San Francisco Bay Northern Estuary 625 Year Salinity Reconstruction Stahle, D.W.; Griffin, R.D.; Cleaveland, M.K.; Edmondson, J.R.; Fye, F.K.; Burnette, D.J.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Redmond, K.T.; Meko, D.M.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Therrell, M.D. Stahle, D.W. Griffin, R.D. Cleaveland, M.K. Edmondson, J.R. Fye, F.K. Burnette, D.J. Abatzoglou, J.T. Redmond, K.T. Meko, D.M. Dettinger, M.D. Cayan, D.R. Therrell, M.D. ENSO Other Hydroclimate Reconstruction drought QUDG Quercus douglasii Hook. and Arn. blue oak earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (salinity,null,null,kilometer,Feb-Jun,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Low salinity zone positions in kilometers from the Golden Gate) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (San Francisco Bay Northern Estuary>LATITUDE 38.067975>LONGITUDE -121.842735) Blue oak tree-ring chronologies correlate highly with winter-spring precipitation totals over California, with Sacramento and San Joaquin river stream flow, and with seasonal variations in the salinity gradient in San Francisco Bay. The convergence of fresh and saline currents can influence turbidity, sediment accumulation, and biological productivity in the estuary. Three selected blue oak chronologies were used to develop a 625-year-long reconstruction of the seasonal salinity gradient, or low salinity zone (LSZ), which provides a unique perspective on the interannual-to-decadal variability of this important estuarine habitat indicator. The reconstruction was calibrated with instrumental LSZ data for the winter-spring season, and explains 73% of the variance in the February-June position of the LSZ from 1956 to 2003. Because this calibration period post-dates the sweeping changes that have occurred to land cover, channel morphology, and natural streamflow regimes in California, the reconstruction provides an idealized estimate for how the LSZ might have fluctuated under the seasonal precipitation variations of the past 625 years, given the modern geometry and bathymetry of the estuary and land cover across the drainage basin. The February-June season integrates precipitation and runoff variability during the cool season, and does not extend into the late-summer dry season when LSZ extremes can negatively affect Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) agriculture and some aquatic organisms. However, there is such strong inter-seasonal persistence in the instrumental LSZ data that precipitation totals during the cool season can strongly pre-condition LSZ position in late summer. The 625-year-long reconstruction indicates strong interannual and decadal variability, the frequent recurrence of consecutive 2-year LSZ maxima and minima, large-scale ocean atmospheric forcing, and an interesting asymmetrical influence of warm El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. STUDY NOTES: Reconstruction of the position of the low salinity zone (LSZ) in the San Francisco Bay Northern Estuary for the past 625 Years, based on 3 northern California blue oak tree-ring chronologies. Reconstructed parameter is the February–June seasonal LSZ position, in kilometers from the Golden Gate. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Stahle, D.W. Investigator : Griffin, R.D. Investigator : Cleaveland, M.K. Investigator : Edmondson, J.R. Investigator : Fye, F.K. Investigator : Burnette, D.J. Investigator : Abatzoglou, J.T. Investigator : Redmond, K.T. Investigator : Meko, D.M. Investigator : Dettinger, M.D. Investigator : Cayan, D.R. Investigator : Therrell, M.D. 2014-11-05 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/17395 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/california/sfbay2011salinity.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/california/sfbay2011salinity.txt English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/17395 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/california/sfbay2011salinity.txt David W. Stahle, R. Daniel Griffin, Malcolm K. Cleaveland, Jesse R. Edmondson, Falko K. Fye, Dorian J. Burnette, John T. Abatzoglou, Kelly T. Redmond, David M. Meko, Micheal D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan, Matthew D. Therrell2011A Tree-Ring Reconstruction of the Salinity Gradient in the Northern Estuary of San Francisco BaySan Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science91http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cz3q8v4 START YEAR: 1379 AD * END YEAR: 2003 AD -121.842735 38.067975 -121.842735 38.067975