{"NOAAStudyId":"10477","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2011-03-14","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/paleoclimatology-modeling","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-model-10477.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":1150,"earliestYearCE":800,"entryId":"noaa-model-10477","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"ENIGMA project of the Max Planck Society","fundingGrant":null},{"fundingAgency":"DFG CAWSES Priority Program","fundingGrant":null},{"fundingAgency":"DFG Collaborative Research Center 574","fundingGrant":null},{"fundingAgency":"WCU program of the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology","fundingGrant":null}],"investigators":"Jungclaus, J.H.","mostRecentYearBP":-150,"mostRecentYearCE":2100,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/10477","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"A long-standing task in climate research has been to distinguish between anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. A prerequisite for fulfilling this task is the understanding of the relative roles of external drivers and internal variability of climate and the carbon cycle. Here, we present the first ensemble simulations over the last 1200 years with a comprehensive Earth system model including a fully interactive carbon cycle. Applying up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing including the recent low-amplitude estimates of solar variations, the ensemble simulations reproduce temperature evolutions consistent with the range of reconstructions. The 20th-century warming trend stands out against all pre-industrial trends within the ensemble. Volcanic eruptions are necessary to explain variations in pre-industrial climate such as the Little Ice Age; yet only the strongest, repeated eruptions lead to cooling trends that differ significantly from the internal variability across all ensemble members. The simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations exhibit a stable carbon cycle over the pre-industrial era with multi-centennial variations somewhat smaller than in the observational records. Early land-cover changes have modulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations only slightly. We provide a model-based quantification of the sensitivity (termed γ) of the global carbon cycle to temperature for a variety of climate and forcing conditions. We diagnose a distinct dependence of γ on the forcing strength and time-scales involved, thus providing a possible explanation for the systematic difference in the observational estimates for different segments of the last millennium.\n","author":null,"citation":"Jungclaus, J.H., S.J. Lorenz, C. Timmreck, C.H. Reick, V. Brovkin, K. Six, J. Segschneider, M.A. Giorgetta, T.J. Crowley, J. Pongratz, N.A. Krivova, L.E. Vieira, S.K. Solanki, D. Klocke, M. Botzet, M. Esch, V. Gayler, H. Haak, T.J. Raddatz, E. Roeckner, R. Schnur, H. Widmann, M. Claussen, B. Stevens and J. Marotzke. 2010. Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium. Clim. Past, 6, 723-737, doi:10.5194/cp-6-723-2010","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.5194/cp-6-723-2010","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010"},"issue":null,"journal":"Climate of the Past","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2010,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium","type":"publication","volume":null}],"reconstruction":"N","scienceKeywords":["sensitivity"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"22723","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["-90","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"-90","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Global","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"19275","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>model>ocean model","earth science>paleoclimate>model>atmosphere model"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/mpi/","linkText":"MILL-COSMOS Files","urlDescription":"Data Folder","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree north","cvWhat":"sampling metadata>latitude"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree east","cvWhat":"sampling metadata>longitude"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"pascal","cvWhat":"earth system variable>circulation variable>sea level pressure"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"2 meter air temperature","cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"kelvin","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>air temperature>surface air temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"kilogram per square meter per second","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate rate>precipitation"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"kelvin","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"}]},{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>model>ocean model","earth science>paleoclimate>model>atmosphere model"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/mpi/MILL-COSMOS-readme.txt","linkText":"MILL-COSMOS-readme.txt","urlDescription":"Readme","variables":[]}],"dataTableName":"MILLENNIUM-COSMOS","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":800,"earliestYearBP":1150,"earliestYearCE":800,"mostRecentYear":2100,"mostRecentYearBP":-150,"mostRecentYearCE":2100,"species":[],"timeUnit":"AD"}],"siteName":"Global"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Ensemble Simulation of the Last Millennium using the Comprehensive COSMOS Earth System Model","studyNotes":"The data is all monthly means on a 96 x 48 gaussian grid.\n\nExperiment ID\tLength\tDescription\nmil0001_EH5_mm\t800-3800\tyr. 800 control experiment\nmil0002_EH5_mm\t800-2100\tland use change only (best guess)\nmil0005_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tsolar forcing only\nmil0006_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tsolar forcing only (scaled to 0.25% amp.)\nmil0007_EH5_mm\t800-2100\tas mil0002, only biogeochemical influence of land cover changes\nmil0008_EH5_mm\t1860-2100\tas mil002, plus fossil fuel emissions\nmil0009_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tVolcanoes only\nmil0010_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tfull forcing (ensemble member 1)\nmil0012_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tfull forcing (ensemble member 2)\nmil0013_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tfull forcing (ensemble member 3)\nmil0014_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tfull forcing (ensemble member 4)\nmil0015_EH5_mm\t800-2005\tfull forcing (ensemble member 5)\nmil0021_EH5_mm\t800-2100\tfull forcing using solar forcing of Bard (ensemble member 1)\nmil0025_EH5_mm\t800-2100\tfull forcing using solar forcing of Bard (ensemble member 2)\nmil0026_EH5_mm\t800-2100\tfull forcing using solar forcing of Bard (ensemble member 3)\n","version":"1.0","xmlId":"9141"}