600 Year Ensemble Climate Reconstructions and Code Package Tingley, M.P.; Huybers, P.J. Tingley, M.P. Huybers, P.J. Air Temperature Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (land surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,summer,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,null,N,50th percentile; smoothed with 9-year Hanning window) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (land surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,summer,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,null,N,5th percentile; smoothed with 9-year Hanning window) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (land surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,summer,climate reconstructions,anomalized,null,N,5th percentile) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (land surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,summer,climate reconstructions,anomalized,null,N,95th percentile) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (land surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,summer,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,null,N,95th percentile; smoothed with 9-year Hanning window) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (land surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,summer,climate reconstructions,anomalized,null,N,50th percentile) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (High Northern Latitudes>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE ) Recently observed extreme temperatures at high northern latitudes are rare by definition, making the longer time span afforded by climate proxies important for assessing how the frequency of such extremes may be changing. Previous reconstructions of past temperature variability have demonstrated that recent warmth is anomalous relative to preceding centuries or millennia, but extreme events can be more thoroughly evaluated using a spatially resolved approach that provides an ensemble of possible temperature histories. Here, using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of instrumental, tree-ring, ice-core and lake-sediment records, we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600?years. The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior years back to 1400 (probability P > 0.95), in terms of the spatial average. The summer of 2010 was the warmest in the previous 600 years in western Russia (P > 0.99) and probably the warmest in western Greenland and the Canadian Arctic as well (P > 0.90). These and other recent extremes greatly exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as resulting from constant space-time variability about an increased mean temperature. STUDY NOTES: Ensemble Climate Reconstructions, input data files, and Matlab Code Package for Tingley and Huybers 2013, Nature 496:201. Code and data are included in compressed Zip file tingley2013.zip NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Tingley, M.P. Investigator : Huybers, P.J. 2013-04-10 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/14190 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/readme-tingley2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/tingley2013.zip https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/ https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/readme-tingley2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/tingley2013.zip https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/ English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/14190 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/readme-tingley2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/tingley2013.zip https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/ Tingley, M.P. and P. Huybers. 2013. Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years. Nature, Vol. 496, pp. 201-205, 11 April 2013. doi:10.1038/nature11969 START YEAR: 1400 AD * END YEAR: 2011 AD -180 45 180 85