{"NOAAStudyId":"10437","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2010-04-02","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-10437.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":950,"earliestYearCE":1000,"entryId":"noaa-recon-10437","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"Swiss National Science Foundation","fundingGrant":"NCCR-Climate"},{"fundingAgency":"European Union","fundingGrant":"Carbo-Extreme 226701"},{"fundingAgency":"Project Millennium ","fundingGrant":"017008"}],"investigators":"Frank, D.C.; Esper, J.; Raible, C.C.; Büntgen, U.; Trouet, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Joos, F.","mostRecentYearBP":-45,"mostRecentYearCE":1995,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/10437","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage \nof the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are \ntemperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive \nfeedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. \nOwing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual \nto the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, \nwarming of the climate system causes a net release of CO2 \ninto the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming.  \nBut the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global \ncarbon cycle (termed gamma), and thus of its positive feedback \nstrength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties \nin global warming projections.  Here we quantify the median \ngamma as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C warming, with a likely range \nof 1.7 - 21.4 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C. Sensitivity experiments \nexclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change \non these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a \nprobabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature \nreconstructions and pre-industrial CO2 data from three ice cores, \nprovide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant \nmulti-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble \nof >200,000 members, quantification of gamma is not only improved, \nbut also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark \nfor future model simulations.  Although uncertainties do not \nat present allow exclusion of gamma calculated from any of ten \ncoupled carbon-climate models, we find that gamma is about twice \nas likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile \nof their range.  Our results are incompatibly lower (P,0.05) \nthan recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of 40 p.p.m.v. \nCO2 per °C, and correspondingly suggest 80% less potential \namplification of ongoing global warming. \n","author":null,"citation":"Frank, D.C., J. Esper, C.C. Raible, U. Büntgen, V. Trouet, \nB. Stocker, and F. Joos.  2010. \nEnsemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle \nsensitivity to climate.  \nNature, Vol. 463, pp.527-532, 28 January 2010. \ndoi:10.1038/nature08769","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1038/nature08769","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08769"},"issue":null,"journal":"Nature","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2010,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle  sensitivity to climate","type":"publication","volume":null}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Air Temperature Reconstruction","carbon cycle","sensitivity"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"34252","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["0","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"0","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Northern 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Reconstructions were recalibrated to mitigate \nbiases in the choice of the instrumental target, calibration period, \nand methods which may not adequately preserve the full amplitude \nof temperature variability.  521 different members were derived \nand used to define the amplitude of temperature variability. \nReconstructions of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Antarctic \nice cores were combined and variability smoothed. The temperature\nand CO2 reconstructions were combined to constrain the climate \nsensitivity of the global carbon cycle.\n\nTemperature reconstructions are provided in Deg. C w.r.t 1971-2000, \nwith the column header indicating the large-scale reconstruction, \nthe first year of calibration, and the last year of calibration.  \nThe CO2 data are provided in ppmv. See publication for details.\n\n\n","version":"1.0","xmlId":"9101"}