{"NOAAStudyId":"18795","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2015-10-01","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-18795.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":265,"earliestYearCE":1685,"entryId":"noaa-recon-18795","funding":[],"investigators":"Ho, M.; Kiem, A.S.; Verdon-Kidd, D.C.","mostRecentYearBP":-31,"mostRecentYearCE":1981,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/18795","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"Estimates of hydrological risk are crucial to enable adequate planning and preparation for extreme events. However, the accurate estimation of hydrological risk is hampered by relatively short instrumental records in many parts of the world. Information derived from climate-sensitive paleoclimate proxies provide an opportunity to resolve hydroclimatic variability, but many regions, such as Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), currently lack the suitable in situ proxies necessary to do this. Here, new MDB rainfall reconstructions are presented based on a novel method using paleoclimate rainfall proxies in the Australasian region spanning from 749 BCE to 1980 CE. Our results emphasize the need to develop additional reconstructions and, with the companion paper, demonstrate how this information can be used to benefit water resource management. This study shows that prior to the 20th century both dry and wet epochs have persisted for longer periods than observed in the instrumental record - with the probability of both dry and wet periods exceeding a decade at least 10 times more likely prior to 1883 than suggested by the instrumental records. Some reconstructed rainfalls exceeded the instrumental range (i.e. drier dry epochs and wetter wet spells) despite a systematic underestimation of extremes due to a combination of proxy quality and model bias. Importantly, the results demonstrate that the instrumental record does not cover the full range of hydroclimatic variability possible in the MDB. Therefore hydroclimatic risk assessments based on the instrumental record likely underestimate, or at least misinterpret, the frequency, duration and magnitude of wet and dry epochs.","author":{"name":"Michelle Ho, Anthony S. Kiem, Danielle C. Verdon‐Kidd"},"citation":"Michelle Ho, Anthony S. Kiem, Danielle C. Verdon‐Kidd. 2015. A paleoclimate rainfall reconstruction in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia: 2. Assessing hydroclimatic risk using paleoclimate records of wet and dry epochs. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2015WR017059","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1002/2015WR017059","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017059"},"issue":null,"journal":"Water Resources Research","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2015,"reportNumber":null,"title":"A paleoclimate rainfall reconstruction in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia: 2. Assessing hydroclimatic risk using paleoclimate records of wet and dry epochs","type":"publication","volume":null}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Precipitation Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"56527","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["-35.5","144.95"],"type":"POINT"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"144.95","maxElevationMeters":"93","minElevationMeters":"93","northernmostLatitude":"-35.5","southernmostLatitude":"-35.5","westernmostLongitude":"144.95"}},"locationName":"Continent>Australia/New Zealand>Australia>New South Wales","mappable":"Y","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"29214","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>precipitation"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/ho2015/","linkText":"Upper Murray Stochastic Rainfall Reconstructions","urlDescription":"Data Folder","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":"annual","cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"millimeter","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate rate>precipitation"}]}],"dataTableName":"Murray2015precip","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":1685,"earliestYearBP":265,"earliestYearCE":1685,"mostRecentYear":1981,"mostRecentYearBP":-31,"mostRecentYearCE":1981,"species":[],"timeUnit":"AD"}],"siteName":"Deniliquin Post Office"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Upper Murray, Australia, 300 Year Stochastic Rainfall Reconstructions","studyNotes":"Stochastic reconstruction of upper Murray rainfall using paleoclimate rainfall proxies of Queensland corals (see Lough, 2011, Paleoceanography), Lake Tay tree-rings (see Cullen and Grierson, 2009, Climate Dynamics), and moisture sensitive speleothem record from Wombeyan Caves (see McDonald, 2005, University of Newcastle thesis).  Upper Murray rainfall reconstruction developed using an AR1 Monte Carlo model of rainfall at the Wombeyan Caves and a reduced space objective analysis to model upper Murray rainfall.","version":"1.0","xmlId":"16517"}