noaa-recon-13542 Yeruu River, Mongolia 300 Year Streamflow Reconstruction Pederson, N.; Leland, C.; Nachin, B.; Hessl, A.E.; Bell, A.R.; Martin-Benito, D.; Saladyga, T.; Suran, B.; Brown, P.M.; Davi, N.K. Yeruu River, Mongolia 300 Year Streamflow Reconstruction 2012-11-22 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/13542 Investigator N. Pederson Investigator C. Leland Investigator B. Nachin Investigator A.E. Hessl Investigator A.R. Bell Investigator D. Martin-Benito Investigator T. Saladyga Investigator B. Suran Investigator P.M. Brown Investigator N.K. Davi earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring number of samples,null,null,count,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,samples CRN replication earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring streamflow,null,null,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring streamflow,null,95% confidence interval lower bound,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring streamflow,null,95% confidence interval upper bound,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate instrumental streamflow,null,null,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,instrumental,smoothed,null,N,20-year spline earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring streamflow,null,null,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,climate reconstructions|tree ring,smoothed,null,N,20-year spline earth science paleoclimate instrumental streamflow,null,null,cubic meter per second,May-Sep,instrumental,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate reconstructions streamflow geoscientificInformation Streamflow Reconstruction drought hydrology 1680 AD 2009 AD 270 cal yr BP -59 cal yr BP Complete 50.1029 50.1029 106.906 106.906 Continent Asia Eastern Asia Mongolia Yeruu River Gage>LATITUDE 50.1029>LONGITUDE 106.906 None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

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Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII Pederson, N., C. Leland, B. Nachin, A.E. Hessl, A.R. Bell, D. Martin-Benito, T. Saladyga, B. Suran, P.M. Brown, N.K. Davi. 2012. Three centuries of shifting hydroclimatic regimes across the Mongolian Breadbasket. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.003.

In its continuing move toward resource independence, Mongolia has recently entered a new agricultural era. Large crop fields and center-pivot irrigation have been established in the last 10 years across Mongolia's "Breadbasket": the Bulgan, Selenge and Tov aimags of northcentral Mongolia. Since meteorological records are typically short and spatially diffuse, little is known about the frequency and scale of past droughts in this region. We use six chronologies from the eastern portion of the breadbasket region to reconstruct streamflow of the Yeruu River. These chronologies accounted for 60.8% of May-September streamflow from 1959 to 1987 and 74.1% from 1988 to 2001. All split, calibration-verification statistics were positive, indicating significant model reconstruction. Reconstructed Yeruu River streamflow indicates the 20th century to be wetter than the two prior centuries. When comparing the new reconstruction to an earlier reconstruction of Selenge River streamflow, representing the western portion of the breadbasket region, both records document more pluvial events of greater intensity during 20th century versus prior centuries and indicate that the recent decade of drought that lead to greater aridity across the landscape is not unusual in the context of the last 300 years. Most interestingly, variability analyses indicate that the larger river basin in the western breadbasket (the Selenge basin) experiences greater swings in hydroclimate at multi-decadal to centennial time scales while the smaller basin in the eastern portion of the breadbasket (the Yeruu basin) is more stable. From this comparison, there would be less risk in agricultural productivity in the eastern breadbasket region, although the western breadbasket region can potentially be enormously productive for decades at a time before becoming quite dry for an equally long period of time. These results indicate that farmers and water managers need to prepare for both pluvial conditions like those in the late-1700s, and drier conditions like those during the early and mid-1800s. Recent studies have indicated that cultures with plentiful resources are more vulnerable when these resources become diminished. Thus, the instrumental records of the 20th century should not be used as a model of moisture availability. Most importantly, the geographic mismatch between precipitation, infrastructure, and water demand could turn out to be particularly acute for countries like Mongolia, especially as these patterns can switch in space through time. STUDY NOTES: May through September Yeruu River, Mongolia streamflow reconstruction for the last 300 Years, based on six Mongolian tree ring chronologies. Median reconstructed streamflow is 87.814 M3/sec

GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/mongolia/yeruu2012flow.txt USA/NOAA DIF Version 9.8.4 2018-12-11 2018-12-11