North America/North Pacific 300 Year Reconstructed Cool-Season Storm Tracks Wise, E.K.; Dannenberg, M.P. Wise, E.K. Dannenberg, M.P. ENSO Other Hydroclimate Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,composite plus scale,N,storm track latitude; assigned to the ending year of the season) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,null,square meter per square second,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,composite plus scale,N,storm track intensity; assigned to the ending year of the season) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,verification root mean square error,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for reconstructed storm-track intensity for each longitudinal transect.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,verification root mean square error,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the instrumental storm track position and the CPS-predicted storm track position for each longitudinal transect.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,composite plus scale,N,"Vector of storm track position (degrees N) at 124W for each year of the reconstructed time period (1693-1995), determined by fitting a straight line (using ordinary least squares regression) to the reconstructed storm track position over the region 136°W to 124°W.; assigned to the ending year of the season") earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,verification coefficient of efficiency,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) between the instrumental storm track position and the CPS-predicted storm track position (where Coefficient of Efficiency values > 0 indicate predictive skill) for each longitudinal transect.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,verification coefficient of determination,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of determination (r2) between the instrumental storm track position and composite-plus-scale (CPS)-predicted storm track position for each longitudinal transect.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,verification coefficient of determination,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of determination (r2) for reconstructed storm-track intensity for each longitudinal transect.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,storm track latitude; assigned to the ending year of the season; smoothed with a robust loess filter) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (storm track,null,null,square meter per square second,Oct-Mar,instrumental,null,null,N,storm track intensity) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (storm track,null,verification coefficient of efficiency,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of efficiency (CE) for reconstructed storm-track intensity for each longitudinal transect.) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,instrumental,null,null,N,storm track latitude) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (longitude,null,null,degree east,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (North America/North Pacific>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE ) Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. STUDY NOTES: Reconstructed cool-season (Oct-Mar) storm track position (decimal degrees N) and intensity (m^2 s^-2), based on tree-ring chronologies using a composite-plus-scale method (CPS) NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Wise, E.K. Investigator : Dannenberg, M.P. 2017-06-07 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/22198 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/readme-wise2017stormtrack.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/wise2017stormtrack.nc https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/readme-wise2017stormtrack.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/wise2017stormtrack.nc English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/22198 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/readme-wise2017stormtrack.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/wise2017stormtrack.nc Erika K. Wise and Matthew P. Dannenberg2017Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North AmericaScience Advancese16022633610.1126/sciadv.1602263http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/6/e1602263 START YEAR: 1693 AD * END YEAR: 1995 AD -150 25 -110 75