{"NOAAStudyId":"14749","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2013-07-11","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-14749.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":950,"earliestYearCE":1000,"entryId":"noaa-recon-14749","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"US NOAA","fundingGrant":null},{"fundingAgency":"US Department of Energy","fundingGrant":null},{"fundingAgency":"US National  Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)","fundingGrant":null}],"investigators":"Hegerl, G.C.; Crowley, T.J.; Hyde, W.T.; Frame, D.J.","mostRecentYearBP":-51,"mostRecentYearCE":2001,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/14749","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K. A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K. Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.","author":null,"citation":"Gabriele C. Hegerl, Thomas J. Crowley, William T. Hyde, and David J. Frame. 2006. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature, Vol. 440, No. 7087, pp. 1029-1032, 20 April 2006.\r\nDOI: 10.1038/nature04679","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1038/nature04679","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature04679"},"issue":null,"journal":"Nature","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2006,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries","type":"publication","volume":null}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["sensitivity","temperature","Air Temperature Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"52563","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["30","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"30","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Northern Hemisphere","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"24855","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>air temperature"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hegerl2006/hegerl2006nh-temp.txt","linkText":"hegerl2006nh-temp.txt","urlDescription":"Original Data and Full Metadata","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":"annual","cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"97.5th percentile","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":"percentile","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":"annual","cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"2.5th percentile","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":"percentile","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":"annual","cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"}]}],"dataTableName":"Hegerl2006CHblend","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":1505,"earliestYearBP":445,"earliestYearCE":1505,"mostRecentYear":1960,"mostRecentYearBP":-10,"mostRecentYearCE":1960,"species":[],"timeUnit":"AD"},{"NOAADataTableId":"24856","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>air temperature"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hegerl2006/hegerl2006forcing.txt","linkText":"hegerl2006forcing.txt","urlDescription":"Original Data and Full Metadata","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":"volc0-30S","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"volc30-90S","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>greenhouse gas forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>solar irradiance"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"tropospheric aerosols","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>anthropogenic aerosol forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"volc30-90N","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"volc0-30N","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"}]}],"dataTableName":"Hegerl2006forcing","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":1000,"earliestYearBP":950,"earliestYearCE":1000,"mostRecentYear":2001,"mostRecentYearBP":-51,"mostRecentYearCE":2001,"species":[],"timeUnit":"AD"}],"siteName":"Northern Hemisphere Extratropics"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Northern Hemisphere 700 Year Temperature Reconstruction","studyNotes":"30-90°N annual mean temperature reconstruction (CH-blend), \nused with large-ensemble energy balance modelling to simulate the temperature response \nto past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing, in order to determine which climate \nsensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions.\nThe data include the CH-blend reconstruction and 2.5% and 97.5% uncertainty ranges. \nThe uncertainty ranges reflect both uncertainty in the amplitude of the reconstruction, \nand sampling uncertainty combined. \nForcing inputs also included in file hegerl2006forcing.txt\n\nSupplementary Table 1 archived here, and its heading, were replaced on 5 February 2007. \nThis is a corrected version of the previous Table S1, in which only the scaling uncertainty \nwas included; in the corrected Table S1, scaling and sampling uncertainties are also included. 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