Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 3.00P 23549 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: BAONS COURT File of DATED series: A:BARON.TUC CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50 avelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 Critical correlation, 99 onfidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings included in master series N Time span of Master dating series is 1764 to 1992 229 years Continuous time span is 1764 to 1992 229 years Portion with two or more series is 1802 to 1992 191 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 13 *C* *O* Master series 1764 1992 229 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 2274 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 2236 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .488 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .225 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 11 *A* **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: BAONS COURT 10:26 Mon 21 JUN 1999 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Beg End Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=================>. Q 8723 1 1812 1992 181 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. Q 8724 2 1839 1992 154 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=================>. Q 8725 3 1810 1992 183 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. Q 8726 4 1802 1992 191 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. Q 8727 5 1831 1992 162 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=================>. Q 8728 6 1818 1992 175 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. Q 8729 7 1808 1992 185 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. Q 8730 8 1806 1992 187 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<===========> . Q 8731 9 1860 1989 130 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. Q 8732 10 1834 1992 159 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. Q 8733 11 1803 1992 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============>. Q 8734 12 1845 1992 148 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<======================>. Q 8735 13 1764 1992 229 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 PART 3: Master Dating Series: BAONS COURT 10:26 Mon PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: BAONS COURT 10:26 Mon 21 JUN 1999 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 Q 8723 1812 1992 .49 .45 .49 .37 .32B .54 .41 2 Q 8724 1839 1992 .45 .50 .63 .49 .26A .25B 3 Q 8725 1810 1992 .50 .50 .56 .51 .41 .40 .38 4 Q 8726 1802 1992 .61 .54 .37 .40 .57 .66 .62 5 Q 8727 1831 1992 .41 .60 .45 .45 .54 .27A 6 Q 8728 1818 1992 .27A .40 .46 .31A .32A .54 .58 7 Q 8729 1808 1992 .52 .41 .34 .46 .48 .43 .23B 8 Q 8730 1806 1992 .54 .60 .60 .67 .69 .68 .65 9 Q 8731 1860 1989 .48 .40 .49 .62 .62 10 Q 8732 1834 1992 .48 .55 .60 .57 .62 .67 11 Q 8733 1803 1992 .52 .50 .60 .64 .66 .60 .45 12 Q 8734 1845 1992 .55 .59 .65 .30A .35 .50 13 Q 8735 1764 1992 .32A .21B .34 .51 .54 .55 .51 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: BAONS COURT 10:26 Mon 21 JUN 1999 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later ( 10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8723 1812 to 1992 181 years Series 1 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1900 1949 -8 -.21 -.13 .38* .03 -.01 -.31 .11 .06 -.01 .03 .32|-.07 -.28 .24 .02 -.13 .15 .08 .02 -.21 -.18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .438) is: Lower 1912 -.017 1911 -.016 1894 -.014 1939 -.010 Higher 1923 .016 1872 .014 1898 .012 1890 .011 1900 to 1949 segment: Lower 1912 -.057 1911 -.053 1939 -.031 1908 -.026 Higher 1923 .075 1947 .035 1902 .034 1926 .034 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1911 1912 4.7 SD [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1912 3.6 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8724 1839 to 1992 154 years Series 2 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1925 1974 0 .17 -.24 .12 -.13 .06 .07 .13 -.11 -.08 .06 .26*-.24 -.15 -.01 .09 -.07 .04 .08 .10 -.20 .14 1943 1992 -6 .16 -.08 .12 -.13 .26* .04 -.17 -.14 -.19 -.05 .25| - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .429) is: Lower 1962 -.021 1927 -.020 1982 -.020 1964 -.019 Higher 1894 .024 1938 .012 1939 .010 1947 .010 1925 to 1974 segment: Lower 1962 -.046 1927 -.046 1964 -.042 1937 -.041 Higher 1938 .059 1939 .040 1947 .040 1972 .026 1943 to 1992 segment: Lower 1962 -.061 1982 -.058 1964 -.056 1966 -.036 Higher 1947 .047 1985 .043 1954 .035 1972 .034 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8725 1810 to 1992 183 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .460) is: Lower 1960 -.011 1938 -.010 1886 -.010 1935 -.009 Higher 1894 .019 1898 .012 1947 .011 1881 .010 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1886 3.1 SD; 1905 3.4 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8726 1802 to 1992 191 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .527) is: Lower 1803 -.012 1898 -.011 1878 -.009 1929 -.009 Higher 1923 .020 1985 .016 1926 .011 1836 .011 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1899 3.1 SD; 1981 3.0 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8727 1831 to 1992 162 years Series 5 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1943 1992 0 -.22 -.23 .03 .12 -.09 -.30 .04 -.01 -.01 -.04 .27* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .426) is: Lower 1923 -.041 1961 -.016 1983 -.015 1840 -.015 Higher 1926 .026 1836 .014 1897 .013 1881 .011 1943 to 1992 segment: Lower 1961 -.048 1983 -.045 1989 -.024 1955 -.019 Higher 1956 .051 1957 .033 1947 .027 1964 .023 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1840 3.0 SD; 1923 4.5 SD; 1989 3.2 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8728 1818 to 1992 175 years Series 6 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1818 1867 0 -.17 -.05 .02 .02 .05 .23 .05 .03 .05 -.05 .27* .15 .17 -.03 .18 .07 -.26 .19 -.11 -.18 -.04 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1875 1924 0 -.09 -.21 -.05 .18 .05 -.06 .01 -.01 -.14 -.16 .31* .14 .03 -.11 -.06 -.32 .04 -.12 .16 .02 .14 1900 1949 0 .15 -.16 -.02 .19 .28 -.27 .03 .29 -.03 -.38 .32* .12 -.17 -.10 .10 -.08 -.04 -.13 .30 -.02 -.08 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .422) is: Lower 1911 -.024 1923 -.017 1938 -.017 1884 -.013 Higher 1926 .025 1872 .023 1956 .017 1894 .011 1818 to 1867 segment: Lower 1865 -.046 1837 -.045 1829 -.041 1823 -.029 Higher 1836 .051 1862 .049 1818 .031 1856 .030 1875 to 1924 segment: Lower 1911 -.085 1884 -.048 1893 -.042 1923 -.041 Higher 1894 .055 1898 .045 1890 .028 1882 .027 1900 to 1949 segment: Lower 1911 -.079 1938 -.053 1923 -.050 1904 -.020 Higher 1926 .116 1939 .033 1947 .030 1903 .025 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1837 3.4 SD; 1943 3.2 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8729 1808 to 1992 185 years Series 7 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1943 1992 -5 -.12 .25 -.01 -.12 -.22 .30* .10 -.13 -.26 -.10 .23| - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .418) is: Lower 1871 -.035 1908 -.015 1890 -.012 1939 -.010 Higher 1923 .026 1926 .023 1872 .018 1961 .013 1943 to 1992 segment: Lower 1983 -.027 1981 -.026 1973 -.026 1944 -.023 Higher 1961 .079 1956 .048 1957 .023 1964 .020 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1908 3.6 SD; 1973 3.2 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8730 1806 to 1992 187 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .631) is: Lower 1813 -.011 1915 -.009 1851 -.008 1875 -.007 Higher 1926 .015 1894 .013 1956 .009 1836 .008 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8731 1860 to 1989 130 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .529) is: Lower 1923 -.022 1937 -.012 1934 -.011 1865 -.009 Higher 1926 .023 1985 .021 1956 .017 1938 .011 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8732 1834 to 1992 159 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .585) is: Lower 1937 -.018 1845 -.011 1979 -.010 1881 -.009 Higher 1923 .021 1956 .018 1985 .017 1894 .011 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1937 3.1 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8733 1803 to 1992 190 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .552) is: Lower 1987 -.019 1875 -.016 1840 -.011 1974 -.009 Higher 1803 .020 1923 .015 1894 .013 1926 .011 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1911 3.0 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8734 1845 to 1992 148 years Series 12 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1900 1949 0 -.10 -.11 .19 .05 .12 .16 -.19 .05 -.17 .08 .30* .02 -.21 .20 -.19 -.31 .23 .10 -.08 -.10 .16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .490) is: Lower 1943 -.044 1926 -.019 1868 -.017 1927 -.013 Higher 1985 .024 1923 .018 1961 .012 1872 .011 1900 to 1949 segment: Lower 1943 -.116 1926 -.042 1927 -.033 1901 -.022 Higher 1923 .082 1911 .029 1934 .027 1918 .026 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1943 -5.0 SD; 1967 3.1 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8735 1764 to 1992 229 years Series 13 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1764 to 1801 -- not matched by another series [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1802 1851 0 -.16 -.10 -.36 .12 -.03 -.06 .17 .08 .21 .01 .32*-.09 -.21 -.04 .09 -.04 .08 .14 -.03 .07 .08 1825 1874 8 -.09 -.18 -.01 .25 .19 .23 .04 .23 .04 -.02 .21|-.33 -.24 -.12 -.06 .03 -.14 .10 .33*-.03 .05 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .439) is: Lower 1851 -.015 1894 -.013 1854 -.011 1889 -.010 Higher 1803 .027 1923 .024 1956 .016 1947 .011 1802 to 1851 segment: Lower 1851 -.054 1810 -.032 1836 -.029 1819 -.023 Higher 1803 .147 1848 .027 1811 .023 1824 .022 1825 to 1874 segment: Lower 1851 -.056 1854 -.042 1836 -.028 1861 -.025 Higher 1848 .039 1862 .034 1856 .026 1871 .019 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1835 3.1 SD; 1836 3.2 SD; 1851 3.1 SD; 1854 3.0 SD; 1878 3.0 SD; 1894 3.1 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: BAONS COURT 10:26 Mon 21 JUN 1999 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 Q 8723 1812 1992 181 7 1 .438 .95 2.14 .422 .843 .181 2.01 .304 -.030 1 2 Q 8724 1839 1992 154 6 2 .429 1.32 2.63 .433 .703 .205 2.08 .378 -.026 2 3 Q 8725 1810 1992 183 7 0 .460 .73 2.34 .407 .845 .213 2.03 .328 -.005 1 4 Q 8726 1802 1992 191 7 0 .527 .64 1.31 .221 .687 .231 2.04 .328 -.014 1 5 Q 8727 1831 1992 162 6 1 .426 1.14 2.75 .459 .744 .209 2.20 .391 .007 1 6 Q 8728 1818 1992 175 7 3 .422 1.05 2.29 .459 .817 .212 2.10 .339 .002 1 7 Q 8729 1808 1992 185 7 1 .418 1.10 3.07 .539 .774 .232 2.04 .408 .019 1 8 Q 8730 1806 1992 187 7 0 .631 .75 2.64 .344 .718 .248 2.01 .299 -.029 2 9 Q 8731 1860 1989 130 5 0 .529 1.49 3.25 .556 .561 .267 2.07 .464 -.021 2 10 Q 8732 1834 1992 159 6 0 .585 1.13 2.35 .400 .805 .180 2.12 .353 .000 1 11 Q 8733 1803 1992 190 7 0 .552 .67 2.00 .402 .819 .251 2.24 .368 .016 1 12 Q 8734 1845 1992 148 6 1 .490 1.29 3.53 .602 .770 .262 2.17 .404 -.022 1 13 Q 8735 1764 1992 229 7 2 .439 .60 2.58 .363 .790 .239 2.37 .341 -.012 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 2274 85 11 .488 .96 3.53 .423 .765 .225 2.37 .358 -.008 - = [ COFECHA BARONCOF ] = - Part of a undergraduate project. Attempted reconstuction of precipitation and temperature analyses.