noaa-recon-12890 Western North America 500 Year Annual Temperature Reconstruction Wahl, E.R.; Smerdon, J.E. Western North America 500 Year Annual Temperature Reconstruction 2012-04-09 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12890 Investigator E.R. Wahl Investigator J.E. Smerdon earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring temperature,null,ensemble member,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring temperature,null,one standard deviation,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,standard deviation earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring latitude,null,null,degree north,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring longitude,null,null,degree east,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions|tree ring,anomalized|averaged,null,N,mean earth science paleoclimate reconstructions air temperature geoscientificInformation Air Temperature Reconstruction 1500 AD 1980 AD 450 cal yr BP -30 cal yr BP Complete 30 55 -130 -95 Continent North America West Central North America>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

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Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII Wahl, E.R. and J.E. Smerdon. 2012. Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051086

The performance of climate field reconstruction (CFR) and index reconstruction methods is evaluated using proxy and non-informative predictor experiments. The skill of both reconstruction methods is determined using proxy data targeting the western region of North America. The results are compared to those targeting the same region, but derived from non-informative predictors comprising red-noise time series reflecting the full temporal autoregressive structure of the proxy network. All experiments are performed as probabilistic ensembles, providing estimated Monte Carlo distributions of reconstruction skill. Results demonstrate that the CFR skill distributions from proxy data are statistically distinct from and outperform the corresponding skill distributions generated from non-informative predictors; similar relative performance is demonstrated for the index reconstructions. In comparison to the CFR results using proxy information, the index reconstructions exhibit similar skill in calibration, but somewhat less skill in validation and a tendency to underestimate the amplitude of the validation period mean. STUDY NOTES: This article presents a tree ring-based reconstruction of western North America annual temperature over 1500-1980, with 5x5 degree grid cell coverage for the region bounded by 30°-55°N and 95°-130°W. A 1000-member probabilistic ensemble derived by bootstrap methods is employed for characterization of uncertainty. A key result based on the ensemble methodology is that the most recent decades are, at the level of the bi-decadal average, very likely the warmest across the region during the past 500 years. The reconstruction is used in a side-by-side comparison with a parallel reconstruction driven by non-informative predictors that have the same temporal autoregressive structure as the tree ring data. The proxy-based reconstruction clearly outperforms the non-informative predictor-based reconstruction across a suite of calibration and validation skill measures.

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