Central European 500 Year Temperature Reconstructions Dobrovolný, P.; Moberg, A.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Glaser, R.; Wilson, R.J.S.; van Engelen, A.; Limanówka, D.; Kiss, A.; Halícková, M.; Macková, J.; Riemann, D.; Luterbacher, J.; Böhm, F. Dobrovolný, P. Moberg, A. Brázdil, R. Pfister, C. Glaser, R. Wilson, R.J.S. van Engelen, A. Limanówka, D. Kiss, A. Halícková, M. Macková, J. Riemann, D. Luterbacher, J. Böhm, F. Air Temperature Reconstruction earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Sep-Nov,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,Sep-Nov,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Aug,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Dec,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Mar-May,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,Mar-May,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Feb,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,May,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Sep,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Sep-Nov,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Jul,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Oct,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Jun-Aug,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Sep-Nov,instrumental,anomalized,null,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Mar-May,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,instrumental,anomalized,null,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,instrumental,anomalized,null,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,null,instrumental,anomalized,null,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,null,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,null,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Mar-May,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Apr,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Jun,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Dec-Feb,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|historical,null,null,N,null) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,null,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/climate reconstructions|historical (surface temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical,anomalized,regression analysis,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: local instrumental data; simple linear regression) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Nov,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,Mar-May,instrumental,anomalized,null,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.) earth science/paleoclimate/instrumental (surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,instrumental,anomalized,null,N,reference period: 1901-2000 A.D.) earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,annual,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Jan,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Mar,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/historical (temperature,null,null,dimensionless,Sep-Nov,historical,null,null,N,"temperature index with 0=average"","" -/+1 cold/warm"","" -/+ 2 very cold/warm"","" -/+3 extremely cold/warm") earth science/paleoclimate/reconstructions (Central Europe>LATITUDE 49>LONGITUDE 13) Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500–1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760–2007). Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760-1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed. STUDY NOTES: Monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures for Central Europe reconstructed from descriptive qualitative documentary sources. Documentary sources used in the form of indices. Monthly indices used at 7-degree scale (-3 means extremely cold conditions, -2 very cold, -1 cold, 0 normal, +1 warm, +2 very warm, +3 extremely warm). Seasonal and annual indices were calculated as a sum of corresponding monthly values. Index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Lands were used for final reconstruction. Temperatures are expressed as anomalies from the 1961–1990 average. Documentary indices are unitless. NCDC-Paleoclimatology https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data - Bauer Bruce Investigator : Dobrovolný, P. Investigator : Moberg, A. Investigator : Brázdil, R. Investigator : Pfister, C. Investigator : Glaser, R. Investigator : Wilson, R.J.S. Investigator : van Engelen, A. Investigator : Limanówka, D. Investigator : Kiss, A. Investigator : Halícková, M. Investigator : Macková, J. Investigator : Riemann, D. Investigator : Luterbacher, J. Investigator : Böhm, F. 2010-07-06 ONLINE Files online, ASCII https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/9970 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe/dobrovolny2010temperature.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe/dobrovolny2010temperature.xls https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe/dobrovolny2010temperature.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe/dobrovolny2010temperature.xls English https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/9970 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe/dobrovolny2010temperature.txt https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/europe/dobrovolny2010temperature.xls Dobrovolný, P., A. Moberg, R. Brázdil, C. Pfister, R. Glaser, R. Wilson, A. van Engelen, D. Limanówka, A. Kiss, M. Halícková, J. Macková, D. Riemann, J. Luterbacher, and R. Böhm. 2010. Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500. Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 69-107. DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9724-x START YEAR: 1500 AD * END YEAR: 2007 AD 6 45 20 53