Mandal Hill Monastery, Mongolia - mong026 Additional Site Information Gordon Jacoby, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Brendan Buckley, Nicole Davi Neil Pederson, and Baatarbileg Nachin Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : MONG026.CRN Measurement file name : MONG026.RWL Date checked : 31OCT11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1411 Ending year : 2002 Principal investigators: G. Jacoby R. D'Arrigo B. Buckley N. Davi N. Pederson B. Nachin Site name : Mandal Hill Monastery Site location : Mongolia Species information : LASI SIBERIAN LARCH Latitude : 4649 Longitude : 10007 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.713 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.379 Avg standard deviation : 0.296 Avg autocorrelation : 0.716 Number dated series : 23 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 6 Pct problem segments : 2.16 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Mandal Hill Monastery 15:39 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1474 1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 MU01N 1770 2002 .63 .67 .65 .64 .71 .73 .80 2 MU01S 1772 2002 .69 .73 .77 .77 .78 .86 .79 3 MU02A 1912 2002 .70 4 MU02B 1896 2002 .75 .78 5 MU03 1799 2002 .73 .75 .69 .72 .81 .86 6 MU03B 1784 2002 .68 .70 .67 .74 .87 .90 7 MU04SE 1622 2002 .48 .59 .72 .85 .91 .87 .75 .80 .85 .78 .77 .89 .91 8 MU04NW 1629 2002 .73 .80 .84 .91 .91 .78 .76 .81 .83 .84 .87 .88 9 MU05B 1765 2002 .83 .83 .82 .82 .58 .68 .93 10 MU05A 1706 2002 .63 .89 .87 .85 .82 .68 .64 .80 .86 11 MU06N 1869 2002 .71 .66 .67 12 MU07N 1452 2002 .75 .79 .73 .70 .74 .79 .74 .73 .65 .69 .79 .77 .80 .71 .54 .51 .56 .74 .77 13 MU07W 1433 2002 .53 .76 .81 .80 .79 .82 .82 .78 .75 .75 .80 .82 .83 .82 .69 .69 .58 .54 .75 .66 14 MU08A 1852 2002 .64 .72 .80 15 MU08B 1449 2002 .78 .78 .83 .78 .75 .76 .82 .82 .80 .74 .75 .82 .85 .86 .72 .74 .74 .77 .82 .86 16 MU9W 1689 2002 .82 .82 .77 .71 .70 .68 .59 .72 .86 .88 17 MU10A 1427 2002 .44 .69 .58 .67 .58 .39B .63 .49 .40 .65 .67 .73 .82 .82 .72 .74 .58 .54 .68 .60 18 MU12N 1817 2001 .72 .71 .77 .90 .85 19 MU12S 1817 2001 .74 .73 .59 .66 .83 20 MU14 1614 2002 .69 .69 .77 .80 .84 .86 .77 .65 .70 .65 .64 .74 .75 21 MX01A 1472 1767 .68 .71 .54 .53 .52 .44 .49 .45 .54 .64 .63 .60 22 MX06A 1411 1674 .40 .49 .30B .36B .63 .72 .72 .64 .64 23 MX08A 1645 1867 .59 .57 .60 .77 .71 .55 .32A .23B .28B Av segment correlation .54 .69 .67 .64 .66 .66 .70 .64 .64 .69 .75 .79 .81 .76 .70 .70 .66 .68 .78 .80 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Mandal Hill Monastery 15:39 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1925 1950 1975 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 MU01N 1770 2002 .88 .74 .73 2 MU01S 1772 2002 .72 .74 .73 3 MU02A 1912 2002 .67 .51 .51 4 MU02B 1896 2002 .58 .47 .45 5 MU03 1799 2002 .84 .75 .73 6 MU03B 1784 2002 .89 .86 .86 7 MU04SE 1622 2002 .87 .78 .78 8 MU04NW 1629 2002 .88 .82 .81 9 MU05B 1765 2002 .93 .86 .85 10 MU05A 1706 2002 .84 .74 .73 11 MU06N 1869 2002 .68 .50 .47 12 MU07N 1452 2002 .73 .71 .72 13 MU07W 1433 2002 .68 .78 .76 14 MU08A 1852 2002 .88 .85 .85 15 MU08B 1449 2002 .89 .81 .80 16 MU9W 1689 2002 .87 .84 .84 17 MU10A 1427 2002 .65 .71 .66 18 MU12N 1817 2001 .80 .77 .71 19 MU12S 1817 2001 .83 .77 .74 20 MU14 1614 2002 .73 .72 .67 Av segment correlation .79 .74 .72 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Mandal Hill Monastery 15:39 Mon 31 Oct 2011 Page 10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 MU01N 1770 2002 233 10 0 .713 .60 3.75 .524 .860 .373 2.54 .412 -.024 1 2 MU01S 1772 2002 231 10 0 .759 .69 3.54 .511 .817 .350 2.66 .393 -.005 2 3 MU02A 1912 2002 91 4 0 .637 .90 1.99 .352 .679 .243 2.72 .508 .032 1 4 MU02B 1896 2002 107 5 0 .570 .87 1.57 .309 .684 .245 2.47 .419 -.024 2 5 MU03 1799 2002 204 9 0 .772 .41 1.68 .249 .708 .373 2.65 .505 .010 1 6 MU03B 1784 2002 219 9 0 .795 .34 1.45 .185 .535 .398 2.86 .456 .051 2 7 MU04SE 1622 2002 381 16 0 .791 .62 2.29 .290 .680 .291 2.64 .357 .028 1 8 MU04NW 1629 2002 374 15 0 .826 .55 1.83 .364 .812 .317 2.62 .401 .023 1 9 MU05B 1765 2002 238 10 0 .809 .34 1.41 .210 .751 .385 2.63 .386 .058 1 10 MU05A 1706 2002 297 12 0 .752 .30 .74 .137 .522 .392 2.51 .356 -.007 2 11 MU06N 1869 2002 134 6 0 .616 1.07 2.30 .418 .630 .278 2.56 .527 -.025 1 12 MU07N 1452 2002 551 22 0 .704 .33 1.26 .203 .691 .367 2.57 .272 .008 9 13 MU07W 1433 2002 570 23 0 .721 .32 2.05 .262 .790 .372 2.62 .386 .002 1 14 MU08A 1852 2002 151 6 0 .753 1.27 3.40 .617 .687 .304 2.67 .406 -.033 1 15 MU08B 1449 2002 554 23 0 .794 .41 2.36 .351 .777 .427 2.62 .373 .003 1 16 MU9W 1689 2002 314 13 0 .779 .36 1.29 .194 .663 .323 2.58 .352 -.012 1 17 MU10A 1427 2002 576 23 1 .612 .28 1.93 .219 .719 .459 2.82 .350 -.005 1 18 MU12N 1817 2001 185 8 0 .776 .67 2.49 .516 .790 .418 2.52 .430 .034 1 19 MU12S 1817 2001 185 8 0 .734 .53 2.56 .407 .743 .466 2.61 .485 -.015 1 20 MU14 1614 2002 389 16 0 .731 .29 1.04 .185 .615 .439 2.97 .478 -.044 1 21 MX01A 1472 1767 296 12 0 .546 .36 1.55 .222 .584 .420 2.55 .376 .003 1 22 MX06A 1411 1674 264 9 2 .520 .36 1.68 .282 .793 .461 2.58 .444 -.022 1 23 MX08A 1645 1867 223 9 3 .502 .69 2.09 .426 .838 .295 2.63 .381 -.020 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 6767 278 6 .713 .46 3.75 .296 .716 .379 2.97 .392 .001