Cleaveland et al. 2002 Durango Mexico Precipitation Reconstructions Cleaveland, M.K.; Stahle, D.W.; Therrell, M.D.; Villanueva-Diaz, J.; Burns, B.T. Cleaveland, M.K. Stahle, D.W. Therrell, M.D. Villanueva-Diaz, J. Burns, B.T. Precipitation Reconstruction precipitation earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (precipitation,ring width,null,millimeter,Nov-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,smoothed,regression analysis,N,based on earlywood width; variance reduced over part of record; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (precipitation,ring width,null,millimeter,Nov-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,regression analysis,N,based on earlywood width; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (precipitation,ring width,null,millimeter,May-Jun,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,regression analysis,N,based on latewood width; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (precipitation,null,null,millimeter,May-Jun,instrumental,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (precipitation,ring width,null,millimeter,May-Jun,climate reconstructions|tree ring,averaged|smoothed,regression analysis,N,based on latewood width; variance reduced over part of record; average of multiple samples; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (precipitation,null,null,millimeter,Nov-Mar,instrumental,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|tree ring (precipitation,ring width,null,millimeter,May-Jun,climate reconstructions|tree ring,averaged,regression analysis,N,based on latewood width; average of multiple samples; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (El Salto Santa Rita Tunnel>LATITUDE 23.75>LONGITUDE -105.52) (Cerro Baraja and Los Angeles Sawmill>LATITUDE 26.4>LONGITUDE -106.08) Earlywood width chronologies from Douglas-fir tree rings were used to reconstruct winter (November–March) precipitation for more than 600 years over Durango, Mexico. The tree-ring data were obtained from two sites of long-lived Douglas-fir in northern and southern Durango and the seasonal climatic precipitation data were regionally averaged from five weather stations well distributed across the state. The averaged earlywood chronology accounted for 56% of the variance in instrumental November–March precipitation 1942–1983. We validated the reconstruction against independent precipitation records. The worst winter drought of the 20th century in Durango occurred 1950–1965. However, the reconstruction indicates droughts more severe than any witnessed in the 20th century, e.g., the 1850s–1860s, and the megadrought in the mid- to late-16th century. Reconstructed winter precipitation 1540–1579 shows 33 of 40 years were dry. Persistent drought may be linked to extended La Niña episodes. The Tropical Rainfall Index (TRI) correlates well with instrumental and reconstructed winter precipitation (r = 0.49 and 0.55, respectively), reflecting the strong ENSO modulation of cool season climate over northern Mexico. The ENSO teleconnection varies through time, with TRI-reconstructed precipitation correlations ranging from 0.78 to 0.27 in five periods 1895–1993. The 1942–1983 winter observed and reconstructed Durango data correlate well with the corresponding seasonalization of the All-Mexico Rainfall Index (AMRI; r=0.68, P<0.0001 and r=0.70, P<0.001, respectively), indicating that both the observed and the reconstructed precipitation often reflect broad-scale precipitation anomalies across Mexico. New long Douglas-fir and baldcypress tree-ring chronologies are now available for central and southern Mexico near major population centers, allowing the exploration of relationships between drought, food scarcity, and social and political upheaval in Mexican history. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Cleaveland, M.K. Investigator : Stahle, D.W. Investigator : Therrell, M.D. Investigator : Villanueva-Diaz, J. Investigator : Burns, B.T. 2003-07-01 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/6369 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/mexico/durango_precip.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/mexico/durango_precip.txt English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/6369 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/mexico/durango_precip.txt Cleaveland, M.K., D.W. Stahle, M.D. Therrell, J. Villanueva-Diaz and B.T. Burns2003Tree-Ring Reconstructed Winter Precipitation and Tropical Teleconnections in Durango, MexicoClimatic Change593369-38810.1023/A:1024835630188 START YEAR: 1384 AD * END YEAR: 1983 AD -106.08 23.75 -105.52 26.4