Northeastern United States 11,000 Year Precipitation Reconstructions Marsicek, J.P.; Shuman, B.N.; Brewer, S.; Foster, D.R.; Oswald, W. Marsicek, J.P. Shuman, B.N. Brewer, S. Foster, D.R. Oswald, W. Precipitation Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology (age,null,null,calendar year before present,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|paleolimnology (salinity,diatom assemblage|lake water,null,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,diatom-inferred mean log salinity) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|pollen (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|pollen,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology (lake level,null,range lower bound,centimeter,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,elevation below modern) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|pollen (precipitation,null,null,millimeter per year,annual,climate reconstructions|pollen,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology (lake level,null,null,centimeter,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,elevation below modern) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology (lake level,null,range upper bound,centimeter,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,elevation below modern) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|pollen (age,null,null,calendar year before present,null,climate reconstructions|pollen,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (Little Pond Royalston>LATITUDE 42.68>LONGITUDE -72.19) (Blood Pond>LATITUDE 42.083>LONGITUDE -71.916) (Fresh Pond (FRESHPND)>LATITUDE 41.15833>LONGITUDE -71.575) (Rogers Lake (ROGERSLK)>LATITUDE 41.36666>LONGITUDE -72.11667) (No Bottom Pond (NOBOTTOM)>LATITUDE 41.28333>LONGITUDE -70.20834) (Berry Pond>LATITUDE 42.505>LONGITUDE -73.319) (Deep Pond>LATITUDE 41.564>LONGITUDE -70.635) A decline of hemlock (Tsuga) populations at ca 5.5 ka (thousands of calibrated radiocarbon years before 1950 AD) stands out as the most abrupt vegetation change of the Holocene in North America, but remains poorly understood after decades of study. Recent analyses of fossil pollen have revealed a concurrent, abrupt oak (Quercus) decline and increases in the abundance of beech (Fagus) and pine (Pinus) on Cape Cod in eastern Massachusetts, but the replacement of drought-tolerant oaks by moisture-sensitive beeches appears inconsistent with low lake levels in the region at the same time. The oak and beech changes are also limited to coastal areas, and the coastal-inland differences require an explanation. Here, we develop a new lake-level reconstruction from Deep Pond, Cape Cod by using a transect of sediment cores and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles to constrain the past elevations of the sandy, littoral zone of the pond. The reconstruction shows that a series of multi-century episodes of low water coincide with the abrupt hemlock and oak declines, and interrupt subsequent phases of hemlock recovery. The lake-level variations equal precipitation deficits of ~100 mm superimposed on a Holocene long moisture increase of >400 mm. However, because moisture deficits do not easily explain the oak and beech changes, we also evaluate how the climate preferences of the regional vegetation changed over time by matching the fossil pollen assemblages from Deep Pond with their modern equivalents. Reconstructions of the precipitation requirements of the vegetation correlate well even in detail with the lake-level record (r = 0.88 at Deep Pond), and indicate close tracking of effective moisture (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) by the vegetation despite the abrupt species declines, which could have decoupled climate and vegetation trends. Reconstructions of the temperature preferences of the vegetation indicate that coastal sites may have cooled by 0.5-2.5 C after ca 5.5 ka, while inland sites warmed by 0.5-1 C. The change in coastal temperature preferences agrees with sea surface cooling in the western Atlantic Ocean of >1 C. Consequently, the persistence of low hemlock abundance after 5.5 ka in the northeast U.S. may have resulted from oceanic changes that produced multi-century droughts and thus delayed the post-decline recovery of hemlock populations. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Marsicek, J.P. Investigator : Shuman, B.N. Investigator : Brewer, S. Investigator : Foster, D.R. Investigator : Oswald, W. 2017-11-15 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/23072 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/Rogers.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/BloodPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/FreshPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/NoBottomPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013-2.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/BerryPondWest.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/FreshPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Rogers.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013-1.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/NoBottomPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/BloodPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/BerryPondWest.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/Rogers.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/BloodPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/FreshPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/NoBottomPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013-2.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/BerryPondWest.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/FreshPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Rogers.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013-1.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/NoBottomPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/BloodPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/BerryPondWest.Marsicek.2013.lpd English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/23072 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/Rogers.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/BloodPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/FreshPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/NoBottomPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013-2.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/BerryPondWest.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/FreshPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Rogers.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013-1.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/NoBottomPond.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/Deep.Marsicek.2013.lpd https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/noaa-templates/data-version-1.0.0/BloodPond.Marsicek.2013.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/NAm2kHydro-2017/data-version-1.0.0/BerryPondWest.Marsicek.2013.lpd Jeremiah P. Marsicek, Bryan Shuman, Simon Brewer, David R. Foster, W. Wyatt Oswald2013Moisture and temperature changes associated with the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in the northeastern United StatesQuaternary Science Reviews80129-14210.1016/j.quascirev.2013.09.001http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113003375 START YEAR: 11000 cal yr BP * END YEAR: 0 cal yr BP -73.319 41.15833 -70.20834 42.68