[] Dendrochronology Program Library Run DEER Program COF 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25195 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: Deer Springs File of DATED series: ut517.rwl CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Text in file: DSM 1 Deer Springs Mesa PIED Text in file: DSM 2 Utah Pinyon Pine 2200M 3718-11211 __ 1477 1998 Text in file: DSM 3 David E. Grow Time span of Master dating series is 1477 to 1998 522 years Continuous time span is 1477 to 1998 522 years Portion with two or more series is 1477 to 1998 522 years >> DSM01A 1951 absent in 4 of 29 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.343 >> DSM01A 1974 absent in 2 of 28 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.040 >> DSM02A 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM02A 1611 absent in 2 of 9 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.347 >> DSM02B 1974 absent in 2 of 28 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.040 >> DSM02B 1984 absent in 1 of 27 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .109 >> DSM07A 1611 absent in 2 of 9 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.347 >> DSM08A 1951 absent in 4 of 29 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.343 >> DSM08B 1951 absent in 4 of 29 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.343 >> DSM09B 1887 absent in 1 of 31 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .371 >> DSM11A 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM11B 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM11B 1951 absent in 4 of 29 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.343 >> DSM11B 1991 absent in 1 of 27 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .194 >> DSM12A 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM12B 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM13A 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM13A 1855 absent in 1 of 31 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.231 >> DSM13B 1566 absent in 7 of 7 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is -.042 >> DSM19C 1837 absent in 1 of 31 series, but is not usually narrow: master index is .188 **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 33 *C* *O* Master series 1477 1998 522 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 11152 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 11152 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .822 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .447 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 0 *A* *** Mean length of series 337.9 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) DSM01A 13 absent rings: 1735 1736 1780 1820 1847 1879 1883 1899 1934 1951 1963 1974 1977 DSM01B 12 absent rings: 1735 1780 1813 1820 1847 1864 1879 1883 1899 1963 1970 1977 DSM02A 19 absent rings: 1566 1611 1626 1654 1729 1735 1736 1770 1773 1820 1847 1879 1882 1883 1899 1931 1934 1972 1977 DSM02B 10 absent rings: 1879 1882 1883 1896 1899 1934 1956 1974 1977 1984 DSM04A 2 absent rings: 1882 1883 DSM04B 5 absent rings: 1735 1773 1883 1899 1977 DSM05A 3 absent rings: 1820 1847 1879 DSM05B 9 absent rings: 1820 1847 1879 1882 1883 1899 1953 1956 1959 DSM06A 7 absent rings: 1879 1883 1899 1961 1977 1989 1990 DSM06B 8 absent rings: 1800 1820 1847 1879 1882 1883 1899 1904 DSM07A 19 absent rings: 1607 1611 1729 1735 1773 1782 1820 1847 1879 1883 1896 1899 1904 1934 1956 1959 1961 1963 1977 DSM07B 4 absent rings: 1735 1773 1813 1820 DSM08A 8 absent rings: 1773 1847 1879 1883 1951 1959 1961 1977 DSM08B 10 absent rings: 1670 1847 1879 1882 1883 1896 1899 1951 1961 1977 DSM09A 5 absent rings: 1847 1864 1879 1883 1996 DSM09B 5 absent rings: 1729 1735 1773 1882 1887 DSM11A 2 absent rings: 1566 1879 DSM11B 6 absent rings: 1566 1847 1883 1899 1951 1991 DSM12A 17 absent rings: 1566 1583 1626 1632 1654 1670 1729 1735 1736 1755 1780 1820 1847 1879 1899 1961 1977 DSM12B 15 absent rings: 1566 1585 1626 1632 1654 1670 1707 1735 1736 1773 1856 1858 1861 1864 1977 DSM13A 15 absent rings: 1566 1584 1585 1607 1626 1729 1735 1736 1773 1820 1855 1879 1883 1899 1977 DSM13B 6 absent rings: 1566 1585 1632 1729 1735 1847 DSM17A 6 absent rings: 1735 1820 1847 1899 1924 1977 DSM17B 11 absent rings: 1735 1736 1773 1782 1820 1847 1879 1882 1899 1934 1959 DSM18A 6 absent rings: 1847 1879 1883 1899 1904 1977 DSM18B 6 absent rings: 1820 1847 1879 1963 1970 1977 DSM19A 14 absent rings: 1735 1736 1761 1773 1782 1820 1847 1864 1879 1883 1899 1963 1970 1977 DSM19B 4 absent rings: 1722 1729 1735 1736 DSM19C 14 absent rings: 1820 1837 1845 1864 1879 1882 1883 1899 1904 1934 1959 1963 1977 1990 DSM20A 11 absent rings: 1735 1736 1770 1773 1820 1847 1879 1882 1883 1899 1977 DSM20B 11 absent rings: 1735 1773 1820 1847 1861 1879 1882 1883 1899 1904 1977 283 absent rings 2.538% PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. DSM01A 1 1664 1998 335 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. DSM01B 2 1664 1998 335 . . . . . . . . . . <=================================================>. DSM02A 3 1494 1998 505 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============>. DSM02B 4 1850 1998 149 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================>. DSM04A 5 1708 1998 291 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============================>. DSM04B 6 1688 1998 311 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> . DSM05A 7 1678 1950 273 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============================> . DSM05B 8 1678 1960 283 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=================================>. DSM06A 9 1650 1998 349 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================> . . DSM06B 10 1650 1930 281 . . . . . . . . . . . . <======================================> . DSM07A 11 1593 1980 388 . . . . . . . . . . . . <========================> . . . DSM07B 12 1608 1850 243 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. DSM08A 13 1628 1998 371 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. DSM08B 14 1628 1998 371 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================>. DSM09A 15 1698 1998 301 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <=============================>. DSM09B 16 1698 1998 301 . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================================>. DSM11A 17 1551 1998 448 . . . . . . . . . . . <===========================================>. DSM11B 18 1551 1998 448 . . . . . . . . . . <===================================================>. DSM12A 19 1477 1998 522 . . . . . . . . . . <===================================================>. DSM12B 20 1477 1998 522 . . . . . . . . . . . <============================================>. DSM13A 21 1547 1998 452 . . . . . . . . . . . <============================================>. DSM13B 22 1547 1998 452 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. DSM14A 23 1833 1998 166 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============>. DSM14B 24 1833 1998 166 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================================>. DSM17A 25 1630 1998 369 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================================>. DSM17B 26 1630 1998 369 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. DSM18A 27 1664 1998 335 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<================================>. DSM18B 28 1664 1998 335 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <====================================>. DSM19A 29 1621 1998 378 . . . . . . . . . . . . . <============> . . . . . DSM19B 30 1621 1750 130 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==================>. DSM19C 31 1800 1998 199 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================================>. DSM20A 32 1612 1998 387 . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=====================================>. DSM20B 33 1612 1998 387 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1500 -3.797 3 1550 .309 5 1600 -1.970 8 1650 -1.237 19 1501 .278 3 1551 -.142 7 1601 .902 8 1651 .717 19 1502 .336 3 1552 .061 7 1602 .425 8 1652 -.613 19 1503 .921 3 1553 .441 7 1603 -.151 8 1653 -.772 19 1504 .217 3 1554 .618 7 1604 .998 8 1654 -3.290 19 3 1505 -.374 3 1555 .655 7 1605 .847 8 1655 .257 19 1506 -2.374 3 1556 -.141 7 1606 .099 8 1656 .478 19 1507 -.110 3 1557 .568 7 1607 -.994 8 2 1657 .628 19 1508 .702 3 1558 .081 7 1608 .461 9 1658 -.373 19 1509 1.187 3 1559 -.082 7 1609 1.097 9 1659 .624 19 1510 1.263 3 1560 .269 7 1610 .591 9 1660 1.108 19 1511 1.144 3 1561 .422 7 1611 -.347 9 2<< 1661 .891 19 1512 1.035 3 1562 -.085 7 1612 -.018 11 1662 .664 19 1513 .613 3 1563 -.294 7 1613 -.863 11 1663 -.337 19 1514 .613 3 1564 .395 7 1614 -.597 11 1664 .764 23 1515 -1.385 3 1565 1.079 7 1615 .044 11 1665 .019 23 1516 -.490 3 1566 -.042 7 7<< 1616 -.043 11 1666 .518 23 1517 -.700 3 1567 .910 7 1617 .129 11 1667 -1.334 23 1518 -.024 3 1568 .592 7 1618 .577 11 1668 -.525 23 1519 1.189 3 1569 .686 7 1619 .599 11 1669 -1.124 23 1520 -.987 3 1570 .581 7 1620 .831 11 1670 -3.527 23 3 1521 -.804 3 1571 .089 7 1621 1.156 13 1671 -.188 23 1522 -1.829 3 1572 -.590 7 1622 .117 13 1672 .336 23 1523 -.142 3 1573 -.412 7 1623 -.843 13 1673 .908 23 1524 .018 3 1574 -.780 7 1624 -.437 13 1674 .886 23 1525 .414 3 1575 -.413 7 1625 .405 13 1675 -.452 23 1526 .988 3 1576 -.046 7 1626 -2.129 13 4 1676 -.354 23 1477 -2.056 2 1527 .810 3 1577 .981 7 1627 .873 13 1677 .802 23 1478 .942 2 1528 -.822 3 1578 1.278 7 1628 1.055 15 1678 .654 25 1479 -.022 2 1529 -1.206 3 1579 .283 7 1629 .380 15 1679 .288 25 1480 1.103 2 1530 -.151 3 1580 -.065 7 1630 .028 17 1680 .638 25 1481 -.607 2 1531 -.509 3 1581 .229 7 1631 -1.116 17 1681 1.014 25 1482 1.202 2 1532 -2.987 3 1582 .317 7 1632 -2.972 17 3 1682 .557 25 1483 -.164 2 1533 -.108 3 1583 -.594 7 1 1633 -.226 17 1683 1.027 25 1484 1.145 2 1534 .653 3 1584 -1.702 7 1 1634 -.156 17 1684 -.450 25 1485 .044 2 1535 1.028 3 1585 -2.175 7 3 1635 .837 17 1685 -2.764 25 1486 .879 2 1536 1.569 3 1586 .406 7 1636 .717 17 1686 -2.110 25 1487 -1.476 2 1537 1.480 3 1587 .679 7 1637 -.795 17 1687 .259 25 1488 -1.719 2 1538 -.406 3 1588 .795 7 1638 -.757 17 1688 .969 26 1489 .216 2 1539 .778 3 1589 1.224 7 1639 .200 17 1689 .360 26 1490 1.174 2 1540 .391 3 1590 -.956 7 1640 1.236 17 1690 -.353 26 1491 1.166 2 1541 .468 3 1591 -.185 7 1641 1.140 17 1691 -.254 26 1492 .339 2 1542 -2.685 3 1592 -.634 7 1642 .343 17 1692 .196 26 1493 .785 2 1543 .892 3 1593 -.182 8 1643 .136 17 1693 -.260 26 1494 1.006 3 1544 -1.190 3 1594 1.033 8 1644 .850 17 1694 -.123 26 1495 -.754 3 1545 -1.252 3 1595 .040 8 1645 .425 17 1695 .528 26 1496 -.705 3 1546 .882 3 1596 .995 8 1646 -.247 17 1696 .422 26 1497 -.978 3 1547 -1.301 5 1597 -.711 8 1647 1.053 17 1697 1.535 26 1498 .504 3 1548 -.828 5 1598 -.238 8 1648 -.745 17 1698 -.615 28 1499 .008 3 1549 .652 5 1599 .711 8 1649 .787 17 1699 .182 28 PART 3: Master Dating Series: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1700 -.717 28 1750 -.281 29 1800 -2.362 29 1 1850 1.171 32 1900 -.603 31 1950 -.140 30 1701 .611 28 1751 -1.411 28 1801 -1.548 29 1851 .541 31 1901 -.011 31 1951 -.343 29 4<< 1702 .467 28 1752 -.406 28 1802 .800 29 1852 1.211 31 1902 -1.595 31 1952 1.374 29 1703 -2.744 28 1753 .089 28 1803 -.041 29 1853 .957 31 1903 -.039 31 1953 -1.022 29 1 1704 -.090 28 1754 -.615 28 1804 .723 29 1854 -.056 31 1904 -2.310 31 5 1954 .025 29 1705 .352 28 1755 -2.175 28 1 1805 -.405 29 1855 -.231 31 1<< 1905 .250 31 1955 -.344 29 1706 .102 28 1756 -.441 28 1806 .183 29 1856 -.474 31 1 1906 .722 31 1956 -1.134 29 3 1707 -.587 28 1 1757 .068 28 1807 .796 29 1857 -.975 31 1907 1.032 31 1957 .935 29 1708 -.627 29 1758 .586 28 1808 -1.269 29 1858 -.670 31 1 1908 .722 31 1958 .866 29 1709 -.853 29 1759 .487 28 1809 -.641 29 1859 -.578 31 1909 .609 31 1959 -1.174 29 5 1710 .243 29 1760 1.176 28 1810 .239 29 1860 -1.412 31 1910 .322 31 1960 .443 29 1711 .620 29 1761 -.959 28 1 1811 1.373 29 1861 -1.132 31 2 1911 .559 31 1961 -1.425 28 5 1712 1.126 29 1762 .453 28 1812 .298 29 1862 .847 31 1912 .193 31 1962 .608 28 1713 .931 29 1763 -1.230 28 1813 -1.612 29 2 1863 .202 31 1913 .173 31 1963 -.937 28 6 1714 -.101 29 1764 .841 28 1814 .483 29 1864 -1.045 31 5 1914 .813 31 1964 .310 28 1715 -.699 29 1765 -.144 28 1815 .267 29 1865 .597 31 1915 .782 31 1965 .830 28 1716 -1.137 29 1766 .955 28 1816 1.007 29 1866 .953 31 1916 .989 31 1966 .656 28 1717 -.457 29 1767 .878 28 1817 .974 29 1867 1.059 31 1917 .665 31 1967 .591 28 1718 .377 29 1768 1.036 28 1818 -.431 29 1868 1.410 31 1918 .252 31 1968 .366 28 1719 1.080 29 1769 -.044 28 1819 .543 29 1869 .941 31 1919 -.641 31 1969 .776 28 1720 1.617 29 1770 -1.905 28 2 1820 -3.783 29 17 1870 -.300 31 1920 .549 31 1970 -.627 28 3 1721 .283 29 1771 .927 28 1821 1.256 29 1871 -1.237 31 1921 -.297 31 1971 -.758 28 1722 -1.501 29 1 1772 .253 28 1822 -.436 29 1872 .182 31 1922 .887 31 1972 -.757 28 1 1723 .288 29 1773 -2.592 28 12 1823 -.800 29 1873 -.603 31 1923 -.016 31 1973 .798 28 1724 .296 29 1774 -.158 28 1824 -.030 29 1874 .650 31 1924 -2.208 31 1 1974 -.040 28 2<< 1725 .375 29 1775 1.167 28 1825 .126 29 1875 .944 31 1925 -1.065 31 1975 .978 28 1726 .867 29 1776 -.297 28 1826 .754 29 1876 .678 31 1926 .597 31 1976 .406 28 1727 .803 29 1777 .063 28 1827 .283 29 1877 .228 31 1927 -.434 31 1977 -4.299 28 19 1728 -.197 29 1778 .167 28 1828 1.260 29 1878 .483 31 1928 .488 31 1978 .827 28 1729 -2.627 29 7 1779 .340 28 1829 -.183 29 1879 -1.794 31 22 1929 -.847 31 1979 .698 28 1730 .652 29 1780 -1.363 28 3 1830 -.367 29 1880 .069 31 1930 -.102 31 1980 .398 28 1731 .132 29 1781 .691 28 1831 -1.934 29 1881 -.459 31 1931 -.741 30 1 1981 .091 27 1732 .418 29 1782 -1.347 28 3 1832 .555 29 1882 -2.121 31 11 1932 .995 30 1982 .849 27 1733 .290 29 1783 -.442 28 1833 .743 31 1883 -2.158 31 20 1933 -.479 30 1983 .609 27 1734 1.130 29 1784 1.198 28 1834 -.100 31 1884 .311 31 1934 -2.600 30 6 1984 .109 27 1<< 1735 -2.440 29 17 1785 -.965 28 1835 -.239 31 1885 .974 31 1935 .263 30 1985 .635 27 1736 -1.796 29 9 1786 .334 28 1836 -.674 31 1886 .766 31 1936 -1.141 30 1986 .368 27 1737 -.732 29 1787 1.254 28 1837 .188 31 1<< 1887 .371 31 1<< 1937 .678 30 1987 .423 27 1738 .945 29 1788 -.329 28 1838 1.178 31 1888 .774 31 1938 .713 30 1988 .110 27 1739 -1.115 29 1789 -.375 28 1839 1.082 31 1889 .735 31 1939 -.669 30 1989 -2.116 27 1 1740 -.232 29 1790 .382 28 1840 .983 31 1890 1.304 31 1940 .598 30 1990 -3.827 27 2 1741 .698 29 1791 .967 28 1841 -.296 31 1891 .835 31 1941 .765 30 1991 .194 27 1<< 1742 -.028 29 1792 .917 28 1842 -.202 31 1892 .834 31 1942 1.078 30 1992 .158 27 1743 .829 29 1793 1.421 28 1843 -.071 31 1893 -.084 31 1943 1.057 30 1993 .545 27 1744 .296 29 1794 -.382 28 1844 .481 31 1894 -.987 31 1944 .935 30 1994 .035 27 1745 1.093 29 1795 .453 28 1845 -1.369 31 1 1895 .338 31 1945 .256 30 1995 1.167 27 1746 .998 29 1796 -.686 28 1846 -.597 31 1896 -1.539 31 3 1946 -1.847 30 1996 -.975 27 1 1747 1.108 29 1797 .642 28 1847 -2.453 31 20 1897 .742 31 1947 -.735 30 1997 .301 27 1748 -.617 29 1798 -1.001 28 1848 .437 31 1898 .688 31 1948 .286 30 1998 .789 27 1749 1.305 29 1799 .406 28 1849 1.258 31 1899 -2.630 31 20 1949 .959 30 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1500o 1550-----A 1501-----A 1551---a 1502------A 1552----@ 1503---------D 1553------B 1504-----A 1554-------B 1505---a 1555-------C 1506i 1556---a 1507----@ 1557-------B 1508--------C 1558----@ 1509----------E 1559----@ 1510----------E 1560-----A 1511----------E 1561------B 1512---------D 1562----@ 1513-------B 1563---a 1514-------B 1564------B 1515-f 1565----------D 1516--b 1566----@ 1517--c 1567---------D 1518----@ 1568-------B 1519----------E 1569-------C 1520-d 1570-------B 1521-c 1571----@ 1522g 1572--b 1523---a 1573---b 1524----@ 1574--c 1525------B 1575---b 1526---------D 1576----@ 1477h 1527--------C 1577---------D 1478---------D 1528-c 1578----------E 1479----@ 1529-e 1579-----A 1480----------D 1530---a 1580----@ 1481--b 1531--b 1581-----A 1482----------E 1532l 1582-----A 1483---a 1533----@ 1583--b 1484----------E 1534-------C 1584g 1485----@ 1535---------D 1585i 1486---------D 1536----------F 1586------B 1487-f 1537----------F 1587-------C 1488g 1538---b 1588--------C 1489-----A 1539--------C 1589----------E 1490----------E 1540------B 1590-d 1491----------E 1541------B 1591---a 1492------A 1542k 1592--c 1493--------C 1543---------D 1593---a 1494---------D 1544-e 1594---------D 1495--c 1545-e 1595----@ 1496--c 1546---------D 1596---------D 1497-d 1547-e 1597--c 1498------B 1548-c 1598---a 1499----@ 1549-------C 1599--------C PART 4: Master Bar Plot: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1600h 1650-e 1700--c 1750---a 1800i 1850----------E 1900--b 1950---a 1601---------D 1651--------C 1701-------B 1751-f 1801-f 1851-------B 1901----@ 1951---a 1602------B 1652--b 1702------B 1752---b 1802--------C 1852----------E 1902f 1952----------E 1603---a 1653--c 1703k 1753----@ 1803----@ 1853---------D 1903----@ 1953-d 1604---------D 1654m 1704----@ 1754--b 1804--------C 1854----@ 1904i 1954----@ 1605--------C 1655-----A 1705------A 1755i 1805---b 1855---a 1905-----A 1955---a 1606----@ 1656------B 1706----@ 1756--b 1806-----A 1856--b 1906--------C 1956-e 1607-d 1657-------C 1707--b 1757----@ 1807--------C 1857-d 1907---------D 1957---------D 1608------B 1658---a 1708--c 1758-------B 1808-e 1858--c 1908--------C 1958--------C 1609----------D 1659-------B 1709-c 1759------B 1809--c 1859--b 1909-------B 1959-e 1610-------B 1660----------D 1710-----A 1760----------E 1810-----A 1860-f 1910-----A 1960------B 1611---a 1661---------D 1711-------B 1761-d 1811----------E 1861-e 1911-------B 1961-f 1612----@ 1662-------C 1712----------E 1762------B 1812-----A 1862--------C 1912-----A 1962-------B 1613-c 1663---a 1713---------D 1763-e 1813f 1863-----A 1913-----A 1963-d 1614--b 1664--------C 1714----@ 1764--------C 1814------B 1864-d 1914--------C 1964-----A 1615----@ 1665----@ 1715--c 1765---a 1815-----A 1865-------B 1915--------C 1965--------C 1616----@ 1666-------B 1716-e 1766---------D 1816---------D 1866---------D 1916---------D 1966-------C 1617-----A 1667-e 1717--b 1767---------D 1817---------D 1867---------D 1917-------C 1967-------B 1618-------B 1668--b 1718------B 1768---------D 1818---b 1868----------F 1918-----A 1968------A 1619-------B 1669-d 1719----------D 1769----@ 1819-------B 1869---------D 1919--c 1969--------C 1620--------C 1670n 1720----------F 1770h 1820o 1870---a 1920-------B 1970--c 1621----------E 1671---a 1721-----A 1771---------D 1821----------E 1871-e 1921---a 1971--c 1622-----@ 1672------A 1722-f 1772-----A 1822--b 1872-----A 1922---------D 1972--c 1623-c 1673---------D 1723-----A 1773j 1823--c 1873--b 1923----@ 1973--------C 1624--b 1674---------D 1724-----A 1774---a 1824----@ 1874-------C 1924i 1974----@ 1625------B 1675--b 1725------B 1775----------E 1825-----A 1875---------D 1925-d 1975---------D 1626i 1676---a 1726--------C 1776---a 1826--------C 1876-------C 1926-------B 1976------B 1627--------C 1677--------C 1727--------C 1777----@ 1827-----A 1877-----A 1927--b 1977q 1628---------D 1678-------C 1728---a 1778-----A 1828----------E 1878------B 1928------B 1978--------C 1629------B 1679-----A 1729k 1779------A 1829---a 1879g 1929-c 1979-------C 1630----@ 1680-------C 1730-------C 1780-e 1830---a 1880----@ 1930----@ 1980------B 1631-d 1681---------D 1731-----A 1781-------C 1831h 1881--b 1931--c 1981----@ 1632l 1682-------B 1732------B 1782-e 1832-------B 1882h 1932---------D 1982--------C 1633---a 1683---------D 1733-----A 1783--b 1833--------C 1883i 1933--b 1983-------B 1634---a 1684--b 1734----------E 1784----------E 1834----@ 1884-----A 1934j 1984----@ 1635--------C 1685k 1735j 1785-d 1835---a 1885---------D 1935-----A 1985-------C 1636--------C 1686h 1736g 1786------A 1836--c 1886--------C 1936-e 1986------A 1637--c 1687-----A 1737--c 1787----------E 1837-----A 1887------A 1937-------C 1987------B 1638--c 1688---------D 1738---------D 1788---a 1838----------E 1888--------C 1938--------C 1988----@ 1639-----A 1689------A 1739-d 1789---a 1839----------D 1889--------C 1939--c 1989h 1640----------E 1690---a 1740---a 1790------B 1840---------D 1890----------E 1940-------B 1990o 1641----------E 1691---a 1741-------C 1791---------D 1841---a 1891--------C 1941--------C 1991-----A 1642------A 1692-----A 1742----@ 1792---------D 1842---a 1892--------C 1942----------D 1992-----A 1643-----A 1693---a 1743--------C 1793----------F 1843----@ 1893----@ 1943---------D 1993-------B 1644--------C 1694----@ 1744-----A 1794---b 1844------B 1894-d 1944---------D 1994----@ 1645------B 1695-------B 1745----------D 1795------B 1845-e 1895------A 1945-----A 1995----------E 1646---a 1696------B 1746---------D 1796--c 1846--b 1896-f 1946g 1996-d 1647---------D 1697----------F 1747----------D 1797-------C 1847j 1897--------C 1947--c 1997-----A 1648--c 1698--b 1748--b 1798-d 1848------B 1898-------C 1948-----A 1998--------C 1649--------C 1699-----A 1749----------E 1799------B 1849----------E 1899k 1949---------D PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 DSM01A 1664 1998 .70 .87 .86 .75 .69 .82 .88 .92 .94 .91 .89 .77 .81 2 DSM01B 1664 1998 .76 .89 .89 .85 .70 .77 .93 .94 .95 .88 .87 .85 .84 3 DSM02A 1494 1998 .83 .86 .78 .69 .63 .63 .84 .89 .90 .91 .88 .87 .90 .91 .92 .92 .85 .85 .87 .81 4 DSM02B 1850 1998 .88 .87 .81 .57 .60 5 DSM04A 1708 1998 .71 .83 .76 .79 .82 .85 .90 .75 .74 .84 .88 6 DSM04B 1688 1998 .45 .60 .67 .79 .90 .87 .81 .83 .85 .78 .83 .66 7 DSM05A 1678 1950 .80 .90 .90 .85 .86 .89 .85 .91 .80 .65 .65 8 DSM05B 1678 1960 .75 .84 .89 .87 .90 .91 .82 .82 .89 .83 .78 9 DSM06A 1650 1998 .86 .80 .88 .92 .91 .88 .88 .92 .91 .88 .87 .88 .82 10 DSM06B 1650 1930 .81 .81 .90 .93 .88 .83 .81 .85 .86 .70 .74 11 DSM07A 1593 1980 .58 .72 .87 .87 .85 .88 .95 .94 .91 .84 .83 .86 .83 .76 .60 .59 12 DSM07B 1608 1850 .81 .88 .90 .85 .86 .89 .88 .86 .86 .84 13 DSM08A 1628 1998 .71 .74 .67 .79 .92 .88 .92 .91 .79 .87 .88 .69 .62 .76 14 DSM08B 1628 1998 .65 .71 .62 .76 .94 .91 .90 .90 .88 .89 .87 .76 .76 .83 15 DSM09A 1698 1998 .80 .85 .76 .65 .75 .78 .59 .52 .53 .71 .71 .64 16 DSM09B 1698 1998 .69 .74 .72 .75 .83 .78 .77 .88 .84 .82 .86 .88 17 DSM11A 1551 1998 .55 .59 .73 .85 .76 .79 .89 .88 .85 .88 .86 .81 .90 .84 .77 .77 .77 18 DSM11B 1551 1998 .61 .80 .87 .77 .68 .83 .87 .83 .85 .85 .79 .79 .77 .69 .60 .66 .68 19 DSM12A 1477 1998 .87 .87 .73 .52 .75 .87 .90 .88 .87 .90 .90 .79 .76 .82 .88 .95 .94 .91 .89 .89 20 DSM12B 1477 1998 .86 .86 .73 .56 .79 .89 .87 .87 .80 .83 .90 .87 .88 .81 .65 .88 .87 .83 .87 .69 21 DSM13A 1547 1998 .60 .59 .61 .62 .86 .92 .87 .82 .88 .86 .81 .79 .76 .81 .91 .90 .85 .86 22 DSM13B 1547 1998 .61 .60 .71 .75 .85 .88 .85 .81 .85 .86 .88 .80 .71 .93 .93 .84 .85 .93 23 DSM14A 1833 1998 .77 .87 .84 .86 .88 .83 24 DSM14B 1833 1998 .81 .88 .87 .80 .79 .88 25 DSM17A 1630 1998 .88 .89 .78 .76 .82 .78 .74 .77 .78 .88 .66 .62 .86 .80 26 DSM17B 1630 1998 .77 .87 .85 .87 .83 .76 .73 .75 .84 .89 .81 .82 .80 .90 27 DSM18A 1664 1998 .87 .89 .92 .97 .95 .91 .91 .94 .94 .87 .81 .84 .81 28 DSM18B 1664 1998 .59 .58 .88 .95 .91 .92 .92 .91 .93 .93 .92 .86 .84 29 DSM19A 1621 1998 .88 .89 .93 .81 .78 .89 .89 .86 .86 .86 .83 .75 .79 .78 .72 30 DSM19B 1621 1750 .92 .92 .94 .84 .81 .81 31 DSM19C 1800 1998 .78 .70 .74 .80 .80 .80 .80 32 DSM20A 1612 1998 .80 .87 .93 .91 .90 .93 .85 .87 .92 .92 .94 .93 .91 .92 .94 33 DSM20B 1612 1998 .88 .93 .93 .86 .85 .87 .90 .91 .89 .87 .88 .80 .86 .93 .91 Av segment correlation .85 .86 .69 .59 .68 .80 .84 .83 .80 .84 .87 .84 .85 .85 .82 .87 .83 .80 .80 .80 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== DSM01A 1664 to 1998 335 years Series 1 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .821) is: Lower 1773 -.014 1667 -.009 1780 -.007 1972 -.005 Higher 1820 .009 1990 .005 1703 .004 1899 .003 [D] 13 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1780 -1.363 28 3 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1934 -2.600 30 6 1951 -.343 29 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1963 -.937 28 6 1974 -.040 28 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1667 +4.6 SD; 1773 +5.6 SD; 1774 +3.1 SD; 1780 -7.3 SD; 1820 -5.2 SD; 1934 -5.1 SD; 1972 +4.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM01B 1664 to 1998 335 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .851) is: Lower 1773 -.011 1667 -.007 1775 -.006 1779 -.006 Higher 1977 .009 1820 .006 1899 .004 1703 .004 [D] 12 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1780 -1.363 28 3 1813 -1.612 29 2 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1864 -1.045 31 5 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1963 -.937 28 6 1970 -.627 28 3 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1667 +4.1 SD; 1773 +4.8 SD; 1780 -6.4 SD; 1970 -5.3 SD; 1990 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM02A 1494 to 1998 505 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .793) is: Lower 1611 -.040 1566 -.016 1972 -.004 1931 -.003 Higher 1977 .005 1820 .004 1703 .004 1899 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1610 1611 -5.1 SD 1611 1612 5.5 SD [D] 19 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1611 -.347 9 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1626 -2.129 13 4 1654 -3.290 19 3 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1770 -1.905 28 2 1773 -2.592 28 12 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1931 -.741 30 1 1934 -2.600 30 6 1972 -.757 28 1 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1566 -9.2 SD; 1611-14.6 SD; 1613 +3.5 SD; 1622 +3.2 SD; 1626 -6.5 SD; 1931 -4.6 SD; 1972 -5.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM02B 1850 to 1998 149 years Series 4 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .736) is: Lower 1956 -.029 1963 -.014 1984 -.010 1990 -.008 Higher 1899 .014 1904 .009 1934 .008 1924 .007 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1896 -1.539 31 3 1899 -2.630 31 20 1934 -2.600 30 6 1956 -1.134 29 3 1974 -.040 28 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1977 -4.299 28 19 1984 .109 27 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1934 -5.5 SD; 1956 -7.7 SD; 1963 +3.7 SD; 1977 +3.3 SD; 1990 +4.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM04A 1708 to 1998 291 years Series 5 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .818) is: Lower 1780 -.008 1911 -.005 1753 -.004 1906 -.004 Higher 1977 .015 1735 .005 1773 .005 1800 .004 [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1710 +3.3 SD; 1753 +3.8 SD; 1780 +4.1 SD; 1808 -4.8 SD; 1820 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM04B 1688 to 1998 311 years Series 6 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .782) is: Lower 1990 -.010 1696 -.006 1755 -.006 1926 -.006 Higher 1977 .019 1899 .007 1735 .007 1773 .006 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1773 -2.592 28 12 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 7 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1704 +3.0 SD; 1753 +3.8 SD; 1755 +4.1 SD; 1977 -5.0 SD; 1990 +5.7 SD; 1991 +3.0 SD; 1996 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM05A 1678 to 1950 273 years Series 7 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .838) is: Lower 1922 -.005 1919 -.005 1701 -.004 1679 -.003 Higher 1820 .006 1703 .006 1800 .004 1899 .003 [D] 3 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1820 -7.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM05B 1678 to 1960 283 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .860) is: Lower 1872 -.004 1707 -.004 1789 -.003 1682 -.003 Higher 1820 .008 1703 .005 1773 .004 1800 .003 [D] 9 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1953 -1.022 29 1 1956 -1.134 29 3 1959 -1.174 29 5 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1820 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM06A 1650 to 1998 349 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .887) is: Lower 1808 -.004 1989 -.002 1979 -.002 1804 -.002 Higher 1820 .005 1977 .005 1899 .003 1654 .003 [D] 7 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1961 -1.425 28 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 1989 -2.116 27 1 1990 -3.827 27 2 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1670 -5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM06B 1650 to 1930 281 years Series 10 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .853) is: Lower 1902 -.008 1904 -.004 1800 -.004 1792 -.003 Higher 1899 .005 1735 .004 1820 .003 1773 .003 [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1800 -2.362 29 1 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1904 -2.310 31 5 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1800 -6.2 SD; 1902 +4.0 SD; 1904 -6.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM07A 1593 to 1980 388 years Series 11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .836) is: Lower 1611 -.014 1600 -.009 1607 -.007 1949 -.005 Higher 1977 .011 1820 .007 1670 .005 1735 .003 [D] 19 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1607 -.994 8 2 1611 -.347 9 2 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1773 -2.592 28 12 1782 -1.347 28 3 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1896 -1.539 31 3 1899 -2.630 31 20 1904 -2.310 31 5 1934 -2.600 30 6 1956 -1.134 29 3 1959 -1.174 29 5 1961 -1.425 28 5 1963 -.937 28 6 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1600 +3.8 SD; 1607 -5.8 SD; 1611 -7.8 SD; 1951 +3.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM07B 1608 to 1850 243 years Series 12 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .873) is: Lower 1710 -.005 1612 -.005 1626 -.004 1811 -.004 Higher 1735 .005 1820 .005 1670 .004 1703 .003 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1773 -2.592 28 12 1813 -1.612 29 2 1820 -3.783 29 17 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1773 -5.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM08A 1628 to 1998 371 years Series 13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .796) is: Lower 1847 -.011 1934 -.005 1687 -.004 1647 -.003 Higher 1820 .008 1990 .006 1899 .004 1773 .004 [D] 8 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1773 -2.592 28 12 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1951 -.343 29 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1959 -1.174 29 5 1961 -1.425 28 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1847 -9.6 SD; 1934 +3.5 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM08B 1628 to 1998 371 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .830) is: Lower 1703 -.011 1650 -.005 1951 -.005 1927 -.003 Higher 1977 .012 1820 .006 1990 .004 1670 .004 [D] 10 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1670 -3.527 23 3 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1896 -1.539 31 3 1899 -2.630 31 20 1951 -.343 29 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1961 -1.425 28 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1650 +3.4 SD; 1703 +5.0 SD; 1800 -5.0 SD; 1820 -5.8 SD; 1927 +3.1 SD; 1951 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM09A 1698 to 1998 301 years Series 15 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .690) is: Lower 1899 -.009 1882 -.009 1698 -.006 1871 -.006 Higher 1977 .009 1703 .009 1820 .009 1735 .005 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1847 -2.453 31 20 1864 -1.045 31 5 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1996 -.975 27 1 [E] Outliers 11 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1698 +3.5 SD; 1761 +3.4 SD; 1829 +3.3 SD; 1871 +4.6 SD; 1882 +4.1 SD; 1899 +4.9 SD; 1924 +4.5 SD; 1934 -7.1 SD; 1947 -5.5 SD; 1961 -5.7 SD; 1970 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM09B 1698 to 1998 301 years Series 16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .809) is: Lower 1887 -.009 1772 -.006 1770 -.006 1698 -.006 Higher 1977 .008 1990 .006 1820 .004 1773 .004 [D] 5 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1773 -2.592 28 12 1882 -2.121 31 11 1887 .371 31 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1706 +3.0 SD; 1729 -5.9 SD; 1770 +3.8 SD; 1919 +3.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM11A 1551 to 1998 448 years Series 17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .743) is: Lower 1566 -.052 1973 -.004 1556 -.004 1610 -.004 Higher 1820 .010 1670 .006 1990 .005 1703 .005 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1565 1566 -4.7 SD 1566 1567 5.1 SD [D] 2 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1879 -1.794 31 22 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1566-15.9 SD; 1573 +3.6 SD; 1931 +3.1 SD; 1977 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM11B 1551 to 1998 448 years Series 18 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .686) is: Lower 1566 -.058 1552 -.008 1932 -.007 1991 -.007 Higher 1899 .007 1773 .005 1632 .005 1847 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1565 1566 -6.6 SD 1566 1567 6.2 SD [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1847 -2.453 31 20 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1951 -.343 29 4 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1991 .194 27 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow [E] Outliers 10 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1552 -5.6 SD; 1566-16.4 SD; 1670 +3.9 SD; 1879 +3.7 SD; 1932 -4.8 SD; 1936 +3.3 SD; 1951 -5.0 SD; 1977 +4.3 SD; 1990 +5.0 SD; 1991 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM12A 1477 to 1998 522 years Series 19 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .843) is: Lower 1566 -.022 1583 -.004 1547 -.004 1584 -.004 Higher 1977 .006 1820 .005 1500 .004 1899 .003 [D] 17 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1583 -.594 7 1 1626 -2.129 13 4 1632 -2.972 17 3 1654 -3.290 19 3 1670 -3.527 23 3 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1755 -2.175 28 1 1780 -1.363 28 3 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1899 -2.630 31 20 1961 -1.425 28 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1547 +4.0 SD; 1566 -8.5 SD; 1583 -5.0 SD; 1584 +3.5 SD; 1780 -8.0 SD; 1820 -5.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM12B 1477 to 1998 522 years Series 20 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .803) is: Lower 1707 -.023 1566 -.011 1989 -.008 1703 -.004 Higher 1977 .008 1500 .004 1654 .004 1820 .003 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1707 1708 4.2 SD [D] 15 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1585 -2.175 7 3 1626 -2.129 13 4 1632 -2.972 17 3 1654 -3.290 19 3 1670 -3.527 23 3 1707 -.587 28 1 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1773 -2.592 28 12 1856 -.474 31 1 1858 -.670 31 1 1861 -1.132 31 2 1864 -1.045 31 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 8 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1547 +3.2 SD; 1566 -7.0 SD; 1583 +3.1 SD; 1703 +3.4 SD; 1707-12.6 SD; 1847 +3.4 SD; 1923 -4.8 SD; 1989 +5.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM13A 1547 to 1998 452 years Series 21 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .785) is: Lower 1566 -.050 1607 -.009 1855 -.004 1611 -.004 Higher 1820 .008 1977 .007 1990 .004 1773 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1565 1566 -5.1 SD 1566 1567 4.6 SD [D] 15 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1584 -1.702 7 1 1585 -2.175 7 3 1607 -.994 8 2 1626 -2.129 13 4 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1773 -2.592 28 12 1820 -3.783 29 17 1855 -.231 31 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 6 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1566-14.2 SD; 1607 -8.9 SD; 1611 +3.6 SD; 1626 -4.7 SD; 1847 +3.3 SD; 1855 -4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM13B 1547 to 1998 452 years Series 22 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .828) is: Lower 1566 -.016 1825 -.009 1600 -.006 1704 -.002 Higher 1977 .008 1820 .006 1735 .004 1990 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1990 1991 4.3 SD [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1566 -.042 7 7 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1585 -2.175 7 3 1632 -2.972 17 3 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1566 -6.8 SD; 1600 -4.9 SD; 1825 -7.4 SD; 1990 -4.8 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM14A 1833 to 1998 166 years Series 23 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .826) is: Lower 1837 -.017 1977 -.010 1918 -.006 1857 -.003 Higher 1934 .006 1899 .006 1847 .004 1989 .003 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1837 -5.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM14B 1833 to 1998 166 years Series 24 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .848) is: Lower 1973 -.009 1918 -.006 1842 -.006 1970 -.006 Higher 1977 .024 1990 .009 1899 .008 1882 .004 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1977 -5.1 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM17A 1630 to 1998 369 years Series 25 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .803) is: Lower 1924 -.017 1919 -.008 1808 -.004 1909 -.004 Higher 1820 .009 1977 .005 1899 .005 1670 .005 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1924 1925 4.4 SD [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1924 -2.208 31 1 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1919 +5.1 SD; 1924-10.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM17B 1630 to 1998 369 years Series 26 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .841) is: Lower 1638 -.004 1632 -.004 1635 -.004 1807 -.003 Higher 1977 .008 1820 .005 1703 .004 1899 .004 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1976 1977 -4.3 SD 1977 1978 4.6 SD 1990 1991 5.0 SD [D] 11 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1773 -2.592 28 12 1782 -1.347 28 3 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1899 -2.630 31 20 1934 -2.600 30 6 1959 -1.174 29 5 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1632 +3.2 SD; 1638 +3.7 SD; 1801 +3.1 SD; 1977 -4.7 SD; 1990 -8.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM18A 1664 to 1998 335 years Series 27 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .907) is: Lower 1913 -.003 1989 -.003 1908 -.002 1988 -.002 Higher 1977 .007 1990 .003 1899 .002 1685 .002 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1904 -2.310 31 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 =================================================================================================================================== DSM18B 1664 to 1998 335 years Series 28 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .869) is: Lower 1685 -.009 1709 -.004 1684 -.004 1697 -.003 Higher 1820 .005 1977 .004 1800 .002 1735 .002 [D] 6 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1963 -.937 28 6 1970 -.627 28 3 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 5 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1684 +3.5 SD; 1685 +4.9 SD; 1709 +3.5 SD; 1820 -5.1 SD; 1847 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM19A 1621 to 1998 378 years Series 29 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .837) is: Lower 1917 -.007 1959 -.004 1707 -.004 1706 -.004 Higher 1899 .004 1654 .004 1670 .003 1685 .003 [D] 14 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1761 -.959 28 1 1773 -2.592 28 12 1782 -1.347 28 3 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1864 -1.045 31 5 1879 -1.794 31 22 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1963 -.937 28 6 1970 -.627 28 3 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 4 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1632 -6.6 SD; 1707 -4.9 SD; 1917 -5.0 SD; 1963 -4.9 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM19B 1621 to 1750 130 years Series 30 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .901) is: Lower 1706 -.006 1641 -.005 1717 -.005 1716 -.004 Higher 1670 .008 1654 .008 1735 .007 1632 .006 [D] 4 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1722 -1.501 29 1 1729 -2.627 29 7 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 =================================================================================================================================== DSM19C 1800 to 1998 199 years Series 31 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .832) is: Lower 1837 -.014 1928 -.005 1860 -.004 1852 -.004 Higher 1820 .011 1899 .007 1934 .005 1990 .004 [D] 14 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1820 -3.783 29 17 1837 .188 31 1 >> WARNING: Ring is not usually narrow 1845 -1.369 31 1 1864 -1.045 31 5 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1904 -2.310 31 5 1934 -2.600 30 6 1959 -1.174 29 5 1963 -.937 28 6 1977 -4.299 28 19 1990 -3.827 27 2 [E] Outliers 2 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1837 -5.2 SD; 1990 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM20A 1612 to 1998 387 years Series 32 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .910) is: Lower 1626 -.004 1798 -.003 1612 -.003 1622 -.002 Higher 1820 .004 1670 .002 1899 .002 1990 .002 [D] 11 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1736 -1.796 29 9 1770 -1.905 28 2 1773 -2.592 28 12 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1654 -5.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== DSM20B 1612 to 1998 387 years Series 33 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .902) is: Lower 1911 -.003 1755 -.002 1729 -.002 1612 -.002 Higher 1820 .004 1977 .003 1899 .002 1735 .002 [D] 11 Absent rings: Year Master N series Absent 1735 -2.440 29 17 1773 -2.592 28 12 1820 -3.783 29 17 1847 -2.453 31 20 1861 -1.132 31 2 1879 -1.794 31 22 1882 -2.121 31 11 1883 -2.158 31 20 1899 -2.630 31 20 1904 -2.310 31 5 1977 -4.299 28 19 [E] Outliers 3 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1755 -5.1 SD; 1904 -5.0 SD; 1989 -5.3 SD =================================================================================================================================== [*] All segments correlate highest as dated with correlation with master series over .3281 PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Deer Springs 16:11 Tue 23 Dec 2003 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 DSM01A 1664 1998 335 13 0 .821 .42 1.15 .213 .443 .518 2.53 .346 -.023 1 2 DSM01B 1664 1998 335 13 0 .851 .48 1.17 .216 .377 .517 2.51 .406 .001 1 3 DSM02A 1494 1998 505 20 0 .793 .44 1.33 .245 .552 .496 2.36 .262 -.031 1 4 DSM02B 1850 1998 149 5 0 .736 .24 .47 .115 .309 .545 2.38 .404 -.059 1 5 DSM04A 1708 1998 291 11 0 .818 .60 2.04 .362 .681 .424 2.55 .353 -.008 1 6 DSM04B 1688 1998 311 12 0 .782 .56 1.59 .302 .629 .428 2.48 .324 -.030 1 7 DSM05A 1678 1950 273 11 0 .838 .59 2.00 .361 .761 .374 2.39 .293 -.038 1 8 DSM05B 1678 1960 283 11 0 .860 .53 1.58 .355 .762 .466 2.48 .338 -.022 1 9 DSM06A 1650 1998 349 13 0 .887 .53 1.82 .352 .772 .463 2.63 .434 -.003 1 10 DSM06B 1650 1930 281 11 0 .853 .56 2.13 .452 .825 .463 2.59 .379 -.011 1 11 DSM07A 1593 1980 388 16 0 .836 .43 1.60 .342 .743 .535 2.48 .361 -.037 1 12 DSM07B 1608 1850 243 10 0 .873 .41 1.20 .231 .666 .438 2.61 .418 -.007 1 13 DSM08A 1628 1998 371 14 0 .796 .43 1.27 .226 .681 .407 2.43 .312 .006 1 14 DSM08B 1628 1998 371 14 0 .830 .35 .95 .168 .476 .463 2.62 .344 -.018 1 15 DSM09A 1698 1998 301 12 0 .690 .61 1.52 .309 .710 .359 2.51 .389 -.042 1 16 DSM09B 1698 1998 301 12 0 .809 .38 .88 .181 .640 .398 2.51 .373 -.002 1 17 DSM11A 1551 1998 448 17 0 .743 .49 .99 .188 .650 .297 2.34 .254 -.014 1 18 DSM11B 1551 1998 448 17 0 .686 .43 1.24 .213 .669 .377 2.39 .233 -.027 1 19 DSM12A 1477 1998 522 20 0 .843 .33 1.35 .206 .698 .471 2.43 .344 -.034 1 20 DSM12B 1477 1998 522 20 0 .803 .31 1.36 .186 .670 .451 2.51 .312 -.009 1 21 DSM13A 1547 1998 452 18 0 .785 .31 .79 .136 .516 .415 2.32 .263 -.010 1 22 DSM13B 1547 1998 452 18 0 .828 .37 .85 .152 .539 .362 2.49 .373 -.011 3 23 DSM14A 1833 1998 166 6 0 .826 1.07 3.04 .579 .758 .351 2.50 .422 .016 1 24 DSM14B 1833 1998 166 6 0 .848 1.15 2.63 .514 .692 .324 2.49 .339 -.044 1 25 DSM17A 1630 1998 369 14 0 .803 .40 1.27 .212 .547 .446 2.46 .286 -.013 1 26 DSM17B 1630 1998 369 14 0 .841 .43 1.46 .237 .660 .456 2.49 .309 -.019 1 27 DSM18A 1664 1998 335 13 0 .907 .47 1.48 .278 .697 .444 2.54 .379 -.013 1 28 DSM18B 1664 1998 335 13 0 .869 .58 4.04 .425 .769 .450 2.59 .342 -.021 1 29 DSM19A 1621 1998 378 15 0 .837 .43 1.69 .323 .722 .571 2.53 .381 .006 1 30 DSM19B 1621 1750 130 6 0 .901 .59 1.57 .289 .548 .460 2.51 .502 .037 1 31 DSM19C 1800 1998 199 7 0 .832 .28 .62 .138 .174 .619 2.48 .379 -.022 1 32 DSM20A 1612 1998 387 15 0 .910 .47 2.29 .290 .694 .472 2.59 .388 .000 1 33 DSM20B 1612 1998 387 15 0 .902 .44 1.72 .273 .679 .503 2.61 .409 -.027 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 11152 432 0 .822 .46 4.04 .262 .634 .447 2.63 .343 -.016 - = [ COFECHA DEER COF ] = -