noaa-recon-19600 European Mean and Spatial Summer Temperature Reconstructions Since Roman Times Luterbacher, J.; Werner, J.P.; Smerdon, J.E.; Fernández-Donado, L.; González-Rouco, J.F.; Barriopedro, D.; Ljungqvist, F.C.; Büntgen, U.; Zorita, E.; Wagner, S.; Esper, J.; McCarroll, D.; Toreti, A.; Frank, D.C.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Barriendos, M.; Bertolin, C.; Bothe, O.; Brázdil, R.; Camuffo, D.; Dobrovolný, P.; Gagen, M.; García-Bustamante, E.; Ge, Q.; Gómez-Navarro, J.J.; Guiot, J.; Hao, Z.; Hegerl, G.C.; Holmgren, K.; Klimenko, V.V.; Martín-Chivelet, J.; Pfister, C.; Roberts, N.; Schindler, A.; Schurer, A.P.; Solomina, O.; von Gunten, L.; Wahl, E.R.; Wanner, H.; Wetter, O.; Xoplaki, E.; Yuan, N.; Zanchettin, D.; Zhang, H.; Zerefos, C. European Mean and Spatial Summer Temperature Reconstructions Since Roman Times 2016-01-29 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/19600 Investigator J. Luterbacher Investigator J.P. Werner Investigator J.E. Smerdon Investigator L. Fernández-Donado Investigator J.F. González-Rouco Investigator D. Barriopedro Investigator F.C. Ljungqvist Investigator U. Büntgen Investigator E. Zorita Investigator S. Wagner Investigator J. Esper Investigator D. McCarroll Investigator A. Toreti Investigator D.C. Frank Investigator J.H. Jungclaus Investigator M. Barriendos Investigator C. Bertolin Investigator O. Bothe Investigator R. Brázdil Investigator D. Camuffo Investigator P. Dobrovolný Investigator M. Gagen Investigator E. García-Bustamante Investigator Q. Ge Investigator J.J. Gómez-Navarro Investigator J. Guiot Investigator Z. Hao Investigator G.C. Hegerl Investigator K. Holmgren Investigator V.V. Klimenko Investigator J. Martín-Chivelet Investigator C. Pfister Investigator N. Roberts Investigator A. Schindler Investigator A.P. Schurer Investigator O. Solomina Investigator L. von Gunten Investigator E.R. Wahl Investigator H. Wanner Investigator O. Wetter Investigator E. Xoplaki Investigator N. Yuan Investigator D. Zanchettin Investigator H. Zhang Investigator C. Zerefos earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,ensemble mean; based on latewood density earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,based on latewood density earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,null,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,based on latewood density earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,two standard deviations lower bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,based on latewood density earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,percentile,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,based on latewood density; 2.5th percentile earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring latitude,null,null,degree north,null,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,two standard deviations upper bound,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,composite plus scale,N,based on latewood density earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,percentile,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,based on latewood density; 97.5th percentile earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring longitude,null,null,degree east,null,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring surface temperature,ring density|ring width,ensemble member,degree Celsius,Jun-Aug,climate reconstructions|historical|tree ring,anomalized,Bayesian hierarchical modeling,N,based on latewood density earth science paleoclimate reconstructions air temperature geoscientificInformation Air Temperature Reconstruction PAGES Euro-Med 2k -138 AD 2011 AD 2088 cal yr BP -61 cal yr BP Complete 35 70 -25 40 Continent Europe Europe>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

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Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII J. Luterbacher, J. P. Werner, J. E. Smerdon, L. Fernández-Donado, F. J. González Rouco, D. Barriopedro, F.C. Ljungqvist, U. Büntgen, E. Zorita, S. Wagner, J. Esper, D. McCarroll, A. Toreti, D. Frank, J. H. Jungclaus, M. Barriendos, C. Bertolin, O. Bothe, R. Brázdil, D. Camuffo, P. Dobrovolný, M. Gagen, E. García-Bustamante, Q. Ge, J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. Guiot, Z. Hao, G. C. Hegerl, K. Holmgren, V.V. Klimenko, J. Martín-Chivelet, C. Pfister, N. Roberts, A. Schindler, A. Schurer, O. Solomina, L. von Gunten, E. Wahl, H. Wanner, O. Wetter, E. Xoplaki, N. Yuan, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang and C. Zerefos. 2016 Environmental Research Letters 024001 11 2 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales. STUDY NOTES: Spatial (5x5 degree grid) reconstructions of European summer (June-August) temperature back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), plus estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE, based on composite-plus-scaling (CPS).

GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/EuroMed2k/BHM_Eu2k2_Recon_Ensembles.nc netCDF Data File; EuroMed2k BHM Temperature Reconstruction Ensemble Members GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/EuroMed2k/BHM_Eu2k2_Recon.nc netCDF Data File; EuroMed2k BHM Temperature Reconstruction Ensemble Mean GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/EuroMed2k/EuMeanDist_noInst.txt Text Data File; EuroMed2k Summer Temperature Reconstruction Spatial Mean GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/EuroMed2k/readme-luterbacher2016.txt Data Description; EuroMed2k Readme File GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/pages2k/EuroMed2k/eujja_2krecon_nested_cps.txt Text Data File; EuroMed2k CPS Summer Temperature Reconstruction USA/NOAA DIF Version 9.8.4 2018-12-11 2018-12-11