{"NOAAStudyId":"19119","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2015-07-29","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-19119.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":1950,"earliestYearCE":0,"entryId":"noaa-recon-19119","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate Applications Research (CICAR)","fundingGrant":"NA03OAR4320179, NA08OAR4320754"}],"investigators":"Cook, E.R.; Seager, R.; Heim, R.R.; Vose, R.S.; Herweijer, C.; Woodhouse, C.A.","mostRecentYearBP":-55,"mostRecentYearCE":2005,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/19119","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"IPCC Assessment Report 4 model projections suggest that the subtropical dry zones of the world will both dry and expand poleward in the future due to greenhouse warming. The US Southwest is particularly vulnerable in this regard and model projections indicate a progressive drying there out to the end of the 21st century. At the same time, the USA has been in a state of drought over much of the West for about 10 years now. While severe, this turn of the century drought has not yet clearly exceeded the severity of two exceptional droughts in the 20th century. So while the coincidence between the turn of the century drought and projected drying in the Southwest is cause for concern, it is premature to claim that the model projections are correct. At the same time, great new insights into past drought variability over North America have been made through the development of the North American Drought Atlas from tree rings. Analyses of this drought atlas have revealed past megadroughts of unprecedented duration in the West, largely in the Medieval period about 1000 years ago. A vastly improved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA) for North America now under develop- ment reveals these megadroughts in far greater detail. The LBDA indicates the occurrence of the same Medieval megadroughts in the West and similar-scale megadroughts in the agriculturally and commercially important Mississippi Valley. Possible causes of these megadroughts and their implications for the future are discussed.","author":{"name":"Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Heim, R.R., Vose, R.S., Herweijer, C., and Woodhouse, C."},"citation":"Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Heim, R.R., Vose, R.S., Herweijer, C., and Woodhouse, C. 2010. Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term paleoclimate context. Journal of Quaternary Science, 25(1), 48-61. doi: 10.1002/jqs.1303","edition":null,"identifier":{"id":"10.1002/jqs.1303","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1303"},"issue":"1","journal":"Journal of Quaternary Science","pages":"48-61","pubRank":"1","pubYear":2010,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term paleoclimate context","type":"publication","volume":"25"}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Palmer Drought Index Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"56559","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["9","72","-170","-50"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"-50","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"72","southernmostLatitude":"9","westernmostLongitude":"-170"}},"locationName":"Continent>North America","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"29558","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>precipitation"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/drought/LBDA2010/LBDA_PMDI_Instrumental_data.txt","linkText":"Instrumental PMDI data used for calibration/verification","urlDescription":"Text File","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"year Common Era","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"INSTRUMENTAL","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"}]},{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>precipitation"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/drought/LBDA2010/LBDA_PMDI_Instrumental_metadata.txt","linkText":"Instrumental PMDI metadata - one line per grid point data set","urlDescription":"Text File","variables":[]},{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>precipitation"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/drought/LBDA2010/LBDA_PMDI_JJA_Recons_cal:ver_stats.txt","linkText":"Reconstructed PMDI calibration/verification statistics","urlDescription":"Text File","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":"gridpoint number","cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":null,"cvWhat":"sampling metadata>sample identification"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree north","cvWhat":"sampling metadata>latitude"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree east","cvWhat":"sampling metadata>longitude"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":"verification root mean square error","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":"calibration coefficient of determination","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":"verification coefficient of determination","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":"calibration leave-one-out cross-validation reduction of error","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":"verification coefficient of efficiency","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|TREE RING","cvDetail":null,"cvError":"verification reduction of error","cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"dimensionless","cvWhat":"earth system variable>hydroclimatic variable>hydroclimate index>Palmer Modified Drought Index"}]},{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>precipitation"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/drought/LBDA2010/LBDA_PMDI_JJA_Recons.txt","linkText":"Reconstructed PMDI - 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