noaa-recon-14749
Northern Hemisphere 700 Year Temperature Reconstruction
Hegerl, G.C.; Crowley, T.J.; Hyde, W.T.; Frame, D.J.
Northern Hemisphere 700 Year Temperature Reconstruction
2013-07-11
NCDC-Paleoclimatology
ONLINE Files
Pending
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/14749
Investigator
G.C.
Hegerl
Investigator
T.J.
Crowley
Investigator
W.T.
Hyde
Investigator
D.J.
Frame
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
volcanic forcing,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,volc0-30N
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
greenhouse gas forcing,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
volcanic forcing,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,volc30-90N
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
volcanic forcing,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,volc0-30S
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
volcanic forcing,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,volc30-90S
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,null,null,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,null,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized,null,N,2.5th percentile
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
solar irradiance,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate forcing,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
climate forcing
anthropogenic aerosol forcing,null,null,watt per square meter,null,climate forcing,anomalized,null,N,tropospheric aerosols
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
surface temperature,null,percentile,degree Celsius,annual,climate reconstructions,anomalized,null,N,97.5th percentile
earth science
paleoclimate
climate reconstructions
age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions,null,null,N,null
earth science
paleoclimate
reconstructions
air temperature
geoscientificInformation
Air Temperature Reconstruction
sensitivity
temperature
1000 AD
2001 AD
950 cal yr BP
-51 cal yr BP
Complete
30
90
-180
180
Geographic Region
Northern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere Extratropics>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE
None
Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.
English
DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI
National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
DATA Center Contact
Bruce
Bauer
bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov
paleo@noaa.gov
303-497-6280
303-497-6513
325 Broadway, E/NE31
Boulder
CO
80305-3328
USA
online
ASCII
Gabriele C. Hegerl, Thomas J. Crowley, William T. Hyde, and David J. Frame. 2006. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature, Vol. 440, No. 7087, pp. 1029-1032, 20 April 2006.
DOI: 10.1038/nature04679
The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K. A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K. Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.
STUDY NOTES: 30-90°N annual mean temperature reconstruction (CH-blend),
used with large-ensemble energy balance modelling to simulate the temperature response
to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing, in order to determine which climate
sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions.
The data include the CH-blend reconstruction and 2.5% and 97.5% uncertainty ranges.
The uncertainty ranges reflect both uncertainty in the amplitude of the reconstruction,
and sampling uncertainty combined.
Forcing inputs also included in file hegerl2006forcing.txt
Supplementary Table 1 archived here, and its heading, were replaced on 5 February 2007.
This is a corrected version of the previous Table S1, in which only the scaling uncertainty
was included; in the corrected Table S1, scaling and sampling uncertainties are also included.
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hegerl2006/hegerl2006forcing.txt
GET DATA
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hegerl2006/hegerl2006nh-temp.txt
USA/NOAA
DIF
Version 9.8.4
2019-06-18
2019-06-18