Horin Bugatiyn, Mongolia - mong033 Additional Site Information G. Jacoby, R. D'Arrigo, B. Buckley, N. Davi, N. Pederson, and B. Nachin Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : MONG033.CRN Measurement file name : MONG033.RWL Date checked : 10NOV11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1265 Ending year : 1997 Principal investigators: G. Jacoby R. D'Arrigo B. Buckley N. Davi N. Pederson B. Nachin Site name : Horin Bugatiyn Site location : Mongolia Species information : LASI SIBERIAN LARCH Latitude : 4922 Longitude : 09453 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.515 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.190 Avg standard deviation : 0.282 Avg autocorrelation : 0.847 Number dated series : 43 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 72 Pct problem segments : 14.60 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Horin Bugatiyn 16:41 Thu 10 Nov 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 HB25E 1265 1997 .02B-.01B .35 .32A .38 .44 .51 .24B .00B-.06B .03B .52 .52 .38 .41 .44 .52 .65 2 HB1W 1727 1997 .27B .42 .53 .60 .78 .70 .51 .45 .28A .39 3 HB1E 1727 1997 .69 .67 .56 .47B .48 .40B .34B .36 .35 .58 4 HB2E 1710 1997 .64 .66 .60 .54 .50 .54B .35 .34 .50 .51 .61 5 HB2WA 1710 1997 .36 .44 .63 .71 .54 .62 .58 .36 .47 .67 .53 6 HB2WB 1762 1997 .50 .51 .57 .61 .49 .44 .50 .51 .44 7 HB3N 1774 1997 .28B .29B .37B .39 .25B .44 .67 .74 .74 8 HB4S 1694 1997 .64 .70 .76 .71 .63 .65 .69 .59 .52 .51 .47 .48 9 HB4E 1727 1997 .78 .71 .62 .63 .69 .59 .58 .52 .38 .53 10 HB6N 1680 1997 .56 .74 .74 .60 .43 .43 .57 .53 .51 .39 .17B .40 11 HB7S 1620 1997 .65 .60 .56 .68 .80 .77 .64 .57 .49 .62 .55 .51 .49 .29A .54 12 HB7SW 1623 1997 .64 .64 .57 .68 .77 .76 .78 .67 .54 .75 .79 .65 .55 .40 .57 13 HB8S 1730 1997 .75 .64 .46 .36B .58 .78 .73 .70 .64 .72 14 HB8N 1735 1997 .78 .64 .40 .44 .63 .63 .51 .53 .53 .69 15 HB9N 1751 1997 .61 .50 .53 .70 .63 .63 .61 .59 .73 16 HB10E 1575 1997 .55 .55 .61 .51 .52 .72 .74 .73 .63 .57 .70 .67 .66 .58 .48 .68 17 HB10W 1555 1848 .39 .44 .37 .46 .55 .62 .70 .63 .47 .59 .57 18 HB11NE 1770 1997 .46 .47 .66 .80 .70 .59 .72 .75 .63 19 HB11S 1791 1997 .45 .43 .44 .46 .53 .67 .70 .72 20 HB18N 1761 1997 .65 .46 .69 .68 .63 .55 .62 .63 .67 21 HB18W 1740 1997 .70 .57 .49 .69 .67 .60 .56 .53 .52 .64 22 HB19S 1718 1997 .48B .50 .56 .60 .47 .46 .43 .46 .61 .65 .65 23 HB19W 1740 1997 .61 .63 .28A .54 .82 .64 .36 .50 .62 .65 24 HB21N 1754 1997 .59 .73 .73 .71 .62 .53 .55 .71 .78 25 HB21WB 1715 1997 .55 .51 .59 .72 .78 .53 .24A .43 .38 .44 .74 26 HB21S 1697 1997 .46 .51 .50 .58 .67 .60 .47 .33 .42 .56 .63 .77 27 HB22E 1700 1997 .50 .32B .36 .47 .49 .52 .58 .62 .61 .67 .73 28 HB22W 1655 1997 .39 .50 .52 .37 .44 .59 .49 .56 .51 .51 .63 .57 .61 29 HB23W 1770 1997 .51 .53 .45 .56 .59 .48 .50 .61 .69 30 HB23E 1760 1997 .42 .62 .52 .55 .49 .43 .58 .72 .75 31 HB24WB 1796 1997 .58 .63 .71 .60 .52 .61 .58 .59 32 HB26W 1680 1997 .57 .74 .73 .64 .55 .49 .48 .49 .51 .48 .46 .41 33 HB26E 1643 1997 .52 .50 .48 .44 .48 .59 .56 .45 .44 .36 .27A .29A .48 .69 34 HB27W 1730 1997 .51 .60 .67 .58 .75 .69 .60 .64 .69 .66 35 HB27E 1647 1997 .29A .35 .23A .33 .51B .48B .45 .70 .80 .60 .48 .59 .59 .37 36 HB28E 1711 1997 .64 .71 .66 .43 .33B .52 .60 .45 .61 .73 .68 37 HB29NE 1722 1997 .48 .49 .56 .66 .69 .57 .34 .35 .45 .56 .67 38 HB29SW 1753 1997 .39 .53 .71 .76 .68 .59 .46 .41 .54 39 HB30E 1615 1997 .47 .54 .59 .76 .84 .83 .66 .53 .68 .47 .41B .55 .51 .49 .72 40 HB30S 1618 1997 .56 .62 .64 .72 .80 .76 .67 .61 .65 .53 .46 .59 .60 .59 .75 41 HB24S 1631 1997 -.18B-.04B-.08B-.26B-.12B .04B-.11B-.22B .25B .31B .18B .18B .15B .04B 42 HB24WA 1667 1997 .12B .11B-.07B-.04B .14B .09B-.18B .00B .22B .36 .39 .58 .58 43 HB5NE 1545 1997 -.12B-.19B-.06B .18B .34 .18B .16B .15B .04B-.09B-.09B-.12B-.25B-.08B .26B .20B .14B .06B Av segment correlation -.05 .06 .32 .47 .44 .41 .48 .51 .54 .52 .49 .51 .56 .51 .48 .52 .53 .60 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Horin Bugatiyn 16:41 Thu 10 Nov 2011 Page 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 HB25E 1265 1997 733 18 7 .298 .18 1.02 .369 .965 .220 2.51 .352 -.018 3 2 HB1W 1727 1997 271 10 2 .442 .61 1.32 .244 .815 .196 2.59 .355 -.025 1 3 HB1E 1727 1997 271 10 3 .540 .35 1.18 .276 .913 .247 2.66 .415 -.031 1 4 HB2E 1710 1997 288 11 1 .541 .51 1.65 .329 .906 .181 2.55 .289 -.015 2 5 HB2WA 1710 1997 288 11 0 .519 .50 1.60 .285 .909 .196 2.61 .331 -.038 3 6 HB2WB 1762 1997 236 9 0 .501 .40 1.04 .208 .867 .199 2.91 .443 -.039 1 7 HB3N 1774 1997 224 9 4 .510 .56 1.62 .361 .938 .177 2.54 .346 -.033 1 8 HB4S 1694 1997 304 12 0 .614 .56 1.30 .244 .829 .197 2.38 .276 -.011 1 9 HB4E 1727 1997 271 10 0 .611 .61 1.43 .287 .839 .200 2.39 .285 -.040 1 10 HB6N 1680 1997 318 12 1 .531 .35 1.30 .228 .900 .212 2.60 .296 -.062 1 11 HB7S 1620 1997 378 15 1 .604 .56 1.33 .244 .835 .192 2.55 .358 -.008 5 12 HB7SW 1623 1997 375 15 0 .653 .56 2.00 .301 .875 .197 2.65 .397 -.014 1 13 HB8S 1730 1997 268 10 1 .664 .93 1.81 .311 .555 .259 2.53 .311 -.016 1 14 HB8N 1735 1997 263 10 0 .628 .66 1.59 .269 .709 .248 2.40 .302 -.038 1 15 HB9N 1751 1997 247 9 0 .626 .74 1.70 .363 .884 .189 2.47 .318 -.068 2 16 HB10E 1575 1997 423 16 0 .623 .42 .83 .135 .730 .187 2.58 .420 -.030 1 17 HB10W 1555 1848 294 11 0 .491 .43 1.06 .215 .861 .206 2.59 .342 -.021 1 18 HB11NE 1770 1997 228 9 0 .627 .62 1.36 .233 .766 .194 2.57 .337 -.028 1 19 HB11S 1791 1997 207 8 0 .588 1.11 1.92 .295 .687 .160 2.73 .403 -.027 1 20 HB18N 1761 1997 237 9 0 .634 .68 1.73 .271 .843 .167 2.66 .361 -.040 2 21 HB18W 1740 1997 258 10 0 .622 .63 1.15 .198 .820 .151 2.60 .454 .014 2 22 HB19S 1718 1997 280 11 1 .533 .74 1.84 .384 .913 .159 2.53 .284 -.017 2 23 HB19W 1740 1997 258 10 1 .589 .61 1.45 .268 .895 .160 2.47 .307 -.077 1 24 HB21N 1754 1997 244 9 0 .652 .41 .97 .216 .890 .209 2.69 .476 -.015 2 25 HB21WB 1715 1997 283 11 1 .550 .36 1.68 .172 .791 .204 2.81 .351 -.001 2 26 HB21S 1697 1997 301 12 0 .557 .37 3.13 .277 .840 .229 2.61 .360 -.012 1 27 HB22E 1700 1997 298 11 1 .527 .62 1.54 .232 .845 .158 2.48 .256 -.030 1 28 HB22W 1655 1997 343 13 0 .504 .70 2.79 .469 .946 .155 2.51 .345 -.039 1 29 HB23W 1770 1997 228 9 0 .557 .61 1.19 .157 .605 .170 2.53 .381 -.026 2 30 HB23E 1760 1997 238 9 0 .536 .72 1.47 .223 .750 .162 2.48 .284 -.014 1 31 HB24WB 1796 1997 202 8 0 .601 .42 .65 .102 .738 .141 2.45 .343 -.020 2 32 HB26W 1680 1997 318 12 0 .532 .38 .92 .131 .776 .190 2.64 .393 -.015 1 33 HB26E 1643 1997 355 14 2 .489 .50 1.31 .233 .917 .153 2.54 .361 -.042 1 34 HB27W 1730 1997 268 10 0 .631 .63 1.22 .248 .884 .154 2.69 .347 -.068 2 35 HB27E 1647 1997 351 14 4 .465 .67 1.43 .237 .815 .169 2.52 .259 -.026 1 36 HB28E 1711 1997 287 11 1 .596 .59 2.63 .463 .926 .189 2.72 .391 -.074 1 37 HB29NE 1722 1997 276 11 0 .526 .57 1.46 .253 .912 .143 2.62 .409 -.023 1 38 HB29SW 1753 1997 245 9 0 .535 .64 1.17 .178 .732 .168 2.59 .445 .000 1 39 HB30E 1615 1997 383 15 1 .602 .65 1.93 .242 .788 .193 2.44 .286 -.057 1 40 HB30S 1618 1997 380 15 0 .649 .62 2.22 .280 .821 .194 2.52 .264 -.020 3 41 HB24S 1631 1997 367 14 14 -.008 .70 3.08 .679 .966 .188 2.82 .398 -.022 1 42 HB24WA 1667 1997 331 13 9 .200 .65 1.88 .456 .955 .161 2.68 .319 .003 1 43 HB5NE 1545 1997 453 18 17 .036 .34 1.46 .266 .904 .259 2.74 .390 .022 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 13071 493 72 .515 .55 3.13 .282 .847 .190 2.91 .349 -.026