{"NOAAStudyId":"18835","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2015-06-10","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-18835.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":168,"earliestYearCE":1782,"entryId":"noaa-recon-18835","funding":[],"investigators":"Crowley, T.J.; Obrochta, S.P.; Liu, J.","mostRecentYearBP":-34,"mostRecentYearCE":1984,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/18835","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"Stable global temperatures of the last 10-15 years have been a topic of considerable discussion. A new proxy extension of the global temperature record enables better placement of this feature in a longer historical perspective. The fixed-grid composite covers the interval 1801-1984, with an extension to 1782, and anchors the global temperature record in the last major cold interval of the Little Ice Age, when carbon dioxide concentration was at preanthropogenic levels. Except for greater and longer cooling (approximately twice the length of Pinatubo) associated with the Tambora eruption, the proxy agrees with the most widely cited previous assessment of global temperature over this interval, lending more confidence to a centennial extension of the global temperature record. The proxy correlation is as high as 0.83 for the interval 1907-1984 (df = 8, p = 0.001), with the 21st century 1.0°C ± 0.2°C warmer than the nonvolcanic base state. This remarkable linearity requires a clear theoretical understanding as to how an exceedingly complex system can, on the global average, behave in such a simple way. Removal of the linear radiatively forced component from the global temperature record yields an estimate of natural variability for the last 230 years and indicates no unusual natural variability during the recent 10-15 years. Based on the estimate of unforced variability over the last 170 years, there is about a 40% chance of continued \"natural cooling\" over the next few years, with about a 10% chance of cooling persisting into the next decade.","author":{"name":"Thomas J. Crowley, Stephen P. Obrochta, Junhua Liu"},"citation":"Thomas J. Crowley, Stephen P. Obrochta, Junhua Liu. 2014. Recent global temperature \"plateau\" in the context of a new proxy reconstruction. Earth's Future, 2(5), 281-294. doi: 10.1002/2013EF000216","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1002/2013EF000216","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000216"},"issue":"5","journal":"Earth's Future","pages":"281-294","pubRank":"1","pubYear":2014,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Recent global temperature \"plateau\" in the context of a new proxy reconstruction","type":"publication","volume":"2"}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Air Temperature Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"22723","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["-90","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"-90","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Global","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"29234","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>air temperature"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/crowley2014/","linkText":"Auxiliary Tables and Data for Crowley et al. 2014","urlDescription":"Data Folder","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"\"the 30N-90N, northern hemisphere composite\"","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the untuned 30S-30N tropical fixed grid 1801-1894 composite","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the ENSO-tuned 30S-30N tropical fixed grid 1801-1894 composite","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the untuned 30S-30N tropical 1782-extended composite","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the ENSO-tuned 30S-30N tropical 1782-extended composite","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the 30S-90S southern hemisphere composite","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"\"the zonally-weighted (by latitudinal area) global average using \"\"30S-30N ext comp enso\"\"\"","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the fixed grid 1894-1984 mixed proxy/instrument composite","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":"reconstruction material>multiple proxies","cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the composite of 3 instrumental records HadCru NOAA and NASA","cvDataType":"INSTRUMENTAL","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the HadCRUT3 zonal composite for 30N-90N courtesy of P. Jones","cvDataType":"INSTRUMENTAL","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the HadCRUT3 zonal composite for 30S-30N courtesy of P. Jones.","cvDataType":"INSTRUMENTAL","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"the HadCRUT3 zonal composite for 30S-90S courtesy of P. 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