Lago Plomo Varve 470 Year Winter Precipitation Reconstruction Elbert, J.; Grosjean, M.; von Gunten, L.; Urrutia, R.; Fischer, D.; Wartenburger, R.; Ariztegui, D.; Fujak, M. Elbert, J. Grosjean, M. von Gunten, L. Urrutia, R. Fischer, D. Wartenburger, R. Ariztegui, D. Fujak, M. PAGES 2k Network PAGES LOTRED SA2k Precipitation Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|paleolimnology (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|paleolimnology (precipitation,null,null,millimeter per month,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,based on mass accumulation rate) earth science/paleoclimate/paleolimnology (varve thickness,sediment,null,millimeter,null,paleolimnology,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/paleolimnology (accumulation rate,sediment,null,milligram per square centimeter per year,null,paleolimnology,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|paleolimnology (precipitation,null,97.5% confidence interval lower bound,millimeter per month,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,based on mass accumulation rate) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|paleolimnology (precipitation,null,97.5% confidence interval upper bound,millimeter per month,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,based on mass accumulation rate) earth science/paleoclimate/paleolimnology earth science/paleoclimate/paleolimnology (Lago Plomo>LATITUDE -46.9833>LONGITUDE -72.8667) High-resolution climate reconstructions from a range of natural archives across the world are fundamental to place current climate change into perspective. Paleoclimate records for the Southern Hemisphere are scarce and only a few quantitative high-resolution reconstructions exist for the past millennium. We present a record of annually laminated sediments of Lago Plomo (46°59'S, 72°52'W, 203 m a.s.l.) located east of the Northern Patagonian Ice Field (NPI). Radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs, 14C AMS) is consistent with counts of millimetre-scale laminae, confirming the annual nature of the laminae couplets with a light summer and a dark winter layer. The varves were analyzed for thickness, mass accumulation rate (MAR), scanning x-ray fluorescence (XRF) and scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible range (VIS-RS). MAR data were calibrated against austral winter (JJA) precipitation data (CRU TS 3.0) for the period AD 1930–2002 (r = 0.67, p (aut) < 0.05). Using a linear inverse regression model we reconstructed winter precipitation for Lago Plomo back to AD 1530. The root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) is small (13.3 mm/month; 12% of the average precipitation) compared with the pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability, suggesting that most of the reconstructed variability is significant. Wetter phases (reference AD 1930-2002) were observed around AD 1600, AD 1630-1690 and AD 1780-1850, and a prolonged drier period AD 1690- 1780 with a multidecadal minimum centered on AD 1770. The spatial correlation for South America suggests that the JJA precipitation record from Lago Plomo is representative for large areas in the southwest between c. 41°S and 51°S. STUDY NOTES: Austral Winter (JJA) precipitation reconstruction from varved sediments collected in Lago Plomo, Patagonian Andes. Mass accumulation rate (MAR) data correlate with austral winter (JJA) precipitation data (CRU TS 3.0), and are used to develop the 470 year austral winter precipitation reconstruction. For the reconstruction, the raw MAR data was detrended with LOESS and a 5 year filter was applied. The record indicates lower winter precipitation (with regard to the twentieth century) for the second half of the sixteenth century followed by two decades with higher precipitation AD 1590-1610. Precipitation falls below the twentieth-century mean AD 1610-1630 while the second half of the seventeenth century was very humid. The eighteenth century experiences greater variability and generally very dry conditions. The end of the eighteenth century is characterized by a sharp rise in precipitation above average AD 1780-1850, followed by drying until the end of the nineteenth century. Decadal and multidecadal variability is pronounced during the entire record. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Elbert, J. Investigator : Grosjean, M. Investigator : von Gunten, L. Investigator : Urrutia, R. Investigator : Fischer, D. Investigator : Wartenburger, R. Investigator : Ariztegui, D. Investigator : Fujak, M. 2011-11-16 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12259 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/southamerica/chile/plomo2012.xls https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/southamerica/chile/plomo2012.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/southamerica/chile/plomo2012.xls https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/southamerica/chile/plomo2012.txt English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12259 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/southamerica/chile/plomo2012.xls https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/southamerica/chile/plomo2012.txt Elbert, J., M. Grosjean, L. von Gunten, R. Urrutia, D. Fischer, R. Wartenburger, D. Ariztegui, and M. Fujak. 2012. Quantitative high-resolution winter (JJA) precipitation reconstruction from varved sediments of Lago Plomo 47°S, Patagonian Andes, AD 1530-2001. The Holocene, 22(4), 465-474. doi:10.1177/0959683611425547 START YEAR: 1530 AD * END YEAR: 2000 AD -72.8667 -46.9833 -72.8667 -46.9833