Upper Rio Grande 445 Year Runoff Efficiency Reconstructions Lehner, F.; Wahl, E.R.; Wood, A.W.; Blatchford, D.B.; Llewellyn, D. Lehner, F. Wahl, E.R. Wood, A.W. Blatchford, D.B. Llewellyn, D. Precipitation Reconstruction Streamflow Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (streamflow,null,ensemble member,acre foot,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,units are 1000s of acre feet) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (runoff coefficient,null,ensemble member,dimensionless,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (precipitation,null,ensemble member,acre foot,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,units are 1000s of acre feet) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (Otowi Bridge>LATITUDE 35.8747>LONGITUDE -106.1414) Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 CE, which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present-day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5-3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue. STUDY NOTES: Tree-ring based ensemble reconstructions of upper Rio Grande streamflow, precipitation, and runoff efficiency at Otowi Bridge, New Mexico, since 1571 CE. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Lehner, F. Investigator : Wahl, E.R. Investigator : Wood, A.W. Investigator : Blatchford, D.B. Investigator : Llewellyn, D. 2017-05-09 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/22070 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-readme.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-precip.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-flow.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-runoff.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-readme.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-precip.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-flow.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-runoff.txt English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/22070 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-readme.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-precip.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-flow.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/newmexico/lehner2017riogrande-runoff.txt Flavio Lehner, Eugene R. Wahl, Andrew W. Wood, Douglas B. Blatchford, Dagmar Llewellyn2017Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspectiveGeophysical Research Letters10.1002/2017GL073253 START YEAR: 1571 AD * END YEAR: 2015 AD -106.1414 35.8747 -106.1414 35.8747