Tolbachik, Kamchatka, Russia - russ213 Additional Site Information Olga Solomina, Gordon Jacoby, Rosanne D'Arrigo, and Moses Gostev Purpose of Collection: Climatology - precipitation analysis Reference: Cook, E.R., K.J. Anchukaitis, B.M. Buckley, R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, and W.E. Wright. 2010. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977, pp.486-489, 23 April 2010. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185188 COFECHA output: Chronology file name : RUSS213.CRN Measurement file name : RUSS213.RWL Date checked : 27OCT11 Checked by : B. Bauer Beginning year : 1707 Ending year : 1994 Principal investigators: Olga Solomina Gordon Jacoby Rosanne D'Arrigo Moses Gostev Site name : Tolbachik, Kamchatka Site location : Russia Species information : LAGM DAHURIAN LARCH Latitude : 5549 Longitude : 16010 Elevation : M Series intercorrelation: 0.652 Avg mean sensitivity : 0.285 Avg standard deviation : 0.416 Avg autocorrelation : 0.728 Number dated series : 34 Segment length tested : 50 Number problem segments: 4 Pct problem segments : 1.67 PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Tolbachik 13:56 Thu 27 Oct 2011 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 KTL011 1874 1983 .52 .52 .51 .67 .70 2 KTL012 1867 1983 .71 .70 .64 .56 .53 3 KTL021 1875 1983 .53 .64 .72 .63 4 KTL022 1867 1983 .58 .57 .56 .52 .37 5 KTL031 1851 1983 .76 .60 .74 .88 .83 6 KTL032 1851 1983 .77 .82 .88 .91 .89 7 KTL041 1838 1983 .63 .75 .53 .59 .63 .63 8 KTL042 1838 1983 .60 .71 .69 .77 .80 .76 9 KTL051 1852 1983 .78 .72 .81 .85 .85 10 KTL052 1852 1983 .80 .80 .83 .82 .81 11 KTL061 1862 1983 .67 .69 .70 .76 .81 12 KTL081 1742 1983 .76 .80 .83 .79 .77 .72 .68 .81 .88 .88 13 KTL082 1707 1983 .72 .74 .71 .77 .78 .75 .78 .82 .79 .80 .78 14 KTL091 1836 1983 .70 .75 .68 .75 .72 .72 15 KTL092 1827 1983 .53 .73 .70 .64 .65 .68 16 KTL101 1782 1983 .76 .71 .72 .76 .71 .81 .80 .74 17 KTL102 1769 1983 .51 .52 .64 .85 .80 .63 .73 .74 .75 18 KTL121 1775 1983 .76 .77 .77 .73 .74 .86 .79 .74 19 KTL122 1772 1983 .77 .74 .69 .68 .66 .59 .76 .86 .78 20 KTL131 1854 1983 .72 .80 .82 .67 .65 21 KTL132 1850 1983 .70 .74 .86 .81 .79 22 KTL141 1823 1983 .62 .66 .76 .63 .72 .76 .76 23 KTL142 1817 1983 .42 .52 .81 .69 .65 .76 .79 24 kr01 1710 1990 .82 .84 .75 .67 .63 .48 .41 .59 .63 .49 .45 25 kr02 1761 1990 .66 .78 .64 .60 .54 .66 .70 .57 .67 26 kr03 1767 1990 .72 .70 .73 .49 .46 .71 .59 .43 .50 27 kr04 1736 1990 .84 .77 .71 .57 .23B .17B .37 .56 .45 .40 28 kr05 1712 1990 .79 .80 .79 .61 .54 .47 .34 .55 .70 .49 .50 29 kr06 1803 1990 .61 .62 .67 .67 .66 .68 .70 30 kr07 1775 1990 .63 .57 .54 .47 .53 .42 .36 .50 31 kr08 1814 1990 .44 .64 .69 .75 .57 .44 .45 32 kr09 1822 1975 .55 .55 .56 .62 .46 .41 .40 33 kr10 1844 1994 .59 .64 .67 .76 .68 .47 34 kr11 1821 1975 .42 .49 .53 .63 .53 .29A .28B Av segment correlation .78 .80 .72 .71 .62 .60 .65 .66 .69 .67 .65 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Tolbachik 13:56 Thu 27 Oct 2011 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 KTL011 1874 1983 110 5 0 .614 1.21 3.27 .548 .724 .234 2.65 .422 -.023 1 2 KTL012 1867 1983 117 5 0 .635 1.42 4.55 .792 .737 .301 2.76 .498 .021 1 3 KTL021 1875 1983 109 4 0 .586 1.13 4.70 .697 .717 .299 2.54 .407 -.084 2 4 KTL022 1867 1983 117 5 0 .471 1.42 4.58 .838 .675 .311 2.50 .336 -.029 1 5 KTL031 1851 1983 133 5 0 .752 1.07 3.03 .533 .653 .285 2.74 .470 -.013 1 6 KTL032 1851 1983 133 5 0 .841 1.10 3.17 .499 .575 .288 2.70 .400 .013 1 7 KTL041 1838 1983 146 6 0 .589 .85 1.90 .334 .685 .260 2.50 .325 -.054 1 8 KTL042 1838 1983 146 6 0 .677 .96 3.08 .479 .724 .275 2.72 .482 -.004 1 9 KTL051 1852 1983 132 5 0 .788 .86 2.47 .401 .662 .283 2.59 .377 -.025 1 10 KTL052 1852 1983 132 5 0 .792 .85 1.77 .341 .556 .288 2.58 .481 -.040 1 11 KTL061 1862 1983 122 5 0 .728 1.25 2.85 .576 .754 .248 2.53 .326 -.031 1 12 KTL081 1742 1983 242 10 0 .769 .65 2.65 .368 .744 .312 2.65 .339 -.053 2 13 KTL082 1707 1983 277 11 0 .752 .54 1.42 .257 .677 .287 2.58 .341 -.030 1 14 KTL091 1836 1983 148 6 0 .704 .88 1.92 .365 .674 .276 2.61 .461 -.057 1 15 KTL092 1827 1983 157 6 0 .633 1.11 2.65 .446 .601 .277 2.67 .417 -.033 4 16 KTL101 1782 1983 202 8 0 .746 .52 1.38 .199 .675 .246 2.73 .430 .002 2 17 KTL102 1769 1983 215 9 0 .673 .65 2.03 .290 .731 .252 2.77 .462 -.042 1 18 KTL121 1775 1983 209 8 0 .756 .57 2.15 .410 .855 .324 2.60 .407 -.039 1 19 KTL122 1772 1983 212 9 0 .709 .66 2.40 .394 .771 .319 2.80 .387 -.001 1 20 KTL131 1854 1983 130 5 0 .732 1.45 4.13 .667 .652 .290 2.66 .432 .002 1 21 KTL132 1850 1983 134 5 0 .779 .77 2.20 .371 .674 .299 2.57 .399 -.041 1 22 KTL141 1823 1983 161 7 0 .674 .94 2.75 .486 .829 .207 2.50 .373 -.025 1 23 KTL142 1817 1983 167 7 0 .628 .78 2.75 .383 .635 .237 2.78 .377 -.028 1 24 kr01 1710 1990 281 11 0 .624 .49 1.69 .322 .845 .282 2.52 .361 -.024 1 25 kr02 1761 1990 230 9 0 .638 .76 2.79 .395 .804 .258 2.56 .385 .023 1 26 kr03 1767 1990 224 9 0 .583 .58 1.60 .262 .604 .326 2.68 .353 .012 1 27 kr04 1736 1990 255 10 2 .521 .59 1.61 .296 .731 .302 2.51 .316 -.018 1 28 kr05 1712 1990 279 11 0 .596 .47 1.54 .259 .740 .341 2.71 .377 .001 1 29 kr06 1803 1990 188 7 0 .631 .70 2.26 .447 .867 .250 2.40 .255 -.058 1 30 kr07 1775 1990 216 8 0 .511 .71 2.48 .393 .801 .276 2.67 .398 -.020 2 31 kr08 1814 1990 177 7 0 .558 .72 2.89 .506 .881 .237 2.55 .346 -.028 1 32 kr09 1822 1975 154 7 0 .521 1.12 2.88 .656 .683 .367 2.58 .461 -.031 1 33 kr10 1844 1994 151 6 0 .559 1.02 2.75 .516 .817 .254 2.69 .383 -.015 3 34 kr11 1821 1975 155 7 2 .453 .72 2.66 .452 .714 .338 2.94 .548 -.023 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 5961 239 4 .652 .80 4.70 .416 .728 .285 2.94 .392 -.022