Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin - WI006 Additional Site Information J.J. Wolf M. Stanton C. Eckert Purpose of Collection: Event - fire Detrend method: Smoothing spline. Cores are available at: Most of the samples are at University of Wisconsin Parkside. Several were donated off campus. The samples were obtained from the Wisconsin DNR. The trees had already been cut down for industrial development, so field data was limited. Reference: Wolf, Joy J. 2004. A 200 year oak savanna fire history in southeastern Wisconsin. American Midland Naturalist, Vol 152. [] Dendrochronology Program Library Run FIN2 Program COF 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 1 [] [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 6.02P 25444 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS Title of run: fin2 File of DATED series: c:/PlPr2004Final.txt CONTENTS: Part 1: Title page, options selected, summary, absent rings by series Part 2: Histogram of time spans Part 3: Master series with sample depth and absent rings by year Part 4: Bar plot of Master Dating Series Part 5: Correlation by segment of each series with Master Part 6: Potential problems: low correlation, divergent year-to-year changes, absent rings, outliers Part 7: Descriptive statistics RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering 32 years 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing 5 CORRELATION is Pearson (parametric, quantitative) Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 6 Master dating series saved N 7 Ring measurements listed N 8 Parts printed 1234567 9 Absent rings are omitted from master series and segment correlations (Y) Time span of Master dating series is 1807 to 2000 194 years Continuous time span is 1807 to 2000 194 years Portion with two or more series is 1807 to 2000 194 years **************************************** *C* Number of dated series 15 *C* *O* Master series 1807 2000 194 yrs *O* *F* Total rings in all series 2500 *F* *E* Total dated rings checked 2500 *E* *C* Series intercorrelation .463 *C* *H* Average mean sensitivity .271 *H* *A* Segments, possible problems 25 *A* *** Mean length of series 166.7 *** **************************************** ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) No ring measurements of zero value PART 2: TIME PLOT OF TREE-RING SERIES: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg End 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Ident Seq year year Yrs : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------- --- ---- ---- ---- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> PlPr01 1 1807 2000 194 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr02 2 1849 2000 152 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> PlPr03 3 1807 2000 194 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr04 4 1847 2000 154 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> PlPr05 5 1815 2000 186 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr06 6 1849 2000 152 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<=============> PlPr07 7 1861 2000 140 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <==============> PLPr08 8 1850 2000 151 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr09 9 1849 2000 152 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr10 10 1841 2000 160 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===================> PlPr11 11 1807 2000 194 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr12 12 1844 2000 157 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<==================> PlPr13 13 1817 2000 184 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <===============> PlPr15 14 1842 2000 159 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <================> PlPr17 15 1830 2000 171 PART 3: Master Dating Series: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 1850 .924 14 1900 -1.334 15 1950 1.410 15 1851 1.216 14 1901 -.397 15 1951 1.087 15 1852 .805 14 1902 .309 15 1952 .464 15 1853 1.660 14 1903 .860 15 1953 .687 15 1854 1.219 14 1904 -.848 15 1954 -.462 15 1855 -.645 14 1905 1.123 15 1955 -.945 15 1856 -.172 14 1906 .802 15 1956 -2.075 15 1807 .634 3 1857 -.091 14 1907 .897 15 1957 -1.074 15 1808 .288 3 1858 -.517 14 1908 1.084 15 1958 .336 15 1809 .248 3 1859 -2.537 14 1909 1.344 15 1959 .226 15 1810 1.739 3 1860 -1.654 14 1910 -1.915 15 1960 .662 15 1811 -2.482 3 1861 -.691 15 1911 -1.638 15 1961 .216 15 1812 -1.490 3 1862 .680 15 1912 1.804 15 1962 .554 15 1813 -1.593 3 1863 .244 15 1913 .530 15 1963 -.292 15 1814 -.244 3 1864 -.339 15 1914 -.340 15 1964 1.635 15 1815 -.447 4 1865 -.688 15 1915 -.980 15 1965 .740 15 1816 .524 4 1866 .466 15 1916 -.815 15 1966 -.181 15 1817 .287 5 1867 .411 15 1917 -.512 15 1967 .169 15 1818 .105 5 1868 -.840 15 1918 -1.220 15 1968 .152 15 1819 2.264 5 1869 .261 15 1919 -.529 15 1969 .677 15 1820 .129 5 1870 -.957 15 1920 1.291 15 1970 -.368 15 1821 -.523 5 1871 .720 15 1921 1.132 15 1971 .193 15 1822 -.403 5 1872 -.624 15 1922 1.385 15 1972 .809 15 1823 -.098 5 1873 .281 15 1923 1.025 15 1973 -.379 15 1824 1.414 5 1874 -.432 15 1924 1.411 15 1974 -1.031 15 1825 .538 5 1875 .707 15 1925 .126 15 1975 .275 15 1826 -.068 5 1876 .744 15 1926 -.941 15 1976 -2.002 15 1827 .186 5 1877 .160 15 1927 -.195 15 1977 -.527 15 1828 -.669 5 1878 .164 15 1928 -.723 15 1978 .834 15 1829 .681 5 1879 -.815 15 1929 -.894 15 1979 .275 15 1830 .440 6 1880 1.447 15 1930 -2.658 15 1980 .265 15 1831 -.123 6 1881 1.002 15 1931 -.706 15 1981 -.702 15 1832 -.415 6 1882 1.209 15 1932 .458 15 1982 .854 15 1833 -1.399 6 1883 -.471 15 1933 .919 15 1983 .704 15 1834 -2.108 6 1884 1.182 15 1934 -.970 15 1984 1.290 15 1835 -.987 6 1885 1.720 15 1935 .244 15 1985 -.449 15 1836 -1.286 6 1886 -.344 15 1936 .029 15 1986 .929 15 1837 -.374 6 1887 -2.197 15 1937 1.001 15 1987 .045 15 1838 .474 6 1888 .054 15 1938 .450 15 1988 -4.066 15 1839 .904 6 1889 -.365 15 1939 -.274 15 1989 -.288 15 1840 .846 6 1890 -.154 15 1940 .738 15 1990 .461 15 1841 1.018 7 1891 1.427 15 1941 .996 15 1991 -.002 15 1842 .774 8 1892 -.492 15 1942 .346 15 1992 1.070 15 1843 .783 8 1893 .403 15 1943 .041 15 1993 1.716 15 1844 -.069 9 1894 -1.758 15 1944 .784 15 1994 -.642 15 1845 -1.205 9 1895 -1.297 15 1945 .889 15 1995 -1.209 15 1846 -.249 9 1896 .103 15 1946 -.013 15 1996 -.805 15 1847 .380 10 1897 -.209 15 1947 -.491 15 1997 -.294 15 1848 -.298 10 1898 -.585 15 1948 -2.952 15 1998 .974 15 1849 -.316 13 1899 .052 15 1949 -1.280 15 1999 .196 15 PART 3: Master Dating Series: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab Year Value No Ab ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ ------------------ 2000 .301 15 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PART 4: Master Bar Plot: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 1850---------D 1900-e 1950----------F 1851---------E 1901---b 1951---------D 1852--------C 1902------A 1952-------B 1853----------G 1903--------C 1953--------C 1854---------E 1904-c 1954---b 1855--c 1905---------D 1955-d 1856----a 1906--------C 1956h 1807-------C 1857----@ 1907--------D 1957-d 1808------A 1858--b 1908---------D 1958------A 1809------A 1859j 1909----------E 1959------A 1810----------G 1860g 1910h 1960-------C 1811j 1861--c 1911g 1961------A 1812f 1862--------C 1912----------G 1962-------B 1813f 1863------A 1913-------B 1963---a 1814----a 1864---a 1914---a 1964----------G 1815---b 1865--c 1915-d 1965--------C 1816-------B 1866-------B 1916-c 1966----a 1817------A 1867-------B 1917--b 1967-----A 1818-----@ 1868-c 1918-e 1968-----A 1819----------I 1869------A 1919--b 1969--------C 1820-----A 1870-d 1920----------E 1970---a 1821--b 1871--------C 1921---------E 1971-----A 1822---b 1872--b 1922----------F 1972--------C 1823----@ 1873------A 1923---------D 1973---b 1824----------F 1874---b 1924----------F 1974-d 1825-------B 1875--------C 1925-----A 1975------A 1826----@ 1876--------C 1926-d 1976h 1827-----A 1877-----A 1927----a 1977--b 1828--c 1878-----A 1928--c 1978--------C 1829--------C 1879-c 1929-d 1979------A 1830-------B 1880----------F 1930k 1980------A 1831----@ 1881---------D 1931--c 1981--c 1832---b 1882---------E 1932-------B 1982--------C 1833-f 1883---b 1933---------D 1983--------C 1834h 1884---------E 1934-d 1984----------E 1835-d 1885----------G 1935------A 1985---b 1836-e 1886---a 1936-----@ 1986---------D 1837---a 1887i 1937---------D 1987-----@ 1838-------B 1888-----@ 1938-------B 1988p 1839--------D 1889---a 1939----a 1989---a 1840--------C 1890----a 1940--------C 1990-------B 1841---------D 1891----------F 1941---------D 1991-----@ 1842--------C 1892---b 1942------A 1992---------D 1843--------C 1893------B 1943-----@ 1993----------G 1844----@ 1894g 1944--------C 1994--c 1845-e 1895-e 1945--------D 1995-e 1846----a 1896-----@ 1946-----@ 1996--c 1847------B 1897----a 1947---b 1997---a 1848---a 1898--b 1948l 1998---------D 1849---a 1899-----@ 1949-e 1999-----A PART 4: Master Bar Plot: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value Year Rel value 2000------A PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position Seq Series Time_span 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 PlPr01 1807 2000 .38 .45B .50 .59 .49 .47 .50 .49 2 PlPr02 1849 2000 .69 .67 .72 .67 .48 .61 .59 3 PlPr03 1807 2000 .51 .41 .38 .57 .64 .53 .61 .61 4 PlPr04 1847 2000 .32B .30B .47 .51 .52 .40 .37 5 PlPr05 1815 2000 .17B .07B .43 .62 .64 .48 .43 .44 6 PlPr06 1849 2000 .62 .64 .52 .31A .31B .69 .67 7 PlPr07 1861 2000 .60 .64 .61 .32A .38 .44 8 PLPr08 1850 2000 .55 .51 .49 .46 .48 .47 9 PlPr09 1849 2000 .60 .60 .58 .55 .51 .69 .68 10 PlPr10 1841 2000 .47 .43 .48 .47 .29A .31A .28A 11 PlPr11 1807 2000 .34 .20B .04B .19B .37 .48B .39 .39 12 PlPr12 1844 2000 .19B .27B .31A .44 .38 .27A .25A 13 PlPr13 1817 2000 .18B .24B .39 .61 .67 .51 .51 .47 14 PlPr15 1842 2000 .46 .46 .48 .72 .62 .57 .56 15 PlPr17 1830 2000 .14B .43 .46 .42 .38 .26A .27A Av segment correlation .32 .37 .45 .52 .53 .45 .47 .47 PART 6: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For each series with potential problems the following diagnostics may appear: [A] Correlations with master dating series of flagged 50-year segments of series filtered with 32-year spline, at every point from ten years earlier (-10) to ten years later (+10) than dated [B] Effect of those data values which most lower or raise correlation with master series [C] Year-to-year changes very different from the mean change in other series [D] Absent rings (zero values) [E] Values which are statistical outliers from mean for the year =================================================================================================================================== PlPr01 1807 to 2000 194 years Series 1 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1825 1874 -2 .05 -.03 -.26 -.37 -.19 .03 .18 .22 .52* .32 .45| .08 .10 -.03 -.04 -.30 -.34 -.10 -.24 .13 .03 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .468) is: Lower 1976 -.014 1926 -.010 1892 -.008 1861 -.008 Higher 1910 .020 1887 .012 1956 .009 1912 .008 1825 to 1874 segment: Lower 1859 -.043 1861 -.035 1838 -.029 1826 -.027 Higher 1860 .039 1845 .016 1836 .015 1854 .014 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr02 1849 to 2000 152 years Series 2 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .639) is: Lower 1956 -.015 1958 -.015 1970 -.014 1952 -.012 Higher 1988 .061 1859 .013 1930 .009 1910 .008 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr03 1807 to 2000 194 years Series 3 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .536) is: Lower 1976 -.032 1981 -.010 1871 -.009 1930 -.007 Higher 1988 .061 1910 .016 1948 .012 1819 .009 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1976 +3.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PlPr04 1847 to 2000 154 years Series 4 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1847 1896 4 -.03 .18 .08 .25 -.14 -.06 -.14 -.13 -.08 -.24 .32| .08 -.07 -.03 .40* .06 .09 -.11 .10 -.01 -.10 1850 1899 4 -.08 .15 .04 .24 -.16 -.08 -.15 -.16 -.07 -.24 .30| .07 -.10 -.09 .37* .04 .06 -.12 .13 .02 -.04 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .401) is: Lower 1988 -.029 1854 -.023 1851 -.022 1932 -.017 Higher 1948 .049 1930 .026 1859 .015 1894 .015 1847 to 1896 segment: Lower 1854 -.071 1851 -.068 1858 -.034 1887 -.029 Higher 1894 .060 1859 .060 1880 .026 1884 .020 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1854 -.070 1851 -.068 1858 -.033 1887 -.028 Higher 1859 .061 1894 .060 1880 .027 1884 .021 [C] Year-to-year changes diverging by over 4.0 std deviations: 1988 1989 -4.6 SD =================================================================================================================================== PlPr05 1815 to 2000 186 years Series 5 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1815 1864 6 - - -.10 -.16 -.19 -.19 -.04 -.33 -.24 -.08 .17| .17 .04 .08 -.13 .08 .21*-.08 -.05 .08 .13 1825 1874 9 .12 .06 -.05 -.14 -.14 -.16 -.07 -.24 -.23 -.02 .07| .11 .07 .08 -.09 .03 .13 -.06 -.06 .14* .13 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .437) is: Lower 1985 -.022 1849 -.021 1860 -.013 1880 -.011 Higher 1988 .039 1930 .016 1910 .013 1819 .011 1815 to 1864 segment: Lower 1849 -.047 1860 -.042 1839 -.032 1854 -.030 Higher 1859 .077 1819 .070 1824 .030 1833 .026 1825 to 1874 segment: Lower 1860 -.041 1849 -.039 1839 -.031 1854 -.030 Higher 1859 .087 1851 .031 1850 .030 1833 .028 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1985 -5.0 SD =================================================================================================================================== PlPr06 1849 to 2000 152 years Series 6 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1900 1949 0 .12 .18 -.05 -.14 .00 -.01 -.16 -.35 -.36 -.03 .31*-.05 .04 -.07 .16 .14 .09 .04 .06 .11 -.24 1925 1974 -9 .06 .51* .15 -.01 -.05 -.07 -.22 -.21 -.08 .03 .31|-.09 .08 -.22 .03 .14 -.01 -.22 .25 .13 -.33 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .537) is: Lower 1909 -.029 1948 -.021 1900 -.011 1940 -.010 Higher 1988 .076 1859 .022 1976 .016 1887 .014 1900 to 1949 segment: Lower 1909 -.086 1948 -.031 1940 -.029 1900 -.028 Higher 1910 .072 1934 .036 1920 .030 1911 .025 1925 to 1974 segment: Lower 1948 -.041 1940 -.037 1973 -.026 1968 -.024 Higher 1934 .044 1950 .038 1964 .026 1956 .022 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr07 1861 to 2000 140 years Series 7 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1925 1974 0 -.08 -.03 -.01 -.23 -.31 -.32 -.18 -.25 -.05 .01 .32* .13 -.15 .06 .19 .23 .18 .22 .16 .19 .11 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .488) is: Lower 1950 -.020 1934 -.018 1955 -.012 1867 -.010 Higher 1930 .016 1988 .014 1910 .014 1887 .012 1925 to 1974 segment: Lower 1950 -.063 1934 -.057 1955 -.039 1931 -.020 Higher 1930 .084 1948 .062 1964 .052 1956 .016 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1887 -4.7 SD =================================================================================================================================== PLPr08 1850 to 2000 151 years Series 8 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .499) is: Lower 1949 -.011 1897 -.011 1960 -.010 1911 -.009 Higher 1887 .019 1956 .014 1859 .013 1976 .010 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr09 1849 to 2000 152 years Series 9 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .614) is: Lower 1937 -.017 1936 -.010 1973 -.009 1963 -.009 Higher 1948 .024 1988 .024 1859 .018 1976 .015 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr10 1841 to 2000 160 years Series 10 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1925 1974 0 -.03 -.06 -.26 -.19 -.04 .15 -.05 -.04 .05 .05 .29* .10 -.07 .22 .17 -.25 -.03 .06 .06 -.01 -.16 1950 1999 0 -.04 .18 -.08 -.08 .02 -.10 -.20 .06 -.11 -.04 .31* .07 - - - - - - - - - 1951 2000 0 -.07 .15 -.07 -.05 -.03 -.15 -.21 .08 .00 -.01 .28* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .403) is: Lower 1934 -.028 1862 -.015 1956 -.015 1951 -.015 Higher 1948 .041 1930 .031 1988 .026 1976 .023 1925 to 1974 segment: Lower 1934 -.085 1956 -.048 1951 -.043 1926 -.021 Higher 1948 .168 1930 .128 1950 .036 1964 .025 1950 to 1999 segment: Lower 1956 -.043 1951 -.039 1986 -.021 1997 -.021 Higher 1988 .114 1976 .085 1950 .030 1993 .025 1951 to 2000 segment: Lower 1956 -.043 1951 -.040 1986 -.021 1997 -.021 Higher 1988 .128 1976 .090 1993 .028 1964 .025 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1934 +3.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== PlPr11 1807 to 2000 194 years Series 11 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1825 1874 -1 -.09 -.07 -.12 -.17 -.26 -.17 -.12 .09 .13 .28* .20| .11 .24 .03 .09 -.19 -.04 -.10 -.14 .13 .04 1850 1899 2 .10 .15 -.18 -.01 -.17 -.03 -.20 .09 .23 .02 .04|-.02 .44*-.13 -.03 -.03 .14 -.15 -.07 .20 -.03 1875 1924 -9 .06 .25*-.19 .04 .09 .05 -.03 .20 -.16 -.01 .19| .04 .02 -.12 -.19 -.13 .11 .00 -.10 .03 .08 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1925 1974 -1 .07 -.04 .13 -.15 -.07 -.30 -.32 -.11 .06 .50* .48| .20 -.10 -.02 -.15 .04 .02 .11 .00 .00 -.17 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .302) is: Lower 1922 -.014 1894 -.014 1807 -.012 1853 -.010 Higher 1811 .018 1819 .014 1859 .014 1976 .014 1825 to 1874 segment: Lower 1853 -.052 1866 -.044 1865 -.043 1860 -.023 Higher 1859 .085 1834 .039 1836 .025 1851 .024 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1894 -.049 1853 -.039 1865 -.036 1866 -.034 Higher 1859 .102 1891 .052 1851 .024 1871 .020 1875 to 1924 segment: Lower 1922 -.054 1894 -.052 1885 -.031 1879 -.029 Higher 1912 .040 1891 .034 1904 .023 1910 .020 1925 to 1974 segment: Lower 1948 -.046 1934 -.043 1931 -.020 1940 -.014 Higher 1956 .046 1964 .014 1930 .014 1951 .014 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1994 -5.4 SD =================================================================================================================================== PlPr12 1844 to 2000 157 years Series 12 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1844 1893 1 .14 -.17 -.09 -.30 -.02 .00 -.09 .12 .23 .27 .19| .28*-.24 -.08 .02 .02 -.29 -.16 .23 -.12 -.11 1850 1899 -1 .05 -.09 .10 -.26 -.01 .06 -.11 .17 .19 .38* .27| .20 -.19 .01 .01 .10 -.22 -.20 .11 -.06 -.16 1875 1924 0 .14 -.16 .29 -.03 .01 -.02 -.18 .20 .08 .13 .31* .13 -.17 -.03 -.03 .14 -.20 -.25 .05 -.08 -.31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1950 1999 0 .11 -.03 .06 .22 -.15 -.25 -.05 -.01 -.03 .07 .27* .09 - - - - - - - - - 1951 2000 0 .10 -.05 .08 .24 -.18 -.28 -.07 .00 .05 .08 .25* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .305) is: Lower 1983 -.018 1998 -.014 1994 -.013 1875 -.011 Higher 1976 .026 1912 .015 1948 .014 1930 .014 1844 to 1893 segment: Lower 1875 -.035 1887 -.032 1845 -.030 1882 -.027 Higher 1860 .070 1853 .034 1885 .031 1891 .026 1850 to 1899 segment: Lower 1887 -.040 1875 -.032 1859 -.031 1882 -.025 Higher 1860 .048 1853 .030 1885 .028 1891 .024 1875 to 1924 segment: Lower 1887 -.038 1875 -.034 1902 -.025 1882 -.025 Higher 1912 .043 1900 .025 1885 .024 1891 .020 1950 to 1999 segment: Lower 1983 -.062 1998 -.045 1994 -.039 1964 -.029 Higher 1976 .095 1950 .021 1956 .020 1982 .015 1951 to 2000 segment: Lower 1983 -.063 1998 -.046 1994 -.039 1964 -.030 Higher 1976 .099 1956 .021 1982 .017 1986 .017 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr13 1817 to 2000 184 years Series 13 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1817 1866 1 -.01 -.15 -.04 -.28 -.10 -.13 -.15 .02 -.02 .18 .18| .42*-.07 .13 .02 .07 -.16 -.04 -.19 .21 .17 1825 1874 1 -.03 -.09 -.05 -.14 -.14 -.21 -.12 -.14 .03 .13 .24| .36*-.03 .16 -.01 .04 -.26 -.03 -.20 .20 .16 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .462) is: Lower 1972 -.017 1822 -.014 1976 -.013 1850 -.013 Higher 1988 .072 1930 .021 1948 .011 1880 .007 1817 to 1866 segment: Lower 1822 -.044 1850 -.041 1832 -.034 1837 -.033 Higher 1834 .045 1853 .043 1833 .033 1845 .031 1825 to 1874 segment: Lower 1850 -.050 1832 -.038 1837 -.038 1870 -.038 Higher 1853 .048 1834 .041 1845 .029 1833 .029 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr15 1842 to 2000 159 years Series 14 [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .585) is: Lower 1878 -.034 1887 -.019 1994 -.014 1961 -.013 Higher 1988 .040 1930 .021 1948 .020 1859 .019 =================================================================================================================================== PlPr17 1830 to 2000 171 years Series 15 [A] Segment High -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 --------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1830 1879 -1 -.03 .21 -.06 .20 .11 .02 .14 .16 .15 .31* .14| .07 .02 -.16 -.13 -.20 -.26 -.03 .18 -.16 .02 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1950 1999 0 .04 .11 .12 .19 -.26 -.17 .00 .11 .04 -.16 .26*-.21 - - - - - - - - - 1951 2000 0 .04 .11 .13 .20 -.27 -.18 .00 .11 .06 -.16 .27* - - - - - - - - - - [B] Entire series, effect on correlation ( .326) is: Lower 1994 -.017 1957 -.016 1837 -.016 1866 -.013 Higher 1948 .056 1976 .019 1894 .014 1956 .012 1830 to 1879 segment: Lower 1837 -.055 1866 -.046 1833 -.033 1859 -.028 Higher 1834 .064 1853 .057 1860 .036 1850 .024 1950 to 1999 segment: Lower 1994 -.061 1957 -.057 1983 -.032 1979 -.015 Higher 1976 .080 1956 .052 1993 .019 1982 .017 1951 to 2000 segment: Lower 1994 -.060 1957 -.057 1983 -.034 1979 -.016 Higher 1976 .080 1956 .052 1993 .019 1982 .018 [E] Outliers 1 3.0 SD above or -4.5 SD below mean for year 1957 +3.2 SD =================================================================================================================================== PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: fin2 18:15 Sat 28 Aug 2004 Page 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- 1 PlPr01 1807 2000 194 8 1 .468 2.62 5.58 .971 .634 .251 2.68 .468 .036 3 2 PlPr02 1849 2000 152 7 0 .639 3.40 6.59 1.189 .608 .253 2.61 .354 -.006 2 3 PlPr03 1807 2000 194 8 0 .536 1.59 3.86 .817 .707 .294 2.54 .340 -.008 1 4 PlPr04 1847 2000 154 7 2 .401 1.74 4.47 .806 .608 .298 2.63 .450 -.009 1 5 PlPr05 1815 2000 186 8 2 .437 3.10 7.84 1.595 .744 .292 2.63 .419 -.034 1 6 PlPr06 1849 2000 152 7 2 .537 3.38 8.86 1.583 .704 .285 2.52 .364 .020 1 7 PlPr07 1861 2000 140 6 1 .488 2.85 5.55 1.143 .599 .292 2.60 .341 -.002 2 8 PLPr08 1850 2000 151 6 0 .499 3.09 7.23 1.306 .739 .257 2.58 .423 -.026 1 9 PlPr09 1849 2000 152 7 0 .614 2.67 5.60 .934 .472 .268 2.69 .481 .071 1 10 PlPr10 1841 2000 160 7 3 .403 2.37 5.17 .870 .543 .262 2.79 .540 .003 1 11 PlPr11 1807 2000 194 8 4 .302 2.21 3.99 .720 .308 .309 2.59 .356 .025 2 12 PlPr12 1844 2000 157 7 5 .305 2.67 5.64 .831 .522 .233 2.77 .468 -.012 1 13 PlPr13 1817 2000 184 8 2 .462 2.78 6.58 1.183 .718 .241 2.58 .369 .070 1 14 PlPr15 1842 2000 159 7 0 .585 2.91 5.95 1.090 .646 .255 2.74 .525 .042 1 15 PlPr17 1830 2000 171 7 3 .326 2.81 7.97 1.390 .752 .265 2.71 .368 -.035 1 --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- Total or mean: 2500 108 25 .463 2.66 8.86 1.090 .620 .271 2.79 .416 .009 - = [ COFECHA FIN2 COF ] = -