Naspey, Bhutan - bt002 Additional Site Information Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, and Dorji Dukpa Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : BT002.CRN Measurement file name : BT002.RWL Date checked : 06SEP11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1454 Ending year : 2003 Principal investigators: Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, and Dorji Dukpa Site name : Naspey Site location : Bhutan Species information : TSDU EAST HIMALAYAN HEMLOCK Latitude : 2740 Longitude : 09044 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.443 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.212 Avg standard deviation : 0.660 Avg autocorrelation : 0.855 Number dated series : 43 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 120 Pct problem segments : 20.20 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Naspey 14:25 Tue 06 Sep 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 NASTD01A 1673 2003 .26B .23B .08B .36 .46 .35B .40 .41B .43 .49 .38 .36 2 NASTD01B 1765 2003 .57 .43 .43 .45 .46 .53 .42 .14B 3 NASTD02A 1652 2003 .40 .54 .54 .55 .62 .55 .52 .49 .48 .59 .60 .35 4 NASTD02B 1629 2003 .42 .37 .35B .35 .41B .51 .58 .52 .48 .46 .52 .51 .35 5 NASTD04A 1775 2003 .23A .35 .27B .30A .32B .29A .49 6 NASTD04B 1684 2003 .32A .28A .22B-.15B .11B .58 .71 .56 .35 .40 .42 7 NASTD06B 1766 2003 .56 .55 .49 .33B .42 .51 .47 .58 8 NASTD07B 1797 2003 .24A .24A .30B .41 .44 .15B .11B 9 NASTD09A 1723 2003 .27B .25B .20B .43 .58 .59 .48 .44 .50 .54 10 NASTD09B 1756 2003 .24B .23B .40 .49 .48 .43 .33 .39 11 NASTD10A 1779 2003 .45 .48 .53 .52 .42 .38 .33 12 NASTD10B 1794 2003 .46 .38 .54 .53 .66 .51 .30A 13 NASTD11A 1751 2003 .43 .47 .45 .45 .37 .50 .56 .36 14 NASTD11B 1746 2003 .29B .41 .44 .23B .37 .54 .59 .62 .39 15 NASTD12A 1787 2003 .48 .31B .31A .43 .44 .30B .17B 16 NASTD13A 1678 2003 .55 .47 .54 .59 .67 .61 .51 .49 .54 .33A .42 17 NASTD13B 1702 2003 .51 .59 .61 .50 .36 .62 .56 .45 .40 .37 18 NASTD13C 1667 2003 .57 .54 .51 .43 .41 .44 .35 .31A .26B .25B .38 .32A 19 NASTD14A 1590 2003 .47 .40 .47 .54 .44 .49 .57 .66 .68 .54 .51 .52 .39 .35 .27B 20 NASTD14B 1665 2003 .48 .43 .43 .44B .34 .40 .51 .54 .57 .53 .40 .39 21 NASTD14C 1601 2003 .48 .47 .62 .51 .38 .46 .61 .69 .72 .60 .50 .49 .39 .28A 22 NASTD15A 1535 2003 .55 .41 .33A .43 .49 .49 .49 .41 .35 .21A .36 .64 .24A .17B .38 .38 .46 23 NASTD15B 1472 2003 .43 .41 .34 .30A .34 .33B .39 .41 .43 .45 .45 .50 .54 .57 .53 .42 .52 .48 .37 .44 24 NASTD15C 1600 2003 .28B .32A .42 .54 .55 .62 .66 .65 .68 .49 .29A .53 .65 .64 25 NASTD16A 1619 2003 .50 .50 .45 .48 .40 .39 .71 .58 .51 .69 .54 .34B .32B .38B 26 NASTD16B 1549 2003 .50 .52 .49 .48 .56 .53 .44 .39 .44 .58 .61 .66 .52 .36 .31A .29A .26B 27 NASTD16C 1475 2003 .32A .30A .33A .51 .59 .58 .47 .43 .52 .48 .44 .63 .63 .59 .23B .28A .57 .64 .55 28 NASTD17A 1633 2003 .40 .52 .55 .58 .53 .52 .47 .47 .46 .39 .51 .63 .62 29 NASTD17B 1454 2003 .34B .31B .43 .12B .17B .40 .40 .35 .32B .48 .42 .51 .62 .48 .42 .34 .34 .50 .50 .50 30 NASTD18A 1729 2002 .32A .38 .47 .47 .31A .29B .24A .36 .47 31 NASTD19A 1726 2003 .06B .18B .42 .46 .27B .30A .60 .59 .27B 32 NASTD19B 1739 2003 .36 .47 .51 .49 .52 .39 .49 .53 .37 33 NASTD20A 1701 2003 .25B .28A .53 .48 .32A .26B .23A .52 .62 .47 34 NASTD20B 1672 2003 .35 .40 .22B .44 .48 .36 .33 .37 .37 .64 .72 .34 35 NASTD21A 1562 2003 .58 .74 .72 .53 .34 .45 .56 .65 .69 .51 .16B .32B .45 .50 .56 .40 36 NASTD21B 1581 2003 .63 .58 .32B .39 .50 .50 .52 .55 .54 .50 .51 .52 .65 .64 .45 37 NASTD21C 1577 2003 .47 .42 .23B .29B .46 .45 .52 .73 .67 .48 .43 .24A .25A .54 .44 38 NASTD21D 1702 2003 .58 .50 .53 .55 .36 .23B .23B .57 .48 .37 39 NASTD21E 1732 2003 .35 .54 .44 .29A .43 .33A .26A .38 .45 40 NASTD22A 1627 2003 .08B .25B .52 .42 .46 .49 .45 .42 .52 .51 .48 .32A .30A 41 NASTD22B 1660 2003 .36 .43 .30A .22B .39 .60 .59 .43 .38 .41 .45 .48 42 NASTD23A 1640 2003 .51 .58 .60 .53 .41 .55 .67 .66 .54 .50 .48 .45 .44 43 NASTD23B 1618 2003 .50 .44 .55 .58 .43 .41 .44 .41 .48 .48 .46 .40 .29A .41 Av segment correlation .38 .34 .36 .36 .42 .49 .47 .41 .43 .47 .42 .42 .49 .48 .46 .44 .42 .46 .45 .39 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Naspey 14:25 Tue 06 Sep 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1950 1975 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 NASTD01A 1673 2003 .35 .38 2 NASTD01B 1765 2003 .17B .33B 3 NASTD02A 1652 2003 .38 .45 4 NASTD02B 1629 2003 .41 .48 5 NASTD04A 1775 2003 .66 .66 6 NASTD04B 1684 2003 .35 .27A 7 NASTD06B 1766 2003 .58 .64 8 NASTD07B 1797 2003 .48 .53 9 NASTD09A 1723 2003 .36 .41 10 NASTD09B 1756 2003 .42 .47 11 NASTD10A 1779 2003 .29B .33A 12 NASTD10B 1794 2003 .46 .45 13 NASTD11A 1751 2003 .23A .31A 14 NASTD11B 1746 2003 .38 .39 15 NASTD12A 1787 2003 .46 .48 16 NASTD13A 1678 2003 .62 .66 17 NASTD13B 1702 2003 .56 .59 18 NASTD13C 1667 2003 .35 .43 19 NASTD14A 1590 2003 .28B .40 20 NASTD14B 1665 2003 .52 .54 21 NASTD14C 1601 2003 .39 .45 22 NASTD15A 1535 2003 .31A .36 23 NASTD15B 1472 2003 .48 .55 24 NASTD15C 1600 2003 .65 .53 25 NASTD16A 1619 2003 .67 .69 26 NASTD16B 1549 2003 .48 .53 27 NASTD16C 1475 2003 .58 .64 28 NASTD17A 1633 2003 .53 .55 29 NASTD17B 1454 2003 .62 .63 30 NASTD18A 1729 2002 .48 .50 31 NASTD19A 1726 2003 .46 .54 32 NASTD19B 1739 2003 .34 .28A 33 NASTD20A 1701 2003 .53 .45 34 NASTD20B 1672 2003 .47 .52 35 NASTD21A 1562 2003 .33A .31A 36 NASTD21B 1581 2003 .52 .56 37 NASTD21C 1577 2003 .38 .44 38 NASTD21D 1702 2003 .29B .33 39 NASTD21E 1732 2003 .26B .28A 40 NASTD22A 1627 2003 .13B .09B 41 NASTD22B 1660 2003 .45 .52 42 NASTD23A 1640 2003 .39 .38 43 NASTD23B 1618 2003 .48 .53 Av segment correlation .43 .46 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Naspey 14:25 Tue 06 Sep 2011 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 NASTD01A 1673 2003 331 14 5 .344 1.26 3.41 .723 .916 .180 2.61 .339 -.019 1 2 NASTD01B 1765 2003 239 10 3 .453 1.40 3.78 .763 .920 .174 2.56 .307 .001 1 3 NASTD02A 1652 2003 352 14 0 .503 .96 3.26 .525 .876 .206 2.70 .364 .010 2 4 NASTD02B 1629 2003 375 15 2 .454 1.07 4.24 .767 .907 .229 2.58 .347 .018 1 5 NASTD04A 1775 2003 229 9 5 .386 1.13 5.01 .774 .875 .209 2.80 .462 -.046 1 6 NASTD04B 1684 2003 320 13 6 .332 .82 4.78 .703 .895 .254 2.58 .383 -.044 1 7 NASTD06B 1766 2003 238 10 1 .496 1.34 3.66 .756 .900 .163 2.58 .294 .008 2 8 NASTD07B 1797 2003 207 9 5 .323 2.03 5.10 1.014 .893 .177 2.59 .372 -.017 2 9 NASTD09A 1723 2003 281 12 3 .429 1.04 3.48 .583 .731 .226 2.51 .294 -.002 1 10 NASTD09B 1756 2003 248 10 2 .381 1.05 5.98 .832 .843 .225 2.85 .336 -.020 1 11 NASTD10A 1779 2003 225 9 2 .417 1.78 5.60 .886 .907 .150 2.80 .432 .010 1 12 NASTD10B 1794 2003 210 9 1 .480 1.86 5.32 .781 .828 .181 2.62 .424 -.044 1 13 NASTD11A 1751 2003 253 10 2 .424 1.64 5.65 1.229 .893 .233 2.60 .334 -.047 5 14 NASTD11B 1746 2003 258 11 2 .425 1.54 5.24 1.055 .904 .198 2.67 .444 -.025 2 15 NASTD12A 1787 2003 217 9 4 .380 1.59 3.70 .844 .887 .227 2.64 .416 -.012 3 16 NASTD13A 1678 2003 326 13 1 .541 1.44 5.59 .622 .808 .185 2.63 .367 -.018 4 17 NASTD13B 1702 2003 302 12 0 .511 1.32 5.72 .701 .846 .176 2.68 .390 -.017 3 18 NASTD13C 1667 2003 337 14 4 .400 1.23 7.24 .759 .838 .196 2.89 .440 -.070 2 19 NASTD14A 1590 2003 414 17 2 .475 1.19 4.04 .721 .896 .203 2.66 .318 -.009 1 20 NASTD14B 1665 2003 339 14 1 .463 .82 4.17 .427 .671 .244 2.80 .444 -.037 3 21 NASTD14C 1601 2003 403 16 1 .541 1.01 2.97 .502 .784 .241 2.51 .263 -.011 1 22 NASTD15A 1535 2003 469 19 5 .386 .90 2.72 .402 .712 .235 2.82 .386 -.003 3 23 NASTD15B 1472 2003 532 22 2 .436 .95 4.42 .731 .928 .251 2.69 .252 -.020 3 24 NASTD15C 1600 2003 404 16 3 .505 .71 4.53 .451 .801 .221 2.59 .293 -.019 3 25 NASTD16A 1619 2003 385 16 3 .495 .88 2.47 .326 .816 .161 2.51 .228 -.015 3 26 NASTD16B 1549 2003 455 19 3 .471 .92 3.63 .478 .829 .193 2.91 .459 -.026 2 27 NASTD16C 1475 2003 529 21 5 .457 1.07 4.33 .622 .877 .208 2.78 .379 -.015 5 28 NASTD17A 1633 2003 371 15 0 .504 .98 4.00 .590 .812 .216 2.69 .297 -.045 3 29 NASTD17B 1454 2003 550 22 5 .394 .71 4.24 .430 .782 .220 2.80 .375 -.040 2 30 NASTD18A 1729 2002 274 11 4 .390 1.40 5.38 .940 .888 .207 2.56 .284 -.014 2 31 NASTD19A 1726 2003 278 11 5 .398 1.18 4.19 .626 .833 .212 2.46 .294 -.027 3 32 NASTD19B 1739 2003 265 11 1 .433 .61 4.39 .434 .703 .230 2.62 .293 -.062 2 33 NASTD20A 1701 2003 303 12 5 .405 1.31 6.71 1.100 .862 .237 3.00 .405 .016 1 34 NASTD20B 1672 2003 332 14 1 .460 1.19 7.04 .966 .857 .210 2.80 .315 -.006 1 35 NASTD21A 1562 2003 442 18 4 .496 .84 4.46 .633 .918 .199 2.80 .360 -.036 2 36 NASTD21B 1581 2003 423 17 1 .521 .70 4.59 .583 .918 .216 2.48 .221 -.031 1 37 NASTD21C 1577 2003 427 17 4 .434 .71 3.38 .512 .910 .243 2.70 .303 -.032 1 38 NASTD21D 1702 2003 302 12 3 .423 .52 3.48 .405 .897 .219 2.76 .291 -.024 2 39 NASTD21E 1732 2003 272 11 5 .400 .57 3.75 .468 .875 .245 2.74 .379 -.050 2 40 NASTD22A 1627 2003 377 15 6 .359 1.14 4.37 .774 .901 .196 2.56 .255 -.022 1 41 NASTD22B 1660 2003 344 14 2 .420 1.17 5.85 .787 .921 .182 2.70 .357 -.002 1 42 NASTD23A 1640 2003 364 15 0 .498 1.02 4.42 .577 .862 .184 2.71 .411 .020 1 43 NASTD23B 1618 2003 386 16 1 .438 1.00 3.86 .698 .910 .260 2.82 .382 .002 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 14588 594 120 .443 1.07 7.24 .660 .855 .212 3.00 .345 -.019