East Asia 2,000 Year Decadal Warm Season Temperature Reconstructions Zhang, H.; Werner, J.P.; García-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, J.F.; Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.; Fraedrich, K.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Ljungqvist, F.C.; Zhu, X.; Xoplaki, E.; Chen, F.; Duan, J.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Ivanov, M.; Schneider, L.; Talento, S.; Wang, J.L.; Yang, B.; Luterbacher, J. Zhang, H. Werner, J.P. García-Bustamante, E. González-Rouco, J.F. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. Fraedrich, K. Jungclaus, J.H. Ljungqvist, F.C. Zhu, X. Xoplaki, E. Chen, F. Duan, J. Ge, Q. Hao, Z. Ivanov, M. Schneider, L. Talento, S. Wang, J.L. Yang, B. Luterbacher, J. Air Temperature Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,90% confidence interval upper bound,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,deepest; pointwise confidence interval) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,90% confidence interval lower bound,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,deepest; pointwise confidence interval) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,90% confidence interval lower bound,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,median; pointwise confidence interval) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,deepest) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,median) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,Gridpoint location number in column 1 (lat-longs above in Description section); years CE in row 1) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions (surface air temperature,multiple proxies,90% confidence interval upper bound,degree Celsius,May-Sep,climate reconstructions,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,median; pointwise confidence interval) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (East Asia>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE ) East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies from a wide range of Asian regions. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Zhang, H. Investigator : Werner, J.P. Investigator : García-Bustamante, E. Investigator : González-Rouco, J.F. Investigator : Wagner, S. Investigator : Zorita, E. Investigator : Fraedrich, K. Investigator : Jungclaus, J.H. Investigator : Ljungqvist, F.C. Investigator : Zhu, X. Investigator : Xoplaki, E. Investigator : Chen, F. Investigator : Duan, J. Investigator : Ge, Q. Investigator : Hao, Z. Investigator : Ivanov, M. Investigator : Schneider, L. Investigator : Talento, S. Investigator : Wang, J.L. Investigator : Yang, B. Investigator : Luterbacher, J. 2018-03-06 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/23491 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/zhang2018/zhang2018easia-temp-grid.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/zhang2018/zhang2018easia-temp.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/zhang2018/zhang2018easia-temp-grid.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/zhang2018/zhang2018easia-temp.txt English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/23491 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/zhang2018/zhang2018easia-temp-grid.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/zhang2018/zhang2018easia-temp.txt Huan Zhang, Johannes P. Werner, Elena García-Bustamante, Fidel González-Rouco, Sebastian Wagner, Eduardo Zorita, Klaus Fraedrich, Johann H. Jungclaus, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Xiuhua Zhu, Elena Xoplaki, Fahu Chen, Jianping Duan, Quansheng Ge, Zhixin Hao, Martin Ivanov, Lea Schneider, Stefanie Talento, Jianglin Wang, Bao Yang, Jürg Luterbacher2018East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millenniaScientific Reports7702810.1038/s41598-018-26038-8https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-26038-8 START YEAR: 10 AD * END YEAR: 2000 AD 60 10 160 60