# 700 Year El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Niño3.4 Index Reconstruction #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # NOTE: Please cite Publication, and Online_Resource and date accessed when using these data. # If there is no publication information, please cite Investigators, Title, and Online_Resource and date accessed. # # # Online_Resource: http://www.hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/paleox/f?p=519:1:::::P1_STUDY_ID:14632 # # Original_Source_URL: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/enso-li2013.txt # # Description/Documentation lines begin with # # Data lines have no # # # Archive: Climate Reconstructions #-------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2013-07-03 #-------------------- # Title # Study_Name: 700 Year El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Niño3.4 Index Reconstruction #-------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Li, J.; Xie, S.-P.; Cook, E.R.; Morales, M.S.; Christie, D.A.; Johnson, N.C.; Chen, F.; D'Arrigo, R.; Fowler, A.M.; Gou, X.; Fang, K. #-------------------- # Description_and_Notes # Description: An index of canonical El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability for the past seven centuries, derived from 2,222 tree-ring chronologies # from Asia, New Zealand, and North and South America. The reconstruction targets the prior winter (November-January, NDJ) Niño3.4 index, and covers 1301-2005. # SST anomalies (SSTAs) are relative to the mean of observed SSTs during 1971-2000. # #-------------------- # Publication # Authors: Jinbao Li, Shang-Ping Xie, Edward R. Cook, Mariano S. Morales, Duncan A. Christie, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Fahu Chen, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Anthony M. Fowler, Xiaohua Gou, and Keyan Fang # Published_Date_or_Year: 2013-07-02 # Published_Title: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries # Journal_Name: Nature Climate Change # Volume: # Edition: Published online 02 July 2013 # Issue: # Pages: # DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1936 # Online_Resource: # Full_Citation: # Abstract: Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections. #------------------ # Publication # Authors: Jinbao Li, Shang-Ping Xie, Edward R. Cook, Gang Huang, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Fei Liu, Jian Ma, and Xiao-Tong Zheng # Published_Date_or_Year: 2011-05-06 # Published_Title: Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium # Journal_Name: Nature Climate Change # Volume: 1 # Edition: # Issue: 2 # Pages: 114-118 # DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1086 # Online_Resource: # Full_Citation: # Abstract: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) conditions in the tropical Pacific at intervals of 2-8 years. The amplitude of ENSO variability affects the occurrence and predictability of climate extremes around the world, but our ability to detect and predict changes in ENSO amplitude is limited by the fact that the instrumental record is too short to characterize its natural variability. Here we use the North American Drought Atlas - a database of drought reconstructions based on tree-ring records - to produce a continuous, annually resolved record of ENSO variability over the past 1,100 years. Our record is in broad agreement with independent, ENSO-sensitive proxy records in the Pacific and surrounding regions. Together, these records indicate that ENSO amplitude exhibits a quasi-regular cycle of 50-90 years that is closely coupled to the tropical Pacific mean state. Anomalously warm conditions in the eastern Pacific are associated with enhanced ENSO variability, consistent with model simulations. The quasi-periodic ENSO amplitude modulation reported here offers a key observational constraint for improving models and their prediction of ENSO. #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: US National Science Foundation # Grant: #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: National Basic Research Program of China # Grant: 2012CB955600 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration # Grant: #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology # Grant: #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: FONDECYT # Grant: 1120965 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: CONICYT/FONDAP # Grant: 15110009 #------------------ # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: CONICET and IAI # Grant: CRN2047 #------------------ # Site_Information # Site_Name: Nino3.4 # Location: Ocean>Pacific Ocean>Eastern Pacific Ocean # Country: # Northernmost_Latitude: 5.0 # Southernmost_Latitude: -5.0 # Easternmost_Longitude: -120.0 # Westernmost_Longitude: -170.0 # Elevation: 0 m #------------------ # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Li2013Nino3.4 # Earliest_Year: 1301 # Most_Recent_Year: 2005 # Time_Unit: AD # Core_Length: m # Notes: #------------------ # Chronology: # # # # #---------------- # Variables # # Data variables follow (have no #) # Data line variables format: Variables one per line, shortname-tab- 9 components: what, material, error, units, seasonality, archive, detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data ## age_AD age, , , AD, , , , ,N ## sst.anom Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, , , deg C, annual, , vs. 1971-2000 mean, ,N #---------------- # Data: # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing Values: age_AD sst.anom 1301 0.398 1302 0.097 1303 0.676 1304 -0.137 1305 -0.586 1306 0.828 1307 0.346 1308 -1.753 1309 -0.23 1310 0.137 1311 -0.255 1312 -0.195 1313 0.449 1314 1.502 1315 -0.783 1316 -1.802 1317 -1.696 1318 -0.801 1319 0.182 1320 -0.346 1321 0.738 1322 -0.412 1323 -0.77 1324 -1.079 1325 -1.481 1326 -0.142 1327 0.287 1328 0.255 1329 0.201 1330 0.63 1331 -0.123 1332 -0.112 1333 0.056 1334 -0.231 1335 -0.179 1336 -1.965 1337 0.097 1338 -0.356 1339 -0.188 1340 -0.839 1341 -0.179 1342 0.732 1343 -0.313 1344 -0.887 1345 0.03 1346 0.452 1347 0.798 1348 -0.096 1349 -0.204 1350 -0.558 1351 0.286 1352 0.066 1353 -0.03 1354 0.405 1355 -0.44 1356 -0.018 1357 0.544 1358 0.564 1359 0.114 1360 -0.819 1361 0.546 1362 0.296 1363 -0.343 1364 0.802 1365 -0.233 1366 0.393 1367 -0.399 1368 1.407 1369 -0.77 1370 -0.89 1371 -1.12 1372 -1.228 1373 -1.052 1374 1.325 1375 -1.322 1376 -0.653 1377 -0.574 1378 -0.123 1379 -0.613 1380 0.24 1381 1.424 1382 -1.018 1383 -1.436 1384 0.099 1385 0.77 1386 0.137 1387 -0.823 1388 -0.561 1389 -1.418 1390 -1.839 1391 -0.665 1392 0.305 1393 0.635 1394 0.861 1395 -0.229 1396 -0.77 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1831 -1.517 1832 -0.168 1833 0.526 1834 0.722 1835 -0.82 1836 -0.785 1837 0.009 1838 0.238 1839 0.658 1840 0.813 1841 0.385 1842 -0.155 1843 0.618 1844 0.595 1845 0.538 1846 0.775 1847 -0.912 1848 -0.439 1849 -0.327 1850 -0.318 1851 0.001 1852 -0.152 1853 0.415 1854 0.183 1855 -0.913 1856 0.568 1857 -0.735 1858 -0.625 1859 -0.143 1860 -0.135 1861 -1.4 1862 -2.104 1863 -1.064 1864 -1.473 1865 0.454 1866 0.46 1867 0.09 1868 -0.516 1869 2.413 1870 -0.07 1871 -2.095 1872 -0.792 1873 -0.789 1874 -0.439 1875 -1.087 1876 -0.078 1877 -0.453 1878 2.504 1879 -0.769 1880 -1.809 1881 -1.042 1882 -0.503 1883 -0.646 1884 -0.388 1885 0.191 1886 1.005 1887 -0.896 1888 0.109 1889 1.872 1890 -0.611 1891 -1.212 1892 -0.353 1893 -2.193 1894 -1.192 1895 -1.174 1896 0.024 1897 1.288 1898 -0.05 1899 -1.838 1900 0.152 1901 0.376 1902 -1.401 1903 0.689 1904 -0.549 1905 0.725 1906 0.757 1907 -0.269 1908 0.426 1909 -1.464 1910 -0.787 1911 -1.628 1912 0.353 1913 -0.149 1914 1.646 1915 0.904 1916 -0.907 1917 -3.724 1918 -2.315 1919 1.305 1920 1.855 1921 0.562 1922 -0.656 1923 -0.281 1924 0.107 1925 -1.416 1926 1.021 1927 -0.268 1928 -1.062 1929 -1.541 1930 0.041 1931 1.954 1932 -0.198 1933 -0.873 1934 -1.257 1935 -0.042 1936 -0.296 1937 0.18 1938 -0.357 1939 -1.244 1940 -1.207 1941 0.633 1942 -0.136 1943 -1.579 1944 -1.632 1945 0.314 1946 -0.672 1947 0.122 1948 -0.584 1949 -0.687 1950 -0.51 1951 -1.265 1952 1.027 1953 -1.263 1954 -1.202 1955 -0.755 1956 -1.75 1957 -1.403 1958 1.441 1959 0.454 1960 -0.516 1961 -1.045 1962 -1.159 1963 -1.765 1964 1.472 1965 -1.609 1966 0.422 1967 -1.018 1968 -0.912 1969 0.528 1970 -0.177 1971 -2.883 1972 -1.19 1973 1.629 1974 -1.55 1975 -0.173 1976 -1.676 1977 0.121 1978 0.72 1979 1.22 1980 0.233 1981 0.81 1982 -0.2 1983 1.367 1984 -0.469 1985 -0.716 1986 -0.467 1987 1.768 1988 1.622 1989 -0.987 1990 -1.024 1991 0.071 1992 2.361 1993 2.296 1994 0.482 1995 -1.202 1996 -1.373 1997 -0.957 1998 1.623 1999 -0.475 2000 -0.982 2001 -1.011 2002 0.546 2003 1.782 2004 0.61 2005 0.564