noaa-ocean-19200 Gulf of Aden 2000 Year Leaf Wax Isotope, TEX86, and SST Data Tierney, J.E.; Ummenhofer, C.C.; deMenocal, P.B. Gulf of Aden 2000 Year Leaf Wax Isotope, TEX86, and SST Data 2015-10-09 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/19200 Investigator J.E. Tierney Investigator C.C. Ummenhofer Investigator P.B. deMenocal earth science paleoclimate paleoceanography delta 13C,C30 n-alkanoic acid,null,per mil VPDB,null,paleoceanography,null,isotope ratio mass spectrometry,N,higher plant leaf wax interpretation earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleoceanography sea surface temperature,glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether index,one standard deviation upper bound,degree Celsius,null,climate reconstructions|paleoceanography,null,null,N,BAYSPAR Bayesian calibration; based on TEX86 earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleoceanography sea surface temperature,glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether index,null,degree Celsius,null,climate reconstructions|paleoceanography,null,null,N,median calibrated ssts from tex86; BAYSPAR Bayesian calibration (using BAYSPAR-NRS Tierney & Tingley 2014 GCA) earth science paleoclimate paleoceanography tetraether index of 86 carbon atoms,null,null,dimensionless,null,paleoceanography,null,high-performance liquid chromatography,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|paleoceanography sea surface temperature,glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether index,one standard deviation lower bound,degree Celsius,null,climate reconstructions|paleoceanography,null,null,N,BAYSPAR Bayesian calibration; based on TEX86 earth science paleoclimate paleoceanography depth,null,null,centimeter,null,paleoceanography,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate paleoceanography age,null,null,year Common Era,null,paleoceanography,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate paleoceanography delta 2H,C30 n-alkanoic acid,null,per mil VSMOW,null,paleoceanography,null,isotope ratio mass spectrometry,N,higher plant leaf wax interpretation earth science paleoclimate paleocean biomarkers earth science paleoclimate paleocean carbon isotopes earth science paleoclimate paleocean reconstruction geoscientificInformation Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction 131 AD 2000 AD 1819 cal yr BP -50 cal yr BP Complete 11.955 11.955 44.3 44.3 -869 -869 Ocean Indian Ocean Arabian Sea P178-15P>LATITUDE 11.955>LONGITUDE 44.3 None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

325 Broadway, E/NE31

Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII Jessica E. Tierney, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, and Peter B. deMenocal 2015 Science Advances e1500682 1 9 10.1126/sciadv.1500682 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/9/e1500682.abstract

The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March-May "long rains" season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September-November "short rains" season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa. STUDY NOTES: Gulf of Aden leaf wax isotope (dDwax and d13Cwax), TEX86 biomarker proxy data, and SST reconstructions from 2 cores spanning the past ca. 2000 years.

GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tierney2015b/tierney2015bc1.txt Data File; Gulf of Aden Core P178-15 BC1 Leaf Wax Isotope,TEX86, and SST Data GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tierney2015b/tierney2015p.txt Data File; Gulf of Aden Core P178-15P Leaf Wax Isotope,TEX86, and SST Data USA/NOAA DIF Version 9.8.4 2018-12-11 2018-12-11