948 -0.14 -0.07 1949 -0.17 -0.16 1950 -0.29 -0.27 1951 -0.12 -0.16 1952 -0.01 -0.03 1953 0 -0.06 1954 -0.22 -0.14 1955 -0.33 -0.17 1956 -0.3 -0.19 1957 0.03 -0.01 1958 0.1 0.04 1959 0.03 -0.03 1960 0.01 -0.13 1961 -0.05 -0.07 1962 -0.09 -0.07 1963 0.03 0.01 1964 -0.18 -0.12 1965 -0.12 0.03 1966 0 0.07 1967 -0.14 -0.05 1968 -0.06 -0.12 1969 0.23 0.05 1970 -0.03 -0.07 1971 -0.28 -0.17 1972 0.07 0.04 1973 0.05 -0.04 1974 -0.21 -0.09 1975 -0.28 -0.14 1976 -0.16 0.03 1977 0.03 0.08 1978 -0.06 0.12 1979 0.07 0.1 1980 0.1 0.16 1981 0.02 0.1 1982 0.06 0.12 1983 0.24 0.07 1984 0.02 0.05 1985 -0.07 0.01 1986 0.06 0.12 1987 0.36 0.2 1988 0.2 0.13 1989 0.01 0.05 1990 0.17 0.16 1991 0.17 0.22 1992 0.1 0.2 1993 0.15 0.19 1994 0.14 0.19 1995 0.29 0.16 1996 0.19 0.08 1997 0.36 0.23 1998 0.46 1999 0.08 2000 0.07 2001 0.22 2002 0.32 2003 0.36