{"NOAAStudyId":"12280","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2011-12-09","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/paleoclimatology-modeling","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-model-12280.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":21000,"earliestYearCE":-19050,"entryId":"noaa-model-12280","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"US National Science Foundation","fundingGrant":"06023950-ATM"}],"investigators":"Schmittner, A.; Urban, N.M.; Shakun, J.D.; Mahowald, N.; Clark, P.U.; Bartlein, P.J.; Mix, A.C.; Rosell-Melé, A.","mostRecentYearBP":18000,"mostRecentYearCE":-16050,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12280","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions \r\nis currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of \r\nequilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide \r\ndoubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, \r\n2-4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities \r\nfor much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant\r\nchance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult \r\nto avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature \r\nreconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model \r\nsimulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced \r\nuncertainty (1.7-2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic\r\nconstraints apply to the future as predicted by our model,\r\nthese results imply lower probability of imminent extreme\r\nclimatic change than previously thought. \r\n","author":null,"citation":"Schmittner, A., N.M. Urban, J.D. Shakun, N.M. Mahowald, P.U. Clark,\r\nP.J. Bartlein, A.C. Mix, and A. Rosell-Melé. 2011. \r\nClimate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions \r\nof the Last Glacial Maximum. \r\nScience, Vol. 334, No. 6061, pp. 1385-1388, 9 December 2011. \r\nDOI: 10.1126/science.1203513 \r\nPublished Online November 24 2011\r\n","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1126/science.1203513 ","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1203513 "},"issue":null,"journal":"Science","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2011,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions  of the Last Glacial Maximum","type":"publication","volume":null}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Air Temperature Reconstruction","Last Glacial Maximum","sensitivity"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"22723","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["-90","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"-90","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Global","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"20628","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>model>atmosphere model"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/uvic/schmittner2011/","linkText":"Data Folder","urlDescription":"Data Folder","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>air temperature>surface air temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>sea water temperature>sea surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>cryospheric variable>cryospheric quantity>sea ice cover"}]},{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>model>atmosphere model"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/uvic/schmittner2011/readme-schmittner2011.txt","linkText":"readme-schmittner2011.txt","urlDescription":"Readme","variables":[]}],"dataTableName":"schmittner2011","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":21000,"earliestYearBP":21000,"earliestYearCE":-19050,"mostRecentYear":18000,"mostRecentYearBP":18000,"mostRecentYearCE":-16050,"species":[],"timeUnit":"cal yr BP"}],"siteName":"Global"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Last Glacial Maximum Temperature Reconstructions and Climate Sensitivity","studyNotes":"Data for Schmittner et al. 2011 \n\"Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Temperature Reconstructions \nof the Last Glacial Maximum\" Science 334:1385. \nData archived at NOAA/WDC for Paleoclimatology: \nftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/uvic/schmittner2011/ \n\nBartlein et al. 2010 data set available at: \nhttp://www.springerlink.com/content/2762k2451307l623/382_2010_Article_904_ESM.html \nor \nhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/bartlein2010/bartlein2010.html \n\nMARGO Project data are available at: \nhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/margo2009/margo2009.html \nand in the netCDF file margo09.nc \n\nShakun et al. LGM temperature anomalies are available as a combined \nExcel file:\nLGM_deltaT_synthesis_Shakun_etal_2011.xlsx \nor as three separate netcdf files containing updated MARGO grid points: \ndt_updated_MARGO.nc\nother ocean grid points: \ndt_other_ocean.nc \nand land grid points on a 2x2 grid: \ndt_other_land_2x2.nc \n \nNote that the updates MARGO grid points should replace the corresponding \ndata in the original MARGO dataset. \n\nA Table with references is also provided: \nShakun_table.pdf \n\nThe results from the UVic model simulations from the pre-industrial \ncontrol and LGM simulations are in the file: \nsat_sst_aice.tar.gz\n\nThe probability density functions PDFs (Figure 3) are in file: \nECS_pdfs.txt \nand the random samples from the Markov chains from which the pdfs \nwere derived are in the file: \nECS_chains.txt.gz \n\n\n\n\n","version":"1.0","xmlId":"10342"}