# Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Service for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program # National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # # NOTE: Please cite Publication, and Online_Resource and date accessed when using these data. # If there is no publication information, please cite Investigators, Title, and Online_Resource and date accessed. # # Online_Resource: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/12915 # Online_Resource: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/gergis2016/readme-gergis2016.txt # # Original_Source_URL: # # Description/Documentation lines begin with # # Data lines have no # # # Archive: Climate Reconstructions # # Parameter_Keywords: air temperature #-------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2016-07-15 #-------------------- # Title # Study_Name: Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium #-------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Gergis, J.; Neukom, R.; Gallant, A.J.E.; Karoly, D.J. #-------------------- # Description_and_Notes # Description: Warm season (September-February) temperature reconstruction ensembles # for the combined HadCRUT3v land and ocean region of Australasia (0S-50S, 110E-180E) covering A.D. 1000-2001. # # Reconstructions provided for two (R2), three (R3) and 28 (R28) temperature proxy networks. # # 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of Australasian temperature given for four statistical methods: # Principal Component Regression (PCR), Composite Plus Scale (CPS), Bayesian Hierarchical Models (LNA), # and Pairwise Comparison (PaiCo) described in Appendix B. # # Data files are as follows: # # 1) Proxies_raw.txt: Raw proxy matrix (i.e. palaeoclimate records listed in Table A1). # 2) Proxies_screened.txt: Screened proxy matrix (i.e. palaeoclimate records listed in Table 1) # 3) Proxies_for_recon.txt: screened, lag adjusted and infilled proxy matrix for individual reconstruction methods # (PCR, CPS, LNA and PaiCo) and the four-method ensemble given in Figure 3. # 4) Aus2k_TT_recon_PCR_ensemble.txt: PCR reconstruction ensemble # 5) Aus2k_TT_recon_CPS_ensemble.txt: CPS reconstruction ensemble # 6) Aus2k_TT_recon_LNA_ensemble.txt: LNA reconstruction ensemble # 7) Aus2k_TT_recon_PaiCo_ensemble.txt: PaiCo reconstruction ensemble # 8) Aus2k_TT_recon_Ensemble_medians.txt: Instrumental HadCRUT3v reconstruction target and ensemble median for PCR, CPS, LNA and PaiCo methods # # Analogous files for the R2 and R3 proxy networks # # NOTE: This data set and the Gergis et al. 2016 JOC paper are updated and revised versions originally submitted as: # Gergis, J., R. Neukom, S.J. Phipps, A.J.E. Gallant, D.J. Karoly, and PAGES Aus2K Project Members. 2012. # Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium. # Journal of Climate e-View Early Online Release, May 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00649.1 # #-------------------- # Publication # Authors: Gergis, J., R. Neukom, A.J.E. Gallant, and D.J. Karoly # Published_Date_or_Year: 2016-08-01 # Published_Title: Australasian temperature reconstructions spanning the last millennium # Journal_Name: Journal of Climate # Volume: 29 # Edition: # Issue: 15 # Pages: 5365-5392 # Report_Number: # DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1 # Online_Resource: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1 # Full_Citation: # Abstract: Multiproxy warm season (September-February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land-ocean region of Australasia (0-50S, 110E-180E) covering 1000-2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the amplitude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985-2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks-R28, R3, and R2). The reconstructed twentieth-century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone using GISS-E2-R. In this climate model, anthropogenic forcing is required to produce the rate and magnitude of post-1950 warming observed in the Australasian region. These paleoclimate results are consistent with other studies that attribute the post-1950 warming in Australian temperature records to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: Australian Research Council # Grant: LP0990151, FF0668679, DP1092945 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP) # Grant: #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) # Grant: PZ00P2_154802 #------------------ # Site_Information # Site_Name: Australasia # Location: Geographic Region>Southern Hemisphere # Country: # Northernmost_Latitude: 0.0 # Southernmost_Latitude: -50.0 # Easternmost_Longitude: 180.0 # Westernmost_Longitude: 110.0 # Elevation: m #------------------ # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Gergis2016temp # Earliest_Year: 1000 # Most_Recent_Year: 2001 # Time_Unit: CE # Core_Length: m # Notes: #------------------ # Chronology_Information # Chronology: # #----------------