Caledon Demesne, Northern Ireland - BRIT043 Additional Site Information M.G.L. Baillie and D.M. Brown Detrending Method: Linear regression of any slope Purpose of Collection: Climatology - isotope analysis The samples are located at the Palaeoecology Centre, 42 Fitzwilliam Street, Belfast, BT9 6AX Nothern Ireland. Samples can be examined at this location. Four sections of sample Q8967 plus four other sections of samples Q8968, Q8969, Q8971 and Q8973 have be sent to Gerhart Scheiser in Germany for isotopic analysis. This was part of a European Union funding 2K project. COFECHA output: Program COF 14:04 Mon 19 JUL 1999 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 3.00P 23577 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Caledon File of DATED series: a:caldon.tuc CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50 avelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 Critical correlation, 99 onfidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings included in master series N Time span of Master dating series is 1864 to 1994 131 years Continuous time span is 1864 to 1994 131 years Portion with two or more series is 1865 to 1994 130 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 11 *C* *O* Master series 1864 1994 131 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 1218 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 1217 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .471 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .187 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 4 *A* **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Caledon 14:04 Mon 19 JUL 1999 Page 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Beg End Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. Q8967M 1 1884 1994 111 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. Q 8968 2 1885 1994 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========>. Q 8969 3 1878 1994 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. Q 8970 4 1882 1994 113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==========>. Q 8971 5 1885 1994 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <========>. Q 8972 6 1903 1994 92 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. Q 8973 7 1892 1994 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. Q 8974 8 1893 1994 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=========>. Q 8977 9 1896 1994 99 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. Q 8979 10 1865 1994 130 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<============>. Q 8980 11 1864 1994 131 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Caledon 14:04 Mon 19 JUL 1999 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 Q8967M 1884 1994 .46 .53 .50 .51 2 Q 8968 1885 1994 .42 .54 .57 .62 3 Q 8969 1878 1994 .47 .53 .42 .36 4 Q 8970 1882 1994 .49 .53 .57 .45 5 Q 8971 1885 1994 .59 .49 .62 .55 6 Q 8972 1903 1994 .46 .60 .49 7 Q 8973 1892 1994 .56 .57 .48 .43 8 Q 8974 1893 1994 .42 .48 .55 .31A 9 Q 8977 1896 1994 .45 .46 .38 .29A 10 Q 8979 1865 1994 .21A .22B .55 .62 .55 11 Q 8980 1864 1994 .36 .42 .52 .44 .46 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Caledon 14:04 Mon 19 JUL 1999 Page 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later ( 10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q8967M 1884 to 1994 111 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .521) is: Lower 1966 -.030 1923 -.018 1957 -.016 1918 -.016 Higher 1898 .036 1986 .022 1936 .015 1962 .008 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8968 1885 to 1994 110 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .560) is: Lower 1894 -.033 1973 -.023 1889 -.017 1912 -.015 Higher 1986 .039 1898 .032 1928 .013 1936 .012 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8969 1878 to 1994 117 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .460) is: Lower 1956 -.021 1971 -.020 1973 -.013 1887 -.010 Higher 1986 .033 1885 .033 1934 .020 1944 .016 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8970 1882 to 1994 113 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .498) is: Lower 1914 -.033 1974 -.022 1882 -.022 1949 -.017 Higher 1918 .014 1956 .014 1986 .013 1935 .013 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8971 1885 to 1994 110 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .578) is: Lower 1920 -.019 1986 -.018 1915 -.017 1923 -.014 Higher 1898 .031 1956 .014 1936 .013 1885 .012 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8972 1903 to 1994 92 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .468) is: Lower 1904 -.028 1923 -.025 1984 -.024 1964 -.018 Higher 1956 .031 1934 .023 1936 .019 1986 .018 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1974 3.1 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8973 1892 to 1994 103 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .509) is: Lower 1973 -.024 1948 -.020 1907 -.016 1892 -.012 Higher 1986 .033 1918 .027 1956 .024 1898 .016 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8974 1893 to 1994 102 years Series 8 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1945 1994 0 .15 -.01 .06 .11 -.15 .21 .14 -.17 -.02 -.24 .31* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .382) is: Lower 1982 -.022 1893 -.019 1900 -.018 1987 -.018 Higher 1918 .038 1956 .030 1934 .027 1936 .016 1945 to 1994 segment: Lower 1982 -.050 1987 -.041 1973 -.030 1963 -.026 Higher 1956 .083 1955 .027 1986 .025 1947 .023 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8977 1896 to 1994 99 years Series 9 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1945 1994 0 -.12 .02 .07 -.28 .03 .05 -.17 -.09 .17 -.01 .29* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .371) is: Lower 1975 -.021 1977 -.019 1897 -.018 1962 -.017 Higher 1986 .047 1918 .040 1898 .032 1935 .020 1945 to 1994 segment: Lower 1975 -.041 1977 -.038 1962 -.035 1988 -.024 Higher 1986 .120 1948 .028 1990 .024 1956 .023 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8979 1865 to 1994 130 years Series 10 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1865 1914 0 - - - - - - - - - -.29 .21*-.06 .03 .04 .08 -.15 .03 .06 -.11 .10 .13 1875 1924 -7 -.09 .15 .17 .30* .13 .01 .26 .00 -.12 -.28 .22|-.21 -.15 .01 -.05 -.07 .05 .11 -.06 .22 .23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .399) is: Lower 1865 -.020 1895 -.016 1876 -.015 1993 -.013 Higher 1956 .025 1936 .018 1870 .011 1934 .009 1865 to 1914 segment: Lower 1865 -.047 1876 -.035 1895 -.034 1888 -.030 Higher 1885 .052 1894 .036 1870 .035 1898 .031 1875 to 1924 segment: Lower 1895 -.041 1876 -.038 1888 -.033 1891 -.029 Higher 1885 .049 1894 .037 1878 .027 1898 .026 ========================================================================= ========================================================== Q 8980 1864 to 1994 131 years Series 11 [*] Early part of series cannot be checked from 1864 to 1864 -- not matched by another series [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .437) is: Lower 1876 -.023 1865 -.023 1895 -.014 1898 -.014 Higher 1885 .032 1986 .021 1918 .012 1928 .012 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1876 3.3 SD ========================================================================= ========================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Caledon 14:04 Mon 19 JUL 1999 Page 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 Q8967M 1884 1994 111 4 0 .521 1.59 2.90 .518 .836 .154 1.93 .346 .005 1 2 Q 8968 1885 1994 110 4 0 .560 1.38 2.48 .414 .732 .173 1.89 .310 -.033 1 3 Q 8969 1878 1994 117 4 0 .460 1.23 2.54 .547 .870 .198 1.97 .373 -.052 1 4 Q 8970 1882 1994 113 4 0 .498 .85 2.51 .559 .918 .188 1.94 .308 .005 1 5 Q 8971 1885 1994 110 4 0 .578 1.47 2.96 .623 .911 .144 2.05 .386 -.012 1 6 Q 8972 1903 1994 92 3 0 .468 1.37 2.48 .359 .643 .166 2.23 .432 .010 1 7 Q 8973 1892 1994 103 4 0 .509 1.27 2.60 .437 .744 .195 1.96 .354 -.051 1 8 Q 8974 1893 1994 102 4 1 .382 .85 1.93 .370 .868 .174 1.95 .375 .027 1 9 Q 8977 1896 1994 99 4 1 .371 .81 2.32 .469 .881 .193 1.95 .354 .012 1 10 Q 8979 1865 1994 130 5 2 .399 1.20 3.06 .680 .856 .225 2.30 .420 -.054 1 11 Q 8980 1864 1994 131 5 0 .437 1.44 3.30 .687 .816 .228 1.88 .330 -.075 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 1218 45 4 .471 1.23 3.30 .525 .828 .187 2.30 .362 -.022