Trail Gulch update, Colorado  - co649 
Additional Information 
Connie Woodhouse  Mark Losleben  Jeff Lukas  Kurt Chowanski         

Purpose of Collection: Climatology - Snowpack reconstruction

Reference: 
Pederson, G.T., S.T. Gray, C.A. Woodhouse, J.L. Betancourt, D.B. Fagre, 
J.S. Littell, E. Watson, B.H. Luckman, and L.J. Graumlich. 2011. 
The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera. 
Sciencexpress, Published online 9 June 2011. 
DOI: 10.1126/science.1201570

COFECHA output: 



      Chronology file name   : CO649.CRN
      Measurement file name  : CO649.RWL
      Date checked           : 07JUN11
      Checked by             : B. Bauer
      Beginning year         :  996
      Ending year            : 2002
      Principal investigators: Connie Woodhouse  Mark Losleben  Jeff Lukas  Kurt Chowanski     
      Site name              : Trail Gulch update
      Site location          : Colorado     
      Species information    : PIED PINYON
      Latitude               :   3943
      Longitude              : -10659
      Elevation              : 2210m

      Series intercorrelation: 0.876
      Avg mean sensitivity   : 0.523
      Avg standard deviation : 0.200
      Avg autocorrelation    : 0.476
      Number dated series    : 68
      Segment length tested  : 50

      Number problem segments: 0
      Pct problem segments   : 0.00



 PART 5:  CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Trail Gulch update                                    16:44  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page   5

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Correlations of  50-year dated segments, lagged  25 years

 Flags:  A = correlation under   .3281 but highest as dated;  B = correlation higher at other than dated position



 Seq Series  Time_span    975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450

                         1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474 1499

 --- -------- ---------  ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

   1 trx101    996 1209   .92  .92  .96  .95  .93  .96  .77  .65  .72

   2 trx102    996 1045   .92

   3 trx102   1067 1203                  .87  .79  .92  .85  .72  .76

   4 trx061   1310 1560                                                                    .82  .81  .86  .88  .89  .90  .84

   5 trx062   1363 1536                                                                              .88  .88  .85  .84  .90

   6 trx011   1308 1443                                                                    .75  .87  .90  .84  .85

   7 trx012   1308 1426                                                                    .73  .85  .84  .84  .84

   8 trx051   1443 1557                                                                                             .83  .76

   9 trx131   1180 1359                                           .62  .77  .83  .86  .86  .88  .87

  10 trx131   1462 1579                                                                                                  .81

  11 trx132   1180 1406                                           .59  .81  .86  .87  .94  .90  .88  .94  .93

  12 trx151   1170 1414                                      .70  .76  .86  .90  .93  .97  .95  .92  .93  .90

  13 trx152   1170 1342                                      .72  .76  .81  .84  .91  .94  .90

  14 trx211   1290 1579                                                               .90  .91  .91  .90  .90  .83  .82  .81

  15 trx213   1226 1579                                                     .78  .83  .88  .90  .87  .83  .86  .85  .86  .81

  16 trx212   1290 1443                                                               .90  .90  .90  .89  .88  .83

  17 trx212   1464 1565                                                                                                  .79

  18 trx221   1333 1450                                                                         .89  .89  .90  .90  .90

  19 trx081   1367 1579                                                                              .91  .92  .87  .83  .86

  20 trx082   1275 1353                                                               .91  .92  .92

  21 trx082   1371 1579                                                                              .86  .91  .90  .92  .87

  22 trx121   1160 1447                                      .75  .81  .84  .91  .91  .87  .82  .84  .90  .90  .88

  23 trx072   1180 1283                                           .85  .85  .74  .77

  24 trx071   1190 1350                                           .91  .92  .90  .88  .83  .85  .85

  25 trx161   1268 1440                                                          .80  .76  .79  .83  .84  .87  .89

  26 trx122   1160 1443                                      .75  .87  .90  .90  .93  .93  .88  .85  .92  .91  .90

  39 trg222   1408 1999                                                                                        .79  .88  .85

  41 trg032   1469 1962                                                                                                  .73

  42 trg031   1429 1996                                                                                             .47  .70

  43 trg212   1446 1512                                                                                             .85  .83

  49 trg221   1402 1983                                                                                        .52  .81  .80

 Av segment correlation   .92  .92  .96  .91  .86  .94  .81  .72  .76  .84  .85  .87  .89  .86  .87  .89  .89  .84  .83  .81

 PART 5:  CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Trail Gulch update                                    16:44  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page   6

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Correlations of  50-year dated segments, lagged  25 years

 Flags:  A = correlation under   .3281 but highest as dated;  B = correlation higher at other than dated position



 Seq Series  Time_span   1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950

                         1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999

 --- -------- ---------  ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

   4 trx061   1310 1560   .84  .87  .89

   5 trx062   1363 1536   .93  .91

   8 trx051   1443 1557   .72  .84  .87

  10 trx131   1462 1579   .87  .89  .88  .86

  14 trx211   1290 1579   .80  .79  .78  .79

  15 trx213   1226 1579   .79  .76  .78  .77

  17 trx212   1464 1565   .79  .68  .64

  19 trx081   1367 1579   .89  .90  .91  .89

  21 trx082   1371 1579   .91  .88  .89  .88

  27 trg231   1819 1999                                                                    .96  .96  .95  .90  .92  .96  .95

  28 trg131   1677 1999                                           .73  .76  .80  .84  .74  .75  .84  .80  .85  .84  .83  .93

  29 trg121   1650 1999                                      .84  .87  .92  .90  .85  .85  .82  .88  .92  .87  .86  .91  .92

  30 trg042   1499 1999   .83  .86  .85  .84  .90  .87  .89  .90  .90  .90  .91  .88  .90  .92  .91  .92  .83  .84  .90  .89

  31 trg241   1809 1999                                                                    .87  .92  .93  .93  .87  .89  .86

  32 trg021   1521 1999        .71  .70  .72  .77  .83  .90  .93  .93  .94  .92  .91  .91  .88  .88  .89  .87  .87  .87  .83

  33 trg132   1706 1999                                                .84  .89  .88  .83  .80  .82  .87  .86  .87  .91  .95

  34 trg242   1821 1999                                                                    .87  .86  .87  .88  .83  .83  .89

  35 trg041   1536 1999             .78  .87  .80  .79  .85  .86  .91  .92  .91  .92  .93  .94  .95  .95  .89  .87  .89  .90

  36 trg122   1628 1999                                 .78  .77  .88  .93  .93  .93  .87  .84  .83  .88  .88  .85  .90  .79

  37 trg011   1670 1999                                      .82  .84  .90  .91  .89  .91  .89  .91  .94  .90  .86  .88  .88

  38 trg142   1797 1999                                                               .84  .83  .87  .91  .91  .91  .89  .85

  39 trg222   1408 1999   .86  .85  .83  .88  .87  .88  .90  .91  .88  .88  .91  .88  .83  .87  .92  .93  .90  .92  .94  .93

  40 trg232   1720 1999                                                .94  .94  .94  .88  .87  .92  .91  .84  .87  .94  .94

  41 trg032   1469 1962   .77  .84  .84  .86  .90  .86  .84  .93  .88  .88  .91  .94  .89  .81  .86  .87  .79  .76  .81

  42 trg031   1429 1996   .83  .86  .81  .86  .91  .87  .88  .93  .94  .94  .95  .95  .93  .91  .91  .92  .90  .88  .80  .82

  43 trg212   1446 1512   .83

  44 trg212   1521 1650        .78  .82  .81  .85  .84  .83

  45 trg211   1560 1700                  .75  .64  .72  .77  .75  .75

  46 trg211   1810 1999                                                                    .84  .89  .91  .83  .76  .76  .86

  47 trg012   1678 1999                                           .87  .94  .96  .94  .91  .91  .92  .95  .95  .89  .85  .89

  48 trg022   1548 1999             .72  .72  .67  .64  .87  .90  .92  .93  .89  .90  .84  .82  .90  .92  .90  .86  .88  .89

  49 trg221   1402 1983   .83  .85  .80  .81  .82  .88  .91  .89  .84  .82  .89  .92  .79  .80  .89  .93  .95  .93  .91  .91

  50 trg141   1582 1999                       .90  .87  .89  .89  .90  .88  .84  .85  .85  .88  .92  .93  .79  .73  .85  .89

  51 trg671   1559 2002                  .91  .88  .81  .74  .79  .88  .89  .91  .87  .89  .86  .82  .93  .91  .89  .85  .86

  52 trg611   1563 2002                  .91  .87  .82  .82  .85  .86  .87  .91  .90  .88  .88  .91  .94  .91  .88  .90  .89

  53 trg821   1625 2002                                 .82  .83  .88  .89  .89  .92  .88  .82  .85  .89  .87  .79  .82  .41

  54 trg842   1772 2002                                                          .50  .69  .69  .79  .67  .80  .86  .69  .71

  55 trg621   1690 2002                                           .83  .88  .87  .85  .83  .83  .87  .90  .85  .74  .74  .74

  56 trg661   1840 2002                                                                         .89  .91  .87  .82  .86  .91

  57 trg662   1847 2002                                                                         .93  .92  .85  .79  .81  .87

  58 trg851   1910 2002                                                                                        .85  .83  .83

  59 trg872   1742 2002                                                     .79  .80  .80  .82  .89  .92  .77  .78  .89  .86

  60 trg622   1670 2002                                      .77  .83  .85  .90  .86  .84  .87  .90  .87  .82  .88  .89  .84

  61 trg871   1724 2001                                                .77  .78  .76  .71  .68  .82  .87  .75  .82  .82  .80

  62 trg652   1514 2002        .88  .87  .89  .88  .89  .93  .95  .89  .86  .90  .93  .89  .85  .92  .96  .90  .87  .87  .88

  63 trg831   1705 2002                                                .89  .90  .86  .83  .78  .86  .91  .95  .91  .84  .86

  64 trg801   1785 2002                                                               .82  .81  .84  .87  .78  .71  .76  .84

  65 trg642   1529 2002             .80  .83  .91  .93  .88  .90  .91  .90  .94  .90  .86  .89  .94  .93  .87  .87  .90  .88

  66 trg632   1800 2002                                                                    .84  .92  .89  .83  .83  .83  .86

  67 trg832   1701 2002                                                .86  .80  .80  .88  .82  .90  .95  .86  .79  .80  .85

  68 trg651   1508 2002        .78  .83  .87  .86  .86  .94  .96  .93  .94  .88  .76  .77  .81  .91  .94  .86  .79  .87  .86

 Av segment correlation   .83  .83  .81  .83  .84  .84  .86  .87  .87  .89  .89  .87  .85  .84  .89  .90  .86  .84  .85  .85

 PART 5:  CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Trail Gulch update                                    16:44  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page   7

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Correlations of  50-year dated segments, lagged  25 years

 Flags:  A = correlation under   .3281 but highest as dated;  B = correlation higher at other than dated position



 Seq Series  Time_span   1975

                         2024

 --- -------- ---------  ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

  51 trg671   1559 2002   .87

  52 trg611   1563 2002   .89

  53 trg821   1625 2002   .35

  54 trg842   1772 2002   .70

  55 trg621   1690 2002   .72

  56 trg661   1840 2002   .90

  57 trg662   1847 2002   .87

  58 trg851   1910 2002   .84

  59 trg872   1742 2002   .86

  60 trg622   1670 2002   .85

  61 trg871   1724 2001   .80

  62 trg652   1514 2002   .89

  63 trg831   1705 2002   .84

  64 trg801   1785 2002   .84

  65 trg642   1529 2002   .88

  66 trg632   1800 2002   .86

  67 trg832   1701 2002   .85

  68 trg651   1508 2002   .85

 Av segment correlation   .82

 PART 7:  DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Trail Gulch update                                               16:44  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page  14

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



                                                Corr   //-------- Unfiltered --------\\  //---- Filtered -----\\

                           No.    No.    No.    with   Mean   Max     Std   Auto   Mean   Max     Std   Auto  AR

 Seq Series   Interval   Years  Segmt  Flags   Master  msmt   msmt    dev   corr   sens  value    dev   corr  ()

 --- -------- ---------  -----  -----  -----   ------ -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  --

   1 trx101    996 1209    214      9      0    .882    .42   1.33   .210   .548   .471   2.55   .367  -.021   1

   2 trx102    996 1045     50      1      0    .916    .55   1.28   .258   .366   .454   2.69   .517  -.006   1

   3 trx102   1067 1203    137      6      0    .859    .29    .76   .146   .336   .556   2.54   .441  -.010   1

   4 trx061   1310 1560    251     10      0    .870    .35   1.04   .181   .435   .562   2.53   .384   .021   1

   5 trx062   1363 1536    174      7      0    .900    .26    .92   .156   .513   .585   2.70   .450   .011   1

   6 trx011   1308 1443    136      5      0    .820    .81   2.53   .423   .650   .415   2.76   .462  -.079   1

   7 trx012   1308 1426    119      5      0    .804    .80   1.90   .386   .687   .384   2.62   .443   .000   1

   8 trx051   1443 1557    115      5      0    .796    .53   1.38   .257   .581   .384   2.78   .559   .036   2

   9 trx131   1180 1359    180      7      0    .789    .42    .92   .176   .674   .315   2.55   .417  -.019   3

  10 trx131   1462 1579    118      5      0    .881    .28    .85   .189   .332   .771   2.63   .477  -.005   2

  11 trx132   1180 1406    227      9      0    .844    .34    .85   .171   .686   .400   2.51   .374  -.046   1

  12 trx151   1170 1414    245     10      0    .897    .47   1.33   .280   .586   .497   2.51   .399  -.054   1

  13 trx152   1170 1342    173      7      0    .875    .48   1.38   .258   .510   .520   2.43   .380  -.056   1

  14 trx211   1290 1579    290     12      0    .870    .47   1.66   .294   .527   .597   2.67   .477  -.014   1

  15 trx213   1226 1579    354     14      0    .851    .45   1.65   .319   .547   .654   2.69   .423  -.012   4

  16 trx212   1290 1443    154      6      0    .884    .45   1.26   .244   .346   .571   2.73   .571  -.021   1

  17 trx212   1464 1565    102      4      0    .816    .29    .74   .184   .464   .711   2.51   .538  -.014   2

  18 trx221   1333 1450    118      5      0    .881    .40   1.59   .231   .645   .422   2.61   .533  -.038   1

  19 trx081   1367 1579    213      9      0    .889    .30    .89   .180   .458   .631   2.81   .448   .013   2

  20 trx082   1275 1353     79      3      0    .901    .47   1.32   .196   .268   .390   2.93   .528   .018   1

  21 trx082   1371 1579    209      9      0    .897    .29    .70   .165   .318   .683   2.63   .540  -.026   2

  22 trx121   1160 1447    288     11      0    .874    .43   1.70   .289   .811   .456   2.52   .322  -.023   1

  23 trx072   1180 1283    104      4      0    .783    .39    .68   .133   .409   .345   2.47   .438  -.016   1

  24 trx071   1190 1350    161      7      0    .854    .49    .88   .190   .558   .312   2.52   .425  -.027   1

  25 trx161   1268 1440    173      7      0    .846    .30    .59   .122   .374   .435   2.46   .369  -.003   4

  26 trx122   1160 1443    284     11      0    .883    .40   1.25   .215   .700   .411   2.58   .325  -.038   1

  27 trg231   1819 1999    181      7      0    .957    .44    .83   .171   .255   .447   2.45   .360  -.013   1

  28 trg131   1677 1999    323     12      0    .814    .63   1.35   .222   .564   .295   2.44   .335   .005   1

  29 trg121   1650 1999    350     13      0    .892    .46   1.13   .198   .339   .458   2.42   .337  -.011   1

  30 trg042   1499 1999    501     20      0    .900    .32   1.04   .184   .594   .530   2.52   .306  -.024   1

  31 trg241   1809 1999    191      7      0    .885    .42   1.16   .217   .421   .542   2.53   .414  -.008   1

  32 trg021   1521 1999    479     19      0    .868    .28    .73   .127   .314   .512   2.56   .346  -.016   1

  33 trg132   1706 1999    294     11      0    .865    .60   1.55   .241   .624   .315   2.46   .314   .010   1

  34 trg242   1821 1999    179      7      0    .904    .44   1.38   .221   .495   .481   2.45   .330   .014   1

  35 trg041   1536 1999    464     18      0    .893    .35    .90   .172   .402   .519   2.67   .382  -.029   1

  36 trg122   1628 1999    372     14      0    .876    .36    .83   .138   .373   .406   2.52   .336   .010   1

  37 trg011   1670 1999    330     13      0    .911    .60   1.51   .275   .623   .371   2.36   .269  -.018   1

  38 trg142   1797 1999    203      8      0    .899    .42    .89   .197   .496   .455   2.49   .400  -.032   1

  39 trg222   1408 1999    592     23      0    .894    .41   1.81   .262   .446   .664   2.71   .383  -.040   1

  40 trg232   1720 1999    280     11      0    .929    .32    .77   .139   .277   .494   2.51   .366  -.022   1

  41 trg032   1469 1962    494     20      0    .841    .29   1.29   .246   .762   .702   2.57   .399  -.019   1

  42 trg031   1429 1996    568     22      0    .861    .35   1.28   .229   .672   .597   2.59   .385  -.014   1

  43 trg212   1446 1512     67      3      0    .844    .48   1.00   .192   .435   .406   2.78   .558  -.010   2

  44 trg212   1521 1650    130      6      0    .881    .29    .79   .183   .527   .637   2.51   .450   .007   1

  45 trg211   1560 1700    141      6      0    .817    .19    .48   .124   .294   .793   2.46   .395  -.009   1

  46 trg211   1810 1999    190      7      0    .917    .29    .73   .153   .348   .592   2.35   .358  -.020   1

  47 trg012   1678 1999    322     12      0    .916    .54   1.64   .251   .597   .405   2.47   .296  -.029   1

  48 trg022   1548 1999    452     18      0    .874    .31    .68   .118   .264   .407   2.46   .288  -.020   1

 PART 7:  DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Trail Gulch update                                               16:44  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page  15

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



                                                Corr   //-------- Unfiltered --------\\  //---- Filtered -----\\

                           No.    No.    No.    with   Mean   Max     Std   Auto   Mean   Max     Std   Auto  AR

 Seq Series   Interval   Years  Segmt  Flags   Master  msmt   msmt    dev   corr   sens  value    dev   corr  ()

 --- -------- ---------  -----  -----  -----   ------ -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  --

  49 trg221   1402 1983    582     23      0    .861    .27    .96   .180   .512   .689   2.53   .302  -.026   1

  50 trg141   1582 1999    418     16      0    .878    .28    .71   .145   .420   .560   2.45   .331  -.035   1

  51 trg671   1559 2002    444     18      0    .899    .30    .99   .197   .520   .650   2.54   .381  -.002   1

  52 trg611   1563 2002    440     18      0    .892    .52   1.31   .232   .383   .480   2.45   .338  -.006   1

  53 trg821   1625 2002    378     15      0    .838    .43    .89   .176   .388   .419   2.70   .368   .022   1

  54 trg842   1772 2002    231     10      0    .767    .22    .54   .112   .536   .447   2.48   .324   .007   1

  55 trg621   1690 2002    313     13      0    .867    .27    .65   .127   .497   .469   2.39   .260  -.011   2

  56 trg661   1840 2002    163      7      0    .913    .30    .91   .190   .428   .746   2.52   .455   .014   1

  57 trg662   1847 2002    156      7      0    .910    .48   1.22   .258   .451   .583   2.32   .358  -.008   1

  58 trg851   1910 2002     93      4      0    .880    .45   1.40   .278   .755   .390   2.31   .344  -.045   1

  59 trg872   1742 2002    261     11      0    .862    .42   1.31   .238   .514   .535   2.59   .384  -.006   1

  60 trg622   1670 2002    333     14      0    .862    .26    .78   .149   .448   .547   2.60   .298  -.024   1

  61 trg871   1724 2001    278     12      0    .821    .32    .98   .176   .390   .558   2.60   .399  -.017   2

  62 trg652   1514 2002    489     20      0    .925    .33    .82   .181   .413   .591   2.55   .270  -.013   1

  63 trg831   1705 2002    298     12      0    .888    .53   1.30   .245   .533   .424   2.49   .324   .007   2

  64 trg801   1785 2002    218      9      0    .850    .52   1.15   .226   .423   .424   2.46   .340   .013   1

  65 trg642   1529 2002    474     19      0    .922    .32   1.08   .164   .406   .571   2.47   .335  -.031   1

  66 trg632   1800 2002    203      8      0    .912    .31    .66   .144   .234   .559   2.42   .340  -.033   1

  67 trg832   1701 2002    302     12      0    .873    .44    .97   .186   .205   .497   2.58   .318  -.006   1

  68 trg651   1508 2002    495     20      0    .890    .28    .74   .152   .353   .634   2.51   .345  -.012   1

 --- -------- ---------  -----  -----  -----   ------ -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  --

 Total or mean:          18340    733      0    .876    .38   2.53   .200   .476   .523   2.93   .366  -.015

