{"NOAAStudyId":"15535","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2013-11-18","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-15535.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":4189,"earliestYearCE":-2239,"entryId":"noaa-recon-15535","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)","fundingGrant":"KAKENHI 23710020, 25740007"}],"investigators":"Kobashi, T.; Goto-Azuma, K.; Box, J.E.; Gao, C.-C.; Nakaegawa, T.","mostRecentYearBP":-50,"mostRecentYearCE":2000,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/15535","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"Precise understanding of Greenland temperature variability is important in two ways. First, Greenland ice sheet melting associated with rising temperature is a major global sea level forcing, potentially affecting large populations in coming centuries. Second, Greenland temperatures are highly affected by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). In our earlier study, we found that Greenland temperature deviated negatively (positively) from northern hemispheric (NH) temperature trend during stronger (weaker) solar activity owing to changes in atmospheric/oceanic changes (e.g. NAO/AO) over the past 800 yr (Kobashi et al., 2013). Therefore, a precise Greenland temperature record can provide important constraints on the past atmospheric/oceanic circulation in the region and beyond. Here, we investigated Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 yr reconstructed from argon and nitrogen isotopes from trapped air in a GISP2 ice core, using a one-dimensional energy balance model with orbital, solar, volcanic, greenhouse gas, and aerosol forcings. The modelled northern Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature exhibits a cooling trend over the past 4000 yr as observed for the reconstructed Greenland temperature through decreasing annual average insolation. With consideration of the negative influence of solar variability, the modelled and observed Greenland temperatures agree with correlation coefficients of r = 0.34-0.36 (p = 0.1-0.04) in 21 yr running means (RMs) and r = 0.38-0.45 (p = 0.1-0.05) on a centennial timescale (101 yr RMs). Thus, the model can explain 14 to 20% of variance of the observed Greenland temperature in multidecadal to centennial timescales with a 90-96% confidence interval, suggesting that a weak but persistent negative solar influence on Greenland temperature continued over the past 4000 yr. Then, we estimated the distribution of multidecadal NH and northern high-latitude temperatures over the past 4000 yr constrained by the climate model and Greenland temperatures. Estimated northern NH temperature and NH average temperature from the model and the Greenland temperature agree with published multi-proxy temperature records with r = 0.35-0.60 in a 92-99% confidence interval over the past 2000 yr. We found that greenhouse gases played two important roles over the past 4000 yr for the rapid warming during the 20th century and slightly cooler temperature during the early period of the past 4000 yr. Lastly, our analysis indicated that the current average temperature (1990-2010) or higher temperatures occurred at a frequency of 1.3 times per 1000 yr for northern high latitudes and 0.36 times per 4000 yr for NH temperatures, respectively, indicating that the current multidecadal NH temperature (1990-2010) is more likely unprecedented than not (p = 0.36) for the past 4000 yr.","author":{"name":"T. Kobashi, K. Goto-Azuma, J.E. Box, C.-C. Gao, and T. Nakaegawa"},"citation":"T. Kobashi, K. Goto-Azuma, J.E. Box, C.-C. Gao, and T. Nakaegawa. 2013. Causes of Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 yr: implications for northern hemispheric temperature changes. Climate of the Past, 9(5), 2299-2317. doi: 10.5194/cp-9-2299-2013","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.5194/cp-9-2299-2013","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2299-2013"},"issue":"5","journal":"Climate of the Past","pages":"2299-2317","pubRank":"1","pubYear":2013,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Causes of Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 yr: implications for northern hemispheric temperature changes","type":"publication","volume":"9"}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Arctic","Arctic Oscillation (AO)","North Atlantic Oscillation","Air Temperature Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"34252","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["0","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"0","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Northern Hemisphere","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"25500","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>air temperature"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/kobashi2013b/kobashi2013nh.txt","linkText":"kobashi2013nh.txt","urlDescription":"Original Data and Full Metadata","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>greenhouse gas forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>solar irradiance"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"51 year running means","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"smoothed","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"51 year running means","cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>anthropogenic aerosol forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"raw","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE FORCING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"watt per square meter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>forcing variable>volcanic forcing"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern hemisphere","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>isotope ratio>delta 15N excess","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern hemisphere","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":"one standard deviation lower bound","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>isotope ratio>delta 15N excess","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern hemisphere","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":"one standard deviation upper bound","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>isotope ratio>delta 15N excess","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern high latitudes","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>isotope ratio>delta 15N excess","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern high latitudes","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":"one standard deviation lower bound","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>isotope ratio>delta 15N excess","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern high latitudes","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|ICE CORES","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":"one standard deviation upper bound","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>isotope ratio>delta 15N excess","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern hemisphere","cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"northern high latitudes","cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"}]},{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>air temperature"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/kobashi2013b/kobashi2013nh.xlsx","linkText":"kobashi2013nh.xlsx","urlDescription":"Original Data and Full Metadata","variables":[]}],"dataTableName":"Kobashi2013NHtemp","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":-2239,"earliestYearBP":4189,"earliestYearCE":-2239,"mostRecentYear":2000,"mostRecentYearBP":-50,"mostRecentYearCE":2000,"species":[],"timeUnit":"AD"}],"siteName":"Northern Hemisphere"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Northern Hemisphere 4000 Year Temperature Reconstructions","studyNotes":"Northern Hemisphere (NH) and northern high latitude (NHL) temperature anomalies (C) over the past 4000 years. \nA one dimensional energy balance model was applied to investigate Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 years \n with reconstructed climate forcing. North Hemispheric average temperature and northern high latitude temperature over \nthe past 4000 years were also reconstructed, constrained by the model and Greenland temperature. Reconstructed climate \nforcing (greenhouse gas, solar, volcanic, aerosol) are included in the dataset as well as the model outputs.","version":"1.0","xmlId":"13338"}