noaa-recon-12424
Potomac River 1000 Year May-September Streamflow Reconstruction
Maxwell, R.S.; Hessl, A.E.; Cook, E.R.; Pederson, N.
Potomac River 1000 Year May-September Streamflow Reconstruction
2012-01-28
NCDC-Paleoclimatology
ONLINE Files
Pending
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12424
Investigator
R.S.
Maxwell
Investigator
A.E.
Hessl
Investigator
E.R.
Cook
Investigator
N.
Pederson
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions|tree ring
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions|tree ring
streamflow,null,null,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
instrumental
streamflow,null,null,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,instrumental,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
reconstructions
streamflow
geoscientificInformation
Streamflow Reconstruction
hydrology
950 AD
2001 AD
1000 cal yr BP
-51 cal yr BP
Complete
39.2736
39.2736
-77.5431
-77.5431
Continent
North America
United States Of America
Maryland
Point of Rocks>LATITUDE 39.2736>LONGITUDE -77.5431
None
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English
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI
National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
DATA Center Contact
Bruce
Bauer
bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov
paleo@noaa.gov
303-497-6280
303-497-6513
325 Broadway, E/NE31
Boulder
CO
80305-3328
USA
online
ASCII
Maxwell, R.S., A.E. Hessl, E.R. Cook, and N. Pederson. 2011.
A multispecies tree ring reconstruction of Potomac River
streamflow (950-2001).
Water Resources Research, Vol. 47, W05512,
doi:10.1029/2010WR010019.
Mean May-September Potomac River streamflow was reconstructed
from 950-2001 using a network of tree ring chronologies (n = 27)
representing multiple species. We chose a nested principal
components reconstruction method to maximize use of available
chronologies backward in time. Explained variance during
the period of calibration ranged from 20% to 53% depending on
the number and species of chronologies available in each 25 year
time step. The model was verified by two goodness of fit tests,
the coefficient of efficiency (CE) and the reduction of error
statistic (RE). The RE and CE never fell below zero, suggesting
the model had explanatory power over the entire period of
reconstruction. Beta weights indicated a loss of explained
variance during the 1550-1700 period that we hypothesize
was caused by the reduction in total number of predictor
chronologies and loss of important predictor species.
Thus, the reconstruction is strongest from 1700-2001.
Frequency, intensity, and duration of drought and pluvial
events were examined to aid water resource managers.
We found that the instrumental period did not represent
adequately the full range of annual to multidecadal variability
present in the reconstruction. Our reconstruction of mean
May-September Potomac River streamflow was a significant
improvement over the Cook and Jacoby (1983) reconstruction
because it expanded the seasonal window, lengthened the record
by 780 years, and better replicated the mean and variance
of the instrumental record. By capitalizing on variable
phenologies and tree growth responses to climate, multispecies
reconstructions may provide significantly more information
about past hydroclimate, especially in regions with low aridity
and high tree species diversity.
STUDY NOTES: Reconstruction of May through September Potomac River streamflow
for 950-2001 AD at the Point of Rocks, Maryland USGS streamflow gauge.
The streamflow reconstruction is based on 27 tree ring chronologies
representing multiple species from locations in the Appalachian
Mountains and east to the Atlantic Coast in Maryland, Pennsylvania,
West Virginia, and Virginia. Some of the tree ring chronologies
are available in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/usa/potomac2011flow.xls
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/usa/potomac2011flow.txt
USA/NOAA
DIF
Version 9.8.4
2019-05-17
2019-05-17