Repeated century-scale droughts over the past 13,000 yr near the Hudson River watershed, USA

noaa-lake-16094 Davis Pond, Massachusetts 16KYr LOI Data and Moisture Balance Reconstructions Newby, P.E.; Shuman, B.N.; Donnelly, J.P.; MacDonald, D. Davis Pond, Massachusetts 16KYr LOI Data and Moisture Balance Reconstructions 2014-01-24 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/16094 Investigator P.E. Newby Investigator B.N. Shuman Investigator J.P. Donnelly Investigator D. MacDonald earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology notes,null,null,null,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,C,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology age,null,null,calendar year before present,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleolimnology precipitation minus evaporation,null,percentile,millimeter,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,75th percentile; based on sediment loss on ignition earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleolimnology precipitation minus evaporation,null,percentile,millimeter,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,25th percentile; based on sediment loss on ignition earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology lake level,null,range lower bound,meter,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,relative to present earth science paleoclimate paleolimnology depth,null,null,centimeter,null,paleolimnology,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleolimnology age,null,null,calendar year before present,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleolimnology precipitation minus evaporation,null,one standard deviation lower bound,millimeter,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,based on sediment loss on ignition earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology lake level,null,null,meter,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,relative to present earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleolimnology precipitation minus evaporation,null,null,millimeter,null,climate reconstructions|paleolimnology,null,null,N,based on sediment loss on ignition earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology lake level,null,range upper bound,meter,null,climate reconstructions|lake levels|paleolimnology,null,null,N,relative to present earth science paleoclimate paleolimnology age,null,null,calendar year before present,null,paleolimnology,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate paleolimnology organic matter,sediment,null,weight percent,null,paleolimnology,null,loss on ignition,N,550 degrees C earth science paleoclimate paleolimnology reconstruction earth science paleoclimate paleolimnology geochemistry geoscientificInformation Other Hydroclimate Reconstruction hydrology 16787 cal yr BP 2 cal yr BP Complete 42.1355 42.1355 -73.4077 -73.4077 213 213 Continent North America United States Of America Massachusetts Davis Pond>LATITUDE 42.1355>LONGITUDE -73.4077 None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

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Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII Paige E. Newby, Bryan N. Shuman, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Dana MacDonald 2011 Repeated century-scale droughts over the past 13,000 yr near the Hudson River watershed, USA Quaternary Research 75 3 523-530 10.1016/j.yqres.2011.01.006 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589411000172 Paul Pribyl and Bryan N. Shuman 2014 A Computational Approach to Quaternary Lake-Level Reconstruction Applied in the Central Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA Quaternary Research

Long-term sediment and ground-penetrating radar data from Davis Pond, a small lake near the Hudson River valley, reveal past droughts in a historically humid region that presently supplies water to millions of people in and around New York City. A minimum of eleven sandy paleoshoreline deposits in the lake date from 13.4 to 0.6 cal ka BP. The deposits span 1500 to 200 yr between bracketing radiocarbon ages, and intrude into lacustrine silts up to 9.0 m below the modern lake surface in a transect of six sediment cores. Three low stands, ca. 13.4-10.9, 9.2 and 8.2 cal ka BP indicate low regional moisture balance when low temperatures affected the North Atlantic region. Consistent with insolation trends, water levels rose from ca. 8.0 cal ka BP to present, but five low stands interrupted the rise and are likely associated with ocean-atmosphere interactions. Similar to evidence from other studies, the data from Davis Pond indicate repeated multi-century periods of prolonged or frequent droughts super-imposed on long-term regional trends toward high water levels. The patterns indicate that water supplies in this heavily populated region have continuously varied at multiple time scales and confirm that humid regions such as the northeastern United States are more prone to severe drought than historically expected. STUDY NOTES: Sediment loss-on-ignition (LOI) values and moisture balance (lake-level and Precipitation minus Evaporation) reconstructions for Davis Pond, Massachusetts. Also included are facies thresholds for differentiating littoral and sub-littoral lake sediment facies based on the raw core data, for use in the iterative lake-level reconstruction process. The reconstruction process iteratively applies each set of thresholds in R to produce an ensemble of reconstructions. The code for generating the lake-level reconstruction according to the process described in Pribyl and Shuman (2014) is provided. Also included are the ensemble mean lake-level reconstruction and its uncertainty per 50-yr interval for the length of the record, and the individual ensemble members for each time step (but without the ages for the steps). R script MoistureBalance is the code for the simple moisture-budget calculation based on the lake-level reconstruction. Again this follows Pribyl and Shuman (2014). PErecon contains the median P-E reconstruction as an anomaly from modern for each 50-yr interval, as well as the 1-sigma and 25% and 75% quantiles of the reconstruction uncertainty. Data and R code are included in original contributor files: Davis_cores.csv, Davis_Iterations_012414.csv, Davis_LLrecon_012414.csv, Davis_PErecon_012414.csv, Davis_R_Script_LLRecon_012414.txt, Davis_R_Script_MoistureBalance_011414.txt, and FaciesThresholds_Davis.csv, plus WDC Paleo formatted text files davis2013loi.txt, davis2013ll.txt, and davis2013p-e.txt.

GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/davis2011ll.txt Data File; Lake Level Reconstruction GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/FaciesThresholds_Davis.csv Original CSV Data File; Facies Thresholds GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/davis2011p-e.txt Data File; Precipitation minus Evaporation Reconstruction GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/Davis_PErecon_012414.csv Original CSV Data File; Precipitation minus Evaporation Reconstruction GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/Davis_R_Script_LLRecon_012414.txt R Script File; Code for Lake Level Reconstruction GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/Davis_R_Script_MoistureBalance_011414.txt R Script File; Code for P-E Reconstruction GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/Davis_cores.csv Original CSV Data File; Loss-on-Ignition Data GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/Davis_Iterations_012414.csv Original CSV Data File; Individual ensemble members GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/Davis_LLrecon_012414.csv Original CSV Data File; Lake Level Reconstruction GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/usa/massachusetts/davis2011loi.txt Data File; Loss-On-Ignition Data USA/NOAA DIF Version 9.8.4 2018-12-11 2018-12-11