noaa-recon-12915 Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium Gergis, J.; Neukom, R.; Gallant, A.J.E.; Karoly, D.J. Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium 2016-07-10 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12915 Investigator J. Gergis Investigator R. Neukom Investigator A.J.E. Gallant Investigator D.J. Karoly earth science paleoclimate reconstructions air temperature earth science paleoclimate reconstructions sea surface temperature geoscientificInformation Air Temperature Reconstruction 1000 AD 2001 AD 950 cal yr BP -51 cal yr BP Complete -50 0 110 180 Continent Australia/New Zealand Australasia>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

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Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Ailie J.E. Gallant, and David J. Karoly 2016 Journal of Climate 29 15 5365-5392 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1

Multiproxy warm season (September-February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land-ocean region of Australasia (0-50S, 110E-180E) covering 1000-2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the amplitude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985-2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks-R28, R3, and R2). The reconstructed twentieth-century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone using GISS-E2-R. In this climate model, anthropogenic forcing is required to produce the rate and magnitude of post-1950 warming observed in the Australasian region. These paleoclimate results are consistent with other studies that attribute the post-1950 warming in Australian temperature records to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. STUDY NOTES: Warm season (September-February) temperature reconstruction ensembles for the combined HadCRUT3v land and ocean region of Australasia (0S-50S, 110E-180E) covering A.D. 1000-2001.

GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/gergis2016/ Data Folder; Gergis et al. 2016 Australasian Temperature Reconstruction Data Folder GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/gergis2016/readme-gergis2016.txt Data Description ; Gergis et al. 2016 Australasian Temperature Reconstruction Readme File USA/NOAA DIF Version 9.8.4 2019-05-06 2019-05-06