# California Current Winter Index (CCWI) 576 Year Reconstruction #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # NOTE: Please cite Publication, and Online_Resource and date accessed when using these data. # If there is no publication information, please cite Investigators, Title, and Online_Resource and date accessed. # # # Online_Resource: http://ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/17013 # # Original_Source_URL: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/black2014ccwi-marinebio.txt # # Description/Documentation lines begin with # # Data lines have no # # # Archive: Climate Reconstructions #-------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2014-09-19 #-------------------- # Title # Study_Name: California Current Winter Index (CCWI) 576 Year Reconstruction #-------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Black, B.A.; Sydeman, W.J.; Frank, D.C.; Griffin, D.; Stahle, D.W.; García-Reyes, M.; Rykaczewski, R.R.; Bograd, S.J.; Peterson, W.T. #-------------------- # Description_and_Notes # Description: A 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling. # # Dataset 1 is the Physical time series used to calculate California Current Winter Index (CCWI). Mean winter (Jan-Mar) upwelling index (m3 s-1 100m-1) # averaged across two locations: 36ºN, 122ºW and 39ºN, 125ºW (UW_36N_39N). Mean winter precipitation (inches) averaged across NOAA NCDC California Divisions # 4 and 6 (Div_4_6_precip). Winter sea level at San Francisco (1898-2008) calculated from 238,367 hourly observations; records were at least 95% complete # for each year except 1978 (34%). A positive linear trend (R2 = 0.46) was removed given its possible association to tectonic processes or anthropogenic # sea-level rise (sea_level_detrended); values are dimensionless and have a mean of one. Winter Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), defined as the difference # in sea level pressure anomalies (monthly sea level pressure minus climatology) between the North Pacific High [35N,130W] and Darwin, Australia [10S,130E]. # The California Current Winter Index (CCWI) is defined as the leading principal component of winter sea level, winter upwelling, and winter NOI. # # Monthly-averaged values of Coastal Upwelling Index were obtained from the NOAA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory at # http://www.pfel.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/upwelling/upwelling.html # # Monthly-averaged values of the Northern Oscillation Index were obtained from the NOAA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory at # http://www.pfel.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html # # San Francisco sea level data were obtained from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center at http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/ # # Monthly averaged precipitation data (California Divisions 4 and 6) were obtained from: the National Climatic Data Center at # http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp # # Dataset 2 is the Marine biological time series. Winter copepod index, common murre egg laying date, Cassin’s auklet egg laying date, common murre # fledgling success, a splitnose rockfish otolith chronology, and the leading principal component (PC1bio) for all these marine biological time series # except copepods. Rockfish chronologies were generated by applying standard dendrochronology techniques to otolith growth-increment widths. # Seabird egg laying dates and breeding success (offspring pair-1) are from the Farallon Islands, approximately 48 km west of San Francisco Bay # (37.7°N, 123.0°W). The Copepod Community Index is the leading axis of a Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling ordination performed on a matrix of copepod # species abundance. Samples were collected 9 km offshore of Newport, Oregon (44.651°N; 124.181°W) on a biweekly to monthly basis beginning in 1996. # # The splitnose rockfish chronology and supporting data are available at NOAA Paleoclimatology Sclerochronology section at # http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/sclerochronology.html; a description of chronology-development procedures can be found in: # B. A. Black et al., Global Change Biol. 17, 2536-2545 (2011). # # A description of the Copepod Community Index can be found in: # J. E. Keister, E. Di Lorenzo, C. A. Morgan, V. Combes, W. T. Peterson, Global Change Biol. 17, 2498-2511 (2011). # # A description of the seabird laying dates and breeding success can be found in: # I. Schroeder, W. J. Sydeman, N. Sarkar, S. J. Bograd, F. B. Schwing, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 393, 211-223 (2009) and # B. A. Black et al., Global Change Biol. 17, 2536-2545 (2011). # # # Dataset 3 is the California Current Winter Index (CCWI) reconstruction from tree-ring data (see Table S2 in Black et al. 2014 # for a complete list of tree-ring chronologies used in the reconstruction). A nested bootstrapping approach (n=10,000 iterations) # was repeated at each change in sample depth (3 to 16). For each iteration, chronologies were randomly selected with replacement # and averaged into a composite chronology. Calendar years shared with CCWI (1948-2003) were randomly sampled with replacement and # the CCWI reconstruction was predicted using a rise-to-maximum function: CCWI reconstruction = a*(1-exp(-b*oak composite chronology)). # The 14 ensemble medians (Figure S4) were spliced together to form the final nested reconstruction. The ensemble median (the reconstruction) # is labeled P50 and bolded; also shown are the 1st, 5th, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. # # Dataset 4 is the California Current Winter Index (CCWI) reconstruction running standard deviation. The running standard deviation (21-year window) # was calculated for each ensemble member of the CCWI reconstruction (see Methods). The median of these 10,000 runs is labeled P50 and bolded; # also shown are the 1st, 5th, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. # # #-------------------- # Publication # Authors: Bryan A. Black, William J. Sydeman, David C. Frank, Daniel Griffin, David W. Stahle, Marisol Garcia-Reyes, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Steven J. Bograd, William T. Peterson # Published_Date_or_Year: 2014-09-19 # Published_Title: Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem # Journal_Name: Science # Volume: 345 # Edition: # Issue: 6203 # Pages: 1498-1502 # DOI: 10.1126/science.1253209 # Online_Resource: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6203/1498.short # Full_Citation: # Abstract: Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest. #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: US National Science Foundation # Grant: 1130125 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration # Grant: Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: CALFED Ecosystem Restoration Program # Grant: ERP02-P30 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: NF-UBC Nereus Program # Grant: #------------------ # Site_Information # Site_Name: Central California Current Ecosystem # Location: North America>United States>California # Country: USA # Northernmost_Latitude: 39.0 # Southernmost_Latitude: 36.0 # Easternmost_Longitude: -121.0 # Westernmost_Longitude: -124.0 # Elevation: 0 m #------------------ # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Black2014CCWI-MarineBio # Earliest_Year: 1948 # Most_Recent_Year: 2010 # Time_Unit: AD # Core_Length: m # Notes: #------------------ # Chronology: # # # #---------------- # Variables # # Data variables follow that are preceded by "##" in columns one and two. # Data line variables format: Variables list, one per line, shortname-tab-longname-tab-longname components (9 components: what, material, error, units, seasonality, archive, detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data) # ##age_AD age, , , Year AD, , , , ,N ##murre_date Common Murre egg laying date, , , julian day, , , , ,N ##auklet_date Cassin's Auklet egg laying date, , , julian day, , , , ,N ##murre_success Common Murre fledgling success, , , Offspring per pair, , , , ,N ##splitnose_chronology Splitnose Rockfish otolith chronology, otolith growth-increment widths, , , , , , ,N ##PC1bio Leading principal component for marine biological time series, , , , , , , ,N ##CCIndex Copepod Community Index, , , , , , , leading axis of a Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling ordination performed on a matrix of copepod species abundance,N # #---------------- # Data: # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing Values: # age_AD murre_date auklet_date murre_success splitnose_chronology PC1bio CCIndex 1948 1.017 1949 1.019 1950 0.94 1951 0.949 1952 0.973 1953 1.121 1954 0.945 1955 1.109 1956 1.095 1957 1.013 1958 0.806 1959 1.01 1960 0.941 1961 1.017 1962 1.068 1963 0.936 1964 1.091 1965 0.947 1966 1.025 1967 0.986 1968 0.965 1969 0.953 1970 0.94 1.47868 1971 1.078 0.300681667 1972 143 100 0.78 1.009 -0.10775769 0.576273333 1973 141 98 0.78 0.949 -0.191901585 1974 138 87 0.91 1.131 0.815990659 1975 138 95 0.9 1.027 0.363148326 1976 137 90 0.75 1.019 0.233925043 1977 138 105 0.81 0.997 -0.011372593 1978 145 114 0.67 0.901 -0.875721308 1979 129 91 0.85 1.122 0.941020897 1980 135 113 0.9 0.975 0.027911546 1981 129 99 0.89 1.029 0.593336889 1982 134 97 0.9 1.047 0.526295172 1983 161 152 0.04 0.803 -3.197995199 1984 135 102 0.73 0.996 0.017034119 1985 129 94 0.8 1.005 0.468501527 1986 136 108 0.73 0.982 -0.151334335 1987 130 98 0.85 0.994 0.411928886 1988 120 87 0.89 1.011 1.024263142 1989 123 83 0.85 1.086 1.155612562 1990 123 98 0.82 0.958 0.49330222 1991 127 99 0.88 0.982 0.503331591 1992 149 165 0.08 0.97 -2.435033639 1993 131 124 0.75 1.009 -0.120967885 1994 125 107 0.82 1.045 0.551186048 1995 134 127 0.83 0.986 -0.222067101 1996 131 132 0.61 0.984 -0.521317135 1997 126 100 0.75 1.03 0.479855549 1.020365 1998 143 158 0.38 0.709 -2.486322804 1.98485 1999 126 92 0.82 1.122 0.982560742 1.39432 2000 131 101 0.82 1.088 0.573874632 1.15101 2001 127 97 0.81 1.005 0.503286268 1.101225 2002 124 84 0.77 1.056 0.901007767 1.125856667 2003 131 102 0.72 0.854 -0.2939933 1.345317778 2004 130 107 0.85 1.097 0.584993425 1.561643333 2005 144 124 0.51 0.915 -1.184190412 1.391461667 2006 138 106 0.4 1.084 -0.352392025 1.388675 2007 0.82 0.9085375 2008 0.1094 2009 0.328538333 2010 1.466745