{"NOAAStudyId":"19200","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2015-10-09","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"PALEOCEANOGRAPHY","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/paleoceanography","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-ocean-19200.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":1819,"earliestYearCE":131,"entryId":"noaa-ocean-19200","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"US National Science Foundation","fundingGrant":"OCE-1203892"}],"investigators":"Tierney, J.E.; Ummenhofer, C.C.; deMenocal, P.B.","mostRecentYearBP":-50,"mostRecentYearCE":2000,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/19200","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March-May \"long rains\" season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September-November \"short rains\" season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.","author":{"name":"Jessica E. Tierney, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, and Peter B. deMenocal"},"citation":"Jessica E. Tierney, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, and Peter B. deMenocal. 2015. Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa. Science Advances, 1(9), e1500682. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500682","edition":"e1500682","identifier":{"id":"10.1126/sciadv.1500682","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500682"},"issue":"9","journal":"Science Advances","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2015,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa","type":"publication","volume":"1"}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"55758","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["11.955","44.3"],"type":"POINT"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"44.3","maxElevationMeters":"-869","minElevationMeters":"-869","northernmostLatitude":"11.955","southernmostLatitude":"11.955","westernmostLongitude":"44.3"}},"locationName":"Ocean>Indian Ocean>Arabian Sea","mappable":"Y","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"29678","coreLengthMeters":0,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>paleocean>reconstruction","earth science>paleoclimate>paleocean>biomarkers","earth science>paleoclimate>paleocean>carbon isotopes"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tierney2015b/tierney2015bc1.txt","linkText":"Gulf of Aden Core P178-15 BC1 Leaf Wax Isotope,TEX86, and SST Data ","urlDescription":"Data File","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":"median calibrated ssts from tex86; 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