noaa-recon-12035 eng; USA utf8 dataset Bauer, Bruce DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce +1 303-497-6280 +1 303-497-6513 325 Broadway, E/CC23 Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA paleo@noaa.gov pointOfContact 2018-12-11 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions for the Past 1500 Years 2010-04-01 publication noaa-recon-12035 NCEI DSI 1200_01 Mann, M.E. originator Mann, M.E. author Woodruff, J.D. originator Woodruff, J.D. author Donnelly, J.P. originator Donnelly, J.P. author Zhang, Z. originator Zhang, Z. author NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information publisher tableDigital This archived Paleoclimatology Study is available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), under the World Data Service (WDS) for Paleoclimatology. The associated NCEI study type is Climate Reconstruction. The data include parameters of climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology with a geographic location of Atlantic Ocean. The time period coverage is from 1450 to -56 in calendar years before present (BP). See metadata information for parameter and study location details. Please cite this study when using the data. Records of past temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables derived from paleoclimate proxies. Parameter keywords describe what was measured in this data set. Additional summary information can be found in the abstracts of papers listed in the data set citations. completed Bauer, Bruce DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce +1 303-497-6280 +1 303-497-6513 325 Broadway, E/CC23 Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA paleo@noaa.gov pointOfContact https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/c/images/pc-default-recon.png Paleoclimatology - Climate Reconstruction PNG Earth Science > Climate Indicators > Paleoclimate Indicators > Paleoclimate Reconstructions theme Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Science Keywords 2018 revision Version 8.6 Global Change Data Center, Science and Exploration Directorate, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) https://earthdata.nasa.gov/about/gcmd/global-change-master-directory-gcmd-keywords HTTPS Web Browser Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Keywords The information provided on this page seeks to define how the GCMD Keywords are structured, used and accessed. It also provides information on how users can participate in the further development of the keywords. information publisher earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > paleoceanography earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > paleoceanography earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > paleoceanography earth science > paleoclimate > paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > climate reconstructions|paleoceanography|paleolimnology earth science > paleoclimate > instrumental earth science > paleoclimate > reconstructions > atmospheric circulation theme Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Science Keywords 2018 revision Version 8.6 Global Change Data Center, Science and Exploration Directorate, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) https://earthdata.nasa.gov/about/gcmd/global-change-master-directory-gcmd-keywords HTTPS Web Browser Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Keywords The information provided on this page seeks to define how the GCMD Keywords are structured, used and accessed. It also provides information on how users can participate in the further development of the keywords. information publisher Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones Reconstruction theme Ocean > Atlantic Ocean> Atlantic Ocean > LATITUDE > LONGITUDE place otherRestrictions Cite as: Mann, M.E.; Woodruff, J.D.; Donnelly, J.P.; Zhang, Z. (2010-04-01): NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions for the Past 1500 Years. [indicate subset used]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12035. Accessed [date]. otherRestrictions Distribution liability: NOAA and NCEI make no warranty, expressed or implied, regarding these data, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such a warranty. NOAA and NCEI cannot assume liability for any damages caused by any errors or omissions in these data. If appropriate, NCEI can only certify that the data it distributes are an authentic copy of the records that were accepted for inclusion in the NCEI archives. otherRestrictions Use liability: NOAA and NCEI cannot provide any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of furnished data. Users assume responsibility to determine the usability of these data. The user is responsible for the results of any application of this data for other than its intended purpose. otherRestrictions None otherRestrictions Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site. eng; USA geoscientificInformation Date Range: 500 AD to 2006 AD; Date Range: 1450 cal yr BP to -56 cal yr BP; -84 20 -60 70 500 2006 STUDY NOTES: Supplemental Information for Mann et al (2009) Nature Historical Tropical Cyclone (TC) counts TC counts [Year | Annual | Decadal Smoothed| Multidecadal Smoothed] Standard case [Mann et al '07 adjustments](1870-2006), file TC.dat Alternative case [Landsea '07 adjustments](1870-2006), file TCLandsea.dat Annual Instrumental Climate Series Used to Train Statistical Model SST Products [Year | Blended | HadISST_ | Kaplan | NOAA ERSST] MDR ASO SST (1870-2006) (anomalies relative to 1870-2006 mean), file mdr.dat Nino3 DJF (1870-2006, where year is 'D' in DJF) (anomalies relative to 1870-2006 mean), file nino3.dat NAO Series [Year | Index Value (CRU NAO data)] NAO DJFM (1870-2006, where year is 'D' in DJFM) (anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean), file nao.dat Decadally-Resolved Proxy Reconstructions Used in Statistical Model TC Predictions (anomalies relative to same base periods as above) Proxy Reconstruction [Year | Reconstructed Value | -2 sigma limit | +2 sigma limit] MDR (AD 850-1850) [from ref. 17 of article, reconstruction was trained on modern HadCRU SST data], file mdrrecon.dat Nino3 (AD 850-1850) [from ref. 17 of article, reconstruction was trained on modern HadCRU SST data], file ninorecon.dat NAO (AD 1500-1850) [from ref. 18 of article, Luterbacher proxy/historical winter NAO reconstruction], file naorecon.dat Corresponding Instrumental Series [Year | HadCRU MDR| HadCRU Nino3 | Luterbacher+CRU NAO] Decadal Instrumental Series shown in Fig 3 of paper [from ref.s 17 and 18 of article] (1851-2006), file instrdec.dat Statistical Model Predictions of TC Past Activity Proxy-Driven Predictions [Year | Predictions ] Standard case (uses Mann et al ’07 adjustment of historical TC series) (AD 500-1850), file TCStatModelRecon.dat Alternative Case (uses Landsea ‘07 adjustment of historical TC series) (AD 500-1850), file TCStatModelReconLandsea.dat Training Interval Fit [Year | Annual | Decadal Smoothed | Multidecadal Smoothed] Standard case (uses Mann et al ’07 adjustment of historical TC series) (1870-2006), file TCStatModel.dat Alternative case (uses Landsea ‘07 adjustment of historical TC series) (1870-2006), file TCStatModelLandsea.dat Raw Individual Overwash Sediment Deposit Chronologies Event Chronologies [ best estimate date | -1 sigma age limit | +1 sigma age limit] Mattapoisett Marsh, MA (ref. 15 of article), file MAmatta.dat Succotash Marsh, RI (ref. 14 of article), file RIsucc.dat Alder Island, NY (ref. 9 of article), file NYAlder.dat Brigantine, NJ (ref. 13 of article), file NJBrig.dat Whale Beach, NJ (ref. 12 of article), file NJWhale.dat Singleton Swash, SC (ref. 8 of article; "oyster bed dates" AD 169, 652, 1283 not used-see article), file SCSingleton.dat Western Lake, FL (ref. 11 of article), file FLWestern.dat Laguna Playa Grande Lake, Vieques, PR (ref.s 6,9,10 of article), file PRVieques.dat Regionally Composited Sediment Chronologies Event Chronologies [ best estimate date | -1 sigma age limit | +1 sigma age limit] New England U.S. Coast, file NewEng.dat Mid Atlantic U.S. Coast, file MidAtl.dat Southeast U.S. Coast, file Southeast.dat Gulf U.S. Coast, file Gulf.dat Caribbean, file Caribbean.dat Sediment-Based Basin-Wide Landfalling Hurricane Series and Jacknife Surrogates (see "Methods" for details) Series [Year | Value | Value w/out post 1700 Vieques | j.k. surr1|j.k. surr2| j.k. surr3 | j.k.surr4| j.k. surr5 ] Standard case (chronologies normalized, variable sensitivity assumed among sites)(AD 500-1991), file TCoverwash.dat Alternative case (chronologies not normalized) (AD 500-1991), file TCoverwashUnNorm.dat Alternative case (uniform assumed sensitivity among sites) (AD 500-1991), file TCoverwashUniformPeriod.dat Alternative case (uniform weights on sites) (AD 500-1991), file TCoverwashUniformWeights.dat Matlab© Codes for Performing the Analyses Described in the Article Driver for overall analysis, file PaleoTC.m Code to fit Poisson regression model and apply to proxy reconstructions to yield long-term TC reconstruction and associated standard errors, file StatModelPaleoTC.m Code to compute ensemble of basin-wide landfalling hurricane series from sediment chronologies and their estimated age model uncertainties, file MakeProxMC.m Same as "MakeProxMC" but without New England records, file MakeProxMCNoNE.m Same as "MakeProxMC" but without Mid-Atlantic records, file MakeProxMCNoMidAtl.m Same as "MakeProxMC" but without Southeast U.S. record, file MakeProxMCNoSC.m Same as "MakeProxMC" but without Gulf Coast record, file MakeProxMCNoGulf.m Same as "MakeProxMC" but without Puerto Rico record, file MakeProxMCNoPR.m Same as "MakeproxMC" but without Puerto record after AD 1700, file MakeProxMCNoPRRecent.m Code to compute Gaussian random deviates used by "StatModelPaleoTC.m", file gasdev.m Lowpass filtering codes used in various routines from Mann GRL '08 Note that the access to ©Matlab ‘signal’ toolkit is required Lowpass filter routine to approximately implement min norm/min slope/min roughness boundary constraints as described in manuscript, file lowpass.m Lowpass filter routine to implement 'mean padded' boundary constraints as described in manuscript, file lowpassmeanpad.m Lowpass filter routine to implement 'adaptive' boundary constraints as described in manuscript (minor errors fixed 9/2/08: (i) upper limit error bound too low; (ii) w3 could be chosen such that weights don’t add to unity; under most circumstances - including the analyses in the manuscript - these errors do not influence results obtained, but they could under some circumstances), file lowpassadaptive.m Lowpass filter routine used for lower boundary constraint by 'lowpassadaptive', file lowpassmin.m ABSTRACT SUPPLIED BY ORIGINATOR: Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Nina-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth. DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI > National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce Customer Engagement Branch 1-828-271-4800 1-828-271-4876 151 Patton Avenue Veach-Baley Federal Building, Room 468 Asheville NC 28801-5001 USA ncei.orders@noaa.gov https://www.ncei.noaa.gov HTTPS Web Browser NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) NCEI home page with information, data access and contact information. information 8:00 - 6:00 Eastern distributor In most cases, electronic downloads of the data are free, however fees may apply for data certifications, copies of analog materials, and data distribution on physical media. Native Format(s) https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iso?id=noaa-recon-12035 HTTPS Landing Page NCEI landing page for this dataset Dataset landing page with general information and links to access the data. information https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12035 HTTPS Web Browser NCEI Study Page Study page with dataset access information. search https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction HTTPS Information NCEI Climate Reconstruction Page General information for this data type. information https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2009/mdr.dat HTTPS Download /contributions_by_author/mann2009/mdr.dat Original Data and Full Metadata download https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2009/TCStatModelRecon.dat HTTPS Download /contributions_by_author/mann2009/TCStatModelRecon.dat Original Data and Full Metadata download 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https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2009/SCSingleton.dat HTTPS Download /contributions_by_author/mann2009/SCSingleton.dat Original Data and Full Metadata download https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2009/Gulf.dat HTTPS Download /contributions_by_author/mann2009/Gulf.dat Original Data and Full Metadata download https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2009/MakeProxMCNoMidAtl.m HTTPS Download /contributions_by_author/mann2009/MakeProxMCNoMidAtl.m Original Data and Full Metadata download asNeeded This metadata record was translated from DIF using dif-9x-to-iso-19115-2.xsl Version: 2018-10-25