noaa-model-12280
Last Glacial Maximum Temperature Reconstructions and Climate Sensitivity
Schmittner, A.; Urban, N.M.; Shakun, J.D.; Mahowald, N.; Clark, P.U.; Bartlein, P.J.; Mix, A.C.; Rosell-Melé, A.
Last Glacial Maximum Temperature Reconstructions and Climate Sensitivity
2011-12-09
NCDC-Paleoclimatology
ONLINE Files
Pending
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12280
Investigator
A.
Schmittner
Investigator
N.M.
Urban
Investigator
J.D.
Shakun
Investigator
N.
Mahowald
Investigator
P.U.
Clark
Investigator
P.J.
Bartlein
Investigator
A.C.
Mix
Investigator
A.
Rosell-Melé
earth science
paleoclimate
paleoclimatic modeling
surface air temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,null,paleoclimatic modeling,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
paleoclimatic modeling
sea ice cover,null,null,square meter,null,paleoclimatic modeling,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
paleoclimatic modeling
sea surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,null,paleoclimatic modeling,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
model
atmosphere model
geoscientificInformation
Air Temperature Reconstruction
Last Glacial Maximum
sensitivity
21000 cal yr BP
18000 cal yr BP
Complete
-90
90
-180
180
Geographic Region
Global
Global>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE
None
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English
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI
National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
DATA Center Contact
Bruce
Bauer
bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov
paleo@noaa.gov
303-497-6280
303-497-6513
325 Broadway, E/NE31
Boulder
CO
80305-3328
USA
online
ASCII
Schmittner, A., N.M. Urban, J.D. Shakun, N.M. Mahowald, P.U. Clark,
P.J. Bartlein, A.C. Mix, and A. Rosell-Melé. 2011.
Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions
of the Last Glacial Maximum.
Science, Vol. 334, No. 6061, pp. 1385-1388, 9 December 2011.
DOI: 10.1126/science.1203513
Published Online November 24 2011
Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions
is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of
equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide
doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate,
2-4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities
for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant
chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult
to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature
reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model
simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced
uncertainty (1.7-2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic
constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model,
these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme
climatic change than previously thought.
STUDY NOTES: Data for Schmittner et al. 2011
"Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Temperature Reconstructions
of the Last Glacial Maximum" Science 334:1385.
Data archived at NOAA/WDC for Paleoclimatology:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/uvic/schmittner2011/
Bartlein et al. 2010 data set available at:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/2762k2451307l623/382_2010_Article_904_ESM.html
or
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/bartlein2010/bartlein2010.html
MARGO Project data are available at:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/margo2009/margo2009.html
and in the netCDF file margo09.nc
Shakun et al. LGM temperature anomalies are available as a combined
Excel file:
LGM_deltaT_synthesis_Shakun_etal_2011.xlsx
or as three separate netcdf files containing updated MARGO grid points:
dt_updated_MARGO.nc
other ocean grid points:
dt_other_ocean.nc
and land grid points on a 2x2 grid:
dt_other_land_2x2.nc
Note that the updates MARGO grid points should replace the corresponding
data in the original MARGO dataset.
A Table with references is also provided:
Shakun_table.pdf
The results from the UVic model simulations from the pre-industrial
control and LGM simulations are in the file:
sat_sst_aice.tar.gz
The probability density functions PDFs (Figure 3) are in file:
ECS_pdfs.txt
and the random samples from the Markov chains from which the pdfs
were derived are in the file:
ECS_chains.txt.gz
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/uvic/schmittner2011/
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/uvic/schmittner2011/readme-schmittner2011.txt
USA/NOAA
DIF
Version 9.8.4
2018-12-11
2018-12-11