noaa-recon-14250
Northern Hemisphere 1000 Year Multiproxy Temperature Reconstruction
Shi, F.; Yang, B.; Mairesse, A.; von Gunten, L.; Li, J.; Bräuning, A.; Yang, F.; Xiao, X.
Northern Hemisphere 1000 Year Multiproxy Temperature Reconstruction
2013-04-24
NCDC-Paleoclimatology
ONLINE Files
Pending
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/14250
Investigator
F.
Shi
Investigator
B.
Yang
Investigator
A.
Mairesse
Investigator
L.
von Gunten
Investigator
J.
Li
Investigator
A.
Bräuning
Investigator
F.
Yang
Investigator
X.
Xiao
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,principal component analysis,N,PC10+AR2; smoothed loess 0.01; anomalized 1961-1990 A.D.
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,regression analysis,N,anomalized 1961-1990 AD; regularized errors-in-variables
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,range upper bound,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,principal component analysis,N,PC10+AR2; smoothed loess 0.01; anomalized 1961-1990 A.D.
earth science
paleoclimate
instrumental
surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,instrumental,anomalized|smoothed,null,N,CRUTEM3v; anomalized from 1961-1990 AD
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,range lower bound,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,principal component analysis,N,PC10+AR2; smoothed loess 0.01; anomalized 1961-1990 A.D.
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,multiple proxies,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized|smoothed,composite plus scale,N,anomalized 1961-1990 AD
earth science
paleoclimate
reconstructions
air temperature
geoscientificInformation
Air Temperature Reconstruction
1000 AD
2009 AD
950 cal yr BP
-59 cal yr BP
Complete
0
90
-180
180
Geographic Region
Northern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE
None
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English
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI
National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
DATA Center Contact
Bruce
Bauer
bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov
paleo@noaa.gov
303-497-6280
303-497-6513
325 Broadway, E/NE31
Boulder
CO
80305-3328
USA
online
ASCII
Feng Shi, Bao Yang, Aurèlien Mairesse, Lucien von Gunten, Jianping Li, Achim Bräuning, Fengmei Yang, Xia Xiao. 2013.
Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies. Climate Research, Vol. 56, Issue 3, pp. 231-244. DOI: 10.3354/cr01156
Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.
STUDY NOTES: Northern Hemisphere 1000 year annual temperature reconstructions based on 45 published
temperature proxy records, including ice core, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothem records.
The average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium was reconstructed by
3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) 10 principal components (PC10+AR2) plus second-order
autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS), and (3) regularized errors-in-variables
approach (EIV). Figure 2 data are Northern Hemisphere (NH) land temperature anomalies (with respect to
AD 1961-1990) over the last 1000 yr reconstructed with PC10+AR2 (red solid line), CPS (black solid line)
and EIV (blue dashed line). The 3 reconstruction results were smoothed by the loess method (span: 0.01).
All models were fitted to the period AD 1850-1998 and reconstructed for AD 998-1849. Figure 4 data are
with 0.05 filtered values for AD 1001-1960. Every series was firstly expressed as anomalies from AD 1850-1960,
and was then variance matched using the instrumental data from AD 1850-1960.
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/shi2013/shi2013nh.txt
USA/NOAA
DIF
Version 9.8.4
2018-12-11
2018-12-11