{"NOAAStudyId":"12035","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2010-04-01","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-12035.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":1450,"earliestYearCE":500,"entryId":"noaa-recon-12035","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"US National Science Foundation","fundingGrant":"ATM-0542356, EAR-0519118, OCE-0402746"}],"investigators":"Mann, M.E.; Woodruff, J.D.; Donnelly, J.P.; Zhang, Z.","mostRecentYearBP":-56,"mostRecentYearCE":2006,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12035","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, \r\nreached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the \r\nhistorical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier \r\ndecades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality \r\nand significance of the recent rise.  Here we place recent activity in \r\na longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical \r\ncyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based \r\non a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, \r\nwhile the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model \r\nof Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions \r\nof past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of \r\na peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times\r\n(around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. \r\nThe statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals \r\nor even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, \r\nresults from the reinforcing effects of La-Nina-like climate conditions \r\nand relative tropical Atlantic warmth.\r\n\r\n\r\n","author":null,"citation":"Mann, M.E., J.D. Woodruff, J.P. Donnelly, and Z. Zhang. 2009. \r\nAtlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years.\r\nNature, Vol. 460, pp. 880-885, 13 August 2009. \r\ndoi:10.1038/nature08219\r\n","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1038/nature08219","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08219"},"issue":null,"journal":"Nature","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2009,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years","type":"publication","volume":null}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"52359","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["-60","70","-84","20"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"20","maxElevationMeters":"0","minElevationMeters":"0","northernmostLatitude":"70","southernmostLatitude":"-60","westernmostLongitude":"-84"}},"locationName":"Ocean>Atlantic 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Metadata","variables":[]}],"dataTableName":"Mann2009","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":500,"earliestYearBP":1450,"earliestYearCE":500,"mostRecentYear":2006,"mostRecentYearBP":-56,"mostRecentYearCE":2006,"species":[],"timeUnit":"AD"}],"siteName":"Atlantic Ocean"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions for the Past 1500 Years","studyNotes":"Supplemental Information for Mann et al (2009) Nature  \n\nHistorical Tropical Cyclone (TC) counts\nTC counts [Year | Annual | Decadal Smoothed| Multidecadal Smoothed]\n\nStandard case [Mann et al '07 adjustments](1870-2006), file TC.dat\nAlternative case [Landsea '07 adjustments](1870-2006), file TCLandsea.dat\n\n \nAnnual Instrumental Climate Series Used to Train Statistical Model\nSST Products [Year | Blended | HadISST_ | Kaplan | NOAA ERSST] \n\nMDR ASO SST (1870-2006) (anomalies relative to 1870-2006 mean), file mdr.dat\n\nNino3  DJF (1870-2006, where year is 'D' in DJF) (anomalies relative to \n1870-2006 mean), file nino3.dat\n\nNAO Series [Year | Index Value (CRU NAO data)] NAO DJFM (1870-2006, \nwhere year is 'D' in DJFM) (anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean), file nao.dat\n\n\nDecadally-Resolved Proxy Reconstructions Used in Statistical Model TC Predictions  \n(anomalies relative to same base periods as above)\n\nProxy Reconstruction [Year | Reconstructed Value | -2 sigma limit | +2 sigma limit]\nMDR (AD 850-1850) [from ref. 17 of article, reconstruction was trained on modern \nHadCRU SST data], file mdrrecon.dat\n\nNino3 (AD 850-1850) [from ref. 17 of article, reconstruction  was trained on modern \nHadCRU SST data], file ninorecon.dat\n\nNAO (AD 1500-1850) [from ref. 18 of article, Luterbacher proxy/historical winter \nNAO reconstruction], file naorecon.dat\n\nCorresponding Instrumental Series [Year | HadCRU MDR| HadCRU Nino3 | Luterbacher+CRU NAO]\nDecadal Instrumental Series shown in Fig 3 of paper [from  ref.s 17 and 18 of article] \n(1851-2006), file instrdec.dat\n\n\nStatistical Model Predictions of TC Past Activity \nProxy-Driven Predictions [Year | Predictions ]\nStandard case (uses Mann et al ’07 adjustment of  historical TC series) (AD 500-1850), \nfile TCStatModelRecon.dat\n\nAlternative Case (uses Landsea ‘07 adjustment of  historical TC series) (AD 500-1850), \nfile TCStatModelReconLandsea.dat\n\nTraining Interval Fit [Year | Annual | Decadal Smoothed | Multidecadal Smoothed]\nStandard case (uses Mann et al ’07 adjustment of  historical TC series) (1870-2006),\nfile TCStatModel.dat\n\nAlternative case (uses Landsea ‘07 adjustment of  historical TC series)  (1870-2006),\nfile TCStatModelLandsea.dat\n\n\n\nRaw Individual Overwash Sediment Deposit Chronologies\nEvent Chronologies [ best estimate date | -1 sigma age limit | +1 sigma age limit]\n\nMattapoisett Marsh, MA (ref. 15 of article), file MAmatta.dat\nSuccotash Marsh, RI (ref. 14 of article), file RIsucc.dat\nAlder Island, NY  (ref. 9 of article), file NYAlder.dat\nBrigantine, NJ (ref. 13 of article), file NJBrig.dat\nWhale Beach, NJ (ref. 12 of article), file NJWhale.dat\nSingleton Swash, SC (ref. 8 of article; \"oyster bed dates\" AD 169, 652, 1283 \nnot used-see article), file SCSingleton.dat\nWestern Lake, FL (ref. 11 of article), file FLWestern.dat\nLaguna Playa Grande Lake, Vieques, PR (ref.s 6,9,10 of article), file PRVieques.dat\n \n\nRegionally Composited Sediment Chronologies\nEvent Chronologies [ best estimate date | -1 sigma age limit | +1 sigma age limit]\n\nNew England U.S. Coast, file NewEng.dat\nMid Atlantic U.S. Coast, file MidAtl.dat\nSoutheast U.S. Coast, file Southeast.dat\nGulf U.S. Coast, file Gulf.dat\nCaribbean, file Caribbean.dat\n \n\nSediment-Based Basin-Wide Landfalling Hurricane Series and Jacknife Surrogates \n(see \"Methods\" for details)\n\nSeries [Year | Value | Value w/out post 1700 Vieques | j.k. surr1|j.k. surr2| \nj.k. surr3 | j.k.surr4| j.k. surr5 ]\n\nStandard case (chronologies normalized, variable sensitivity assumed \namong sites)(AD 500-1991), file TCoverwash.dat\n\nAlternative case (chronologies not normalized) (AD 500-1991), \nfile TCoverwashUnNorm.dat\n\nAlternative case (uniform assumed sensitivity among sites) (AD 500-1991), \nfile TCoverwashUniformPeriod.dat\n\nAlternative case (uniform  weights on sites) (AD 500-1991), \nfile TCoverwashUniformWeights.dat\n\n \n\nMatlab© Codes for Performing the Analyses Described in the Article\n\nDriver for overall analysis, file PaleoTC.m\n\nCode to fit Poisson regression model and apply to proxy reconstructions to yield \nlong-term TC reconstruction and associated standard errors, file StatModelPaleoTC.m\n\nCode to compute ensemble of  basin-wide landfalling hurricane series from sediment \nchronologies and their estimated age model uncertainties, file MakeProxMC.m\n\nSame as \"MakeProxMC\" but without New England records, file MakeProxMCNoNE.m\nSame as \"MakeProxMC\" but without Mid-Atlantic records, file MakeProxMCNoMidAtl.m\nSame as \"MakeProxMC\" but without Southeast U.S. record, file MakeProxMCNoSC.m\nSame as \"MakeProxMC\" but without Gulf Coast record, file MakeProxMCNoGulf.m\nSame as \"MakeProxMC\" but without Puerto Rico record, file MakeProxMCNoPR.m\nSame as \"MakeproxMC\" but without Puerto record after AD 1700, file MakeProxMCNoPRRecent.m\n\nCode to compute Gaussian random deviates used by \"StatModelPaleoTC.m\", file gasdev.m\n\n\n\nLowpass filtering codes used in various routines from Mann GRL '08 \n\nNote that the access to ©Matlab ‘signal’ toolkit is required\n\nLowpass filter routine to approximately implement min norm/min slope/min roughness \nboundary constraints as described in manuscript, file lowpass.m\n\nLowpass filter routine to implement 'mean padded' boundary constraints \nas described in manuscript, file lowpassmeanpad.m\n\nLowpass filter routine to implement 'adaptive' boundary constraints as described \nin manuscript (minor errors fixed 9/2/08: (i) upper limit error bound too low; \n(ii) w3 could be chosen such that weights don’t add to unity; under most \ncircumstances - including the analyses in the manuscript - these errors do not \ninfluence results obtained, but they could under some circumstances), \nfile lowpassadaptive.m\n\nLowpass filter routine used for lower boundary constraint by 'lowpassadaptive', \nfile lowpassmin.m","version":"1.0","xmlId":"10137"}