Russian Altai and European Alps 2,000 Year Summer Temperature Reconstructions Büntgen, U.; Myglan, V.S.; Ljungqvist, F.C.; McCormick, M.; Di Cosmo, N.; Sigl, M.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Wagner, S.; Krusic, P.J.; Esper, J.; Kaplan, J.O.; de Vaan, M.A.C.; Luterbacher, J.; Wacker, L.; Tegel, W.; Kirdyanov, A. Büntgen, U. Myglan, V.S. Ljungqvist, F.C. McCormick, M. Di Cosmo, N. Sigl, M. Jungclaus, J.H. Wagner, S. Krusic, P.J. Esper, J. Kaplan, J.O. de Vaan, M.A.C. Luterbacher, J. Wacker, L. Tegel, W. Kirdyanov, A. Air Temperature Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 20-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,weighted rcsPT-10 ALL 0-499 and 500-1999 (>10); scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 40-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 20-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,weighted rcsPT-10 ALL 0-499 and 500-1999 (>10); scaled 1900-2003) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,weighted rcsPT-10 ALL 0-499 and 500-1999 (>10); scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 80-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 40-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 80-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 40-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 20-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 20-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp; scaled 1900-2003) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003) earth science/paleoclimate/tree ring (tree ring standardized growth index,null,null,null,null,tree ring,composited,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 80-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 80-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 40-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 40-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping - half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 80-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Detrending and Sampling and Bootstrapping + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 20-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 40-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,range upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,Central Europe Buentgen_etal.Science2011_JJA-temp + half RMSE; scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 80-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (temperature,ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|filtered,null,N,weighted rcsPT-10 ALL 0-499 and 500-1999 (>10); scaled 1900-2003; smoothed 20-year low pass filter) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (Altai>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE ) (Alps>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE ) Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples and political upheavals in China. STUDY NOTES: Tree-ring based summer (June-August) temperature reconstructions for the Russian Altai (104-2011 CE) and European Alps (1-2003 CE) NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Büntgen, U. Investigator : Myglan, V.S. Investigator : Ljungqvist, F.C. Investigator : McCormick, M. Investigator : Di Cosmo, N. Investigator : Sigl, M. Investigator : Jungclaus, J.H. Investigator : Wagner, S. Investigator : Krusic, P.J. Investigator : Esper, J. Investigator : Kaplan, J.O. Investigator : de Vaan, M.A.C. Investigator : Luterbacher, J. Investigator : Wacker, L. Investigator : Tegel, W. Investigator : Kirdyanov, A. 2016-03-14 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/19884 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/europe/alps2016temp.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/asia/russia/altai2016temp.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/europe/alps2016temp.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/asia/russia/altai2016temp.txt English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/19884 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/europe/alps2016temp.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/asia/russia/altai2016temp.txt Ulf Büntgen, Vladimir S. Myglan, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Michael McCormick, Nicola Di Cosmo, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, Sebastian Wagner, Paul J. Krusic, Jan Esper, Jed O. Kaplan, Michiel A. C. de Vaan, Jürg Luterbacher, Lukas Wacker, Willy Tegel, Alexander V. Kirdyanov2016Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 ADNature Geoscience9231-23610.1038/ngeo2652http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n3/full/ngeo2652.html START YEAR: 1 AD * END YEAR: 2011 AD 10 45 90 50