noaa-recon-13684
Central Equatorial Pacific NINO3.4 850 Year SST Reconstructions
Emile-Geay, J.; Cobb, K.M.; Mann, M.E.; Wittenberg, A.T.
Central Equatorial Pacific NINO3.4 850 Year SST Reconstructions
2013-01-24
NCDC-Paleoclimatology
ONLINE Files
Pending
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/13684
Investigator
J.
Emile-Geay
Investigator
K.M.
Cobb
Investigator
M.E.
Mann
Investigator
A.T.
Wittenberg
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,95% confidence interval upper bound,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: ERSSTv3; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,null,regression analysis,N,calibration data set: Kaplan et al 1997; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,95% confidence interval upper bound,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: Kaplan et al 1997; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,null,regression analysis,N,calibration data set: ERSSTv3; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: Hadley Center SST v2; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,95% confidence interval upper bound,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: Hadley Center SST v2; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: Kaplan et al 1997; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,95% confidence interval lower bound,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: Hadley Center SST v2; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: ERSSTv3; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,95% confidence interval lower bound,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: ERSSTv3; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,null,regression analysis,N,calibration data set: Hadley Center SST v2; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
sea surface temperature,multiple proxies,95% confidence interval lower bound,degree Celsius,Dec-Feb,climate reconstructions,filtered,regression analysis,N,filter: 20 year lowpass; calibration data set: Kaplan et al 1997; hybrid RegEM TTLS
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
reconstructions
atmospheric circulation
earth science
paleoclimate
reconstructions
sea surface temperature
geoscientificInformation
ENSO
Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction
1150 AD
1995 AD
800 cal yr BP
-45 cal yr BP
Complete
-5
5
-170
-120
Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Eastern Pacific Ocean
Nino3.4>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE
None
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English
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI
National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
DATA Center Contact
Bruce
Bauer
bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov
paleo@noaa.gov
303-497-6280
303-497-6513
325 Broadway, E/NE31
Boulder
CO
80305-3328
USA
online
ASCII
Emile-Geay, J., K.M. Cobb, M.E. Mann, and A.T. Wittenberg.
Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over
the Past Millennium. Part 2: Reconstructions and Implications.
Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, pp. 2329-2352.
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00511.1
Emile-Geay, J., K.M. Cobb, M.E. Mann, and A.T. Wittenberg.
Estimating Central Equatorial Pacific SST variability over
the Past Millennium. Part 1: Methodology and Validation.
Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, pp. 2302-2328
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00510.1
Reducing the uncertainties surrounding the impacts of anthropogenic
climate change requires vetting general circulation models (GCMs)
against long records of past natural climate variability. This is
particularly challenging in the tropical Pacific, where short,
sparse instrumental data preclude GCM validation on multidecadal-
to-centennial timescales. In this two-part paper, we apply two
statistical methodologies to a network of accurately dated tropical
climate records to reconstruct sea-surface temperature (SST)
variability in the NINO3.4 region over the past millennium.
While part 1 described the methods and established their validity
and limitations, this paper presents several reconstructions
of NINO3.4, analyzes their sensitivity to procedural choices
and input data, and compares them to climate forcing timeseries
and previously published tropical Pacific SST reconstructions.
Our reconstructions show remarkably similar behavior at decadal
to multidecadal scales, but diverge markedly on centennial scales.
The amplitude of centennial variability in each reconstruction
scales with the magnitude of the 1860-1995 trend in the target
dataset's NINO3.4 index, with ERSSTv3>HadSST2>Kaplan -these
discrepancies constitute a major source of uncertainty in
reconstructing pre-instrumental NINO3.4 SST. Despite inevitable
variance losses, the reconstructed multidecadal variability
exceeds that simulated by a state-of-the-art GCM (forced
and unforced) over the past millennium, while reconstructed
centennial variability is incompatible with constant boundary
conditions. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals a robust
anti-phasing between solar forcing and NINO3.4 SST on
bicentennial timescales, but not on shorter timescales.
Implications for GCM representations of the tropical Pacific
climate response to radiative forcing are then discussed.
STUDY NOTES: 1000 year reconstructions of NINO3.4 region (Central Equatorial Pacific)
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). RegEM reconstructions of HadSST2i, Kaplan
and ERSSTv3 SST's are presented.
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/users_guide.m
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/plotTickLatex2D.m
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https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/NINO34_ttls_3target_2012_proxy_db.mat
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https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/emile-geay2012.txt
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https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/NINO34_proxy_database_annual_2012ds.mat
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/hepta_figprint.m
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https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/JEG_graphics.mat
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https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/emile-geay2013.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/millennium_trop_forcings2011.mat
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/emile-geay2012.xls
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/emile-geay2012/ENSO_indices.mat
USA/NOAA
DIF
Version 9.8.4
2019-03-22
2019-03-22