{"NOAAStudyId":"21210","contactInfo":{"address":"325 Broadway, E/NE31","city":"Boulder","constraints":"Please cite original publication, online resource, dataset and publication DOIs (where available), and date accessed when using downloaded data. If there is no publication information, please cite investigator, title, online resource, and date accessed. The appearance of external links associated with a dataset does not constitute endorsement by the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of external Web sites or the information, products or services contained therein. For other than authorized activities, the Department of Commerce/NOAA does not exercise any editorial control over the information you may find at these locations. These links are provided consistent with the stated purpose of this Department of Commerce/NOAA Web site.","country":"USA","dataCenterUrl":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data","email":"paleo@noaa.gov","fax":"303-497-6513","longName":"National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce ","phone":"303-497-6280","postalCode":"80305-3328","shortName":"DOC/NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI","state":"CO","type":"CONTACT INFORMATION"},"contributionDate":"2017-01-03","dataPublisher":"NOAA","dataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS","dataTypeInformation":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/climate-reconstruction","difMetadataLink":"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/metadata/published/paleo/dif/xml/noaa-recon-21210.xml","doi":null,"earliestYearBP":783000,"earliestYearCE":-781050,"entryId":"noaa-recon-21210","funding":[{"fundingAgency":"US National Science Foundation","fundingGrant":"1341311, 1400914"}],"investigators":"Friedrich, T.; Timmermann, A.; Tigchelaar, M.; Timm, O.; Ganopolski, A.","mostRecentYearBP":0,"mostRecentYearCE":1950,"onlineResourceLink":"https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/21210","originalSource":null,"publication":[{"abstract":"Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing - referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S) - is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.","author":{"name":"Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Michelle Tigchelaar, Oliver Elison Timm, Andrey Ganopolski"},"citation":"Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Michelle Tigchelaar, Oliver Elison Timm, Andrey Ganopolski. 2016. Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming. Science Advances, 2(11), e1501923. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501923","edition":"e1501923","identifier":{"id":"10.1126/sciadv.1501923","type":"doi","url":"http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501923"},"issue":"11","journal":"Science Advances","pages":null,"pubRank":"1","pubYear":2016,"reportNumber":null,"title":"Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming","type":"publication","volume":"2"}],"reconstruction":"Y","scienceKeywords":["Air Temperature Reconstruction"],"site":[{"NOAASiteId":"22723","geo":{"geoType":"Feature","geometry":{"coordinates":["-90","90","-180","180"],"type":"POLYGON"},"properties":{"easternmostLongitude":"180","maxElevationMeters":null,"minElevationMeters":null,"northernmostLatitude":"90","southernmostLatitude":"-90","westernmostLongitude":"-180"}},"locationName":"Geographic Region>Global","mappable":"N","paleoData":[{"NOAADataTableId":"31984","coreLengthMeters":null,"dataFile":[{"NOAAKeywords":["earth science>paleoclimate>reconstructions>air temperature"],"fileUrl":"https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/friedrich2016/friedrich2016temp.txt","linkText":"Global 784,000 Year Proxy and Model Temperature Reconstructions","urlDescription":"Formatted Text Data File","variables":[{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|PALEOCEANOGRAPHY","cvDetail":null,"cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"calendar kiloyear before present","cvWhat":"age variable>age"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":null,"cvDataType":"CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTIONS|PALEOCEANOGRAPHY","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"},{"cvAdditionalInfo":"global mean","cvDataType":"PALEOCLIMATIC MODELING","cvDetail":"anomalized","cvError":null,"cvFormat":"Numeric","cvMaterial":null,"cvMethod":null,"cvSeasonality":null,"cvShortName":null,"cvUnit":"degree Celsius","cvWhat":"earth system variable>temperature variable>temperature>surface temperature"}]}],"dataTableName":"Friedrich2016temp","dataTableNotes":null,"earliestYear":783000,"earliestYearBP":783000,"earliestYearCE":-781050,"mostRecentYear":0,"mostRecentYearBP":0,"mostRecentYearCE":1950,"species":[],"timeUnit":"cal yr BP"}],"siteName":"Global"}],"studyCode":null,"studyName":"Global 784,000 Year Proxy and Model Temperature Reconstructions","studyNotes":"Globally-averaged Surface Air Temperature anomaly reconstructed from proxy and model data for the last eight glacial cycles","version":"1.0","xmlId":"19208"}