noaa-recon-22198 North America/North Pacific 300 Year Reconstructed Cool-Season Storm Tracks Wise, E.K.; Dannenberg, M.P. North America/North Pacific 300 Year Reconstructed Cool-Season Storm Tracks 2017-06-07 NCDC-Paleoclimatology ONLINE Files Pending https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/22198 Investigator E.K. Wise Investigator M.P. Dannenberg earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring age,null,null,year Common Era,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,composite plus scale,N,storm track latitude; assigned to the ending year of the season earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,null,square meter per square second,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,composite plus scale,N,storm track intensity; assigned to the ending year of the season earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,verification root mean square error,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for reconstructed storm-track intensity for each longitudinal transect. earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,verification root mean square error,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the instrumental storm track position and the CPS-predicted storm track position for each longitudinal transect. earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,composite plus scale,N,"Vector of storm track position (degrees N) at 124W for each year of the reconstructed time period (1693-1995), determined by fitting a straight line (using ordinary least squares regression) to the reconstructed storm track position over the region 136°W to 124°W.; assigned to the ending year of the season" earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,verification coefficient of efficiency,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) between the instrumental storm track position and the CPS-predicted storm track position (where Coefficient of Efficiency values > 0 indicate predictive skill) for each longitudinal transect. earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,verification coefficient of determination,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of determination (r2) between the instrumental storm track position and composite-plus-scale (CPS)-predicted storm track position for each longitudinal transect. earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,verification coefficient of determination,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of determination (r2) for reconstructed storm-track intensity for each longitudinal transect. earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,climate reconstructions|tree ring,smoothed,composite plus scale,N,storm track latitude; assigned to the ending year of the season; smoothed with a robust loess filter earth science paleoclimate instrumental storm track,null,null,square meter per square second,Oct-Mar,instrumental,null,null,N,storm track intensity earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring storm track,null,verification coefficient of efficiency,dimensionless,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,Coefficient of efficiency (CE) for reconstructed storm-track intensity for each longitudinal transect. earth science paleoclimate instrumental storm track,null,null,degree north,Oct-Mar,instrumental,null,null,N,storm track latitude earth science paleoclimate climate reconstructions|tree ring longitude,null,null,degree east,null,climate reconstructions|tree ring,null,null,N,null earth science paleoclimate reconstructions atmospheric circulation geoscientificInformation ENSO Other Hydroclimate Reconstruction 1693 AD 1995 AD 257 cal yr BP -45 cal yr BP Complete 25 75 -150 -110 Continent North America North America/North Pacific>LATITUDE >LONGITUDE None Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. English DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data DATA Center Contact Bruce Bauer bruce.a.bauer@noaa.gov paleo@noaa.gov 303-497-6280 303-497-6513

325 Broadway, E/NE31

Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA online ASCII Erika K. Wise and Matthew P. Dannenberg 2017 Science Advances e1602263 3 6 10.1126/sciadv.1602263 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/6/e1602263

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. STUDY NOTES: Reconstructed cool-season (Oct-Mar) storm track position (decimal degrees N) and intensity (m^2 s^-2), based on tree-ring chronologies using a composite-plus-scale method (CPS)

GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/readme-wise2017stormtrack.txt Data Description; Reconstructed Cool-Season Storm Tracks Readme File GET DATA https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/wise2017stormtrack.nc netCDF Data File; Reconstructed Cool-Season Storm Tracks USA/NOAA DIF Version 9.8.4 2018-12-11 2018-12-11