noaa-recon-10437
1,000 Year Ensemble Reconstructions of Temperature and CO2
Frank, D.C.; Esper, J.; Raible, C.C.; Büntgen, U.; Trouet, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Joos, F.
1,000 Year Ensemble Reconstructions of Temperature and CO2
2010-04-02
NCDC-Paleoclimatology
ONLINE Files
Pending
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/10437
Investigator
D.C.
Frank
Investigator
J.
Esper
Investigator
C.C.
Raible
Investigator
U.
Büntgen
Investigator
V.
Trouet
Investigator
T.F.
Stocker
Investigator
F.
Joos
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,5th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT4
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,40th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT11
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,55th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT14
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,85th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT20
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 125 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,30th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT9
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,97.5th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT23
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,range upper bound,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT25
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 150 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,50th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT13
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,60th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT15
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,75th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT18
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,90th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT21
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 50 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 100 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,20th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT7
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,25th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT8
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,45th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT12
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,80th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT19
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1971-2000 A.D.; calibration data set: HADCRUT3
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1971-2000 A.D.; smooth: 50 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT3
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,2.5th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT3
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,95th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT22
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,35th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT10
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,65th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT16
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,70th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT17
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 75 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,15th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT6
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,10th percentile; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT5
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,range lower bound,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT24
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 175 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 200 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,composite plus scale,N,reference period: 1971-2000 A.D.; smooth: 10 year spline; calibration data set: HADCRUT3
earth science
paleoclimate
ice cores
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,ice cores,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing|ice cores
carbon dioxide,bulk atmosphere,null,parts per million,null,climate forcing|ice cores,composited|smoothed,gas chromatography,N,smooth: 50 year spline
earth science
paleoclimate
reconstructions
air temperature
geoscientificInformation
Air Temperature Reconstruction
carbon cycle
sensitivity
1000 AD
1995 AD
950 cal yr BP
-45 cal yr BP
Complete
0
90
-180
180
Geographic Region
Northern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE
None
Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.
English
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI
National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
DATA Center Contact
Bruce
Bauer
bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov
paleo@noaa.gov
303-497-6280
303-497-6513
325 Broadway, E/NE31
Boulder
CO
80305-3328
USA
online
ASCII
Frank, D.C., J. Esper, C.C. Raible, U. Büntgen, V. Trouet,
B. Stocker, and F. Joos. 2010.
Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle
sensitivity to climate.
Nature, Vol. 463, pp.527-532, 28 January 2010.
doi:10.1038/nature08769
The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage
of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are
temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive
feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming.
Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual
to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations,
warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO2
into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming.
But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global
carbon cycle (termed gamma), and thus of its positive feedback
strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties
in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median
gamma as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C warming, with a likely range
of 1.7 - 21.4 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C. Sensitivity experiments
exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change
on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a
probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature
reconstructions and pre-industrial CO2 data from three ice cores,
provide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant
multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble
of >200,000 members, quantification of gamma is not only improved,
but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark
for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not
at present allow exclusion of gamma calculated from any of ten
coupled carbon-climate models, we find that gamma is about twice
as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile
of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P,0.05)
than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of 40 p.p.m.v.
CO2 per °C, and correspondingly suggest 80% less potential
amplification of ongoing global warming.
STUDY NOTES: Calibration ensemble reconstructions of existing large-scale
temperature estimates. Reconstructions were recalibrated to mitigate
biases in the choice of the instrumental target, calibration period,
and methods which may not adequately preserve the full amplitude
of temperature variability. 521 different members were derived
and used to define the amplitude of temperature variability.
Reconstructions of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Antarctic
ice cores were combined and variability smoothed. The temperature
and CO2 reconstructions were combined to constrain the climate
sensitivity of the global carbon cycle.
Temperature reconstructions are provided in Deg. C w.r.t 1971-2000,
with the column header indicating the large-scale reconstruction,
the first year of calibration, and the last year of calibration.
The CO2 data are provided in ppmv. See publication for details.
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/frank2010/ensembles-percentiles.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/frank2010/ensembles-calib-raw.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/frank2010/ensembles-10yearsmth.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/frank2010/smoothedco2.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/frank2010/readme-frank2010.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/frank2010/ensembles-50yearsmth.txt
USA/NOAA
DIF
Version 9.8.4
2018-12-11
2018-12-11